Cramer: "Stay Off the Shorts' Overcrowded Side"
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Caro enginheiro...
...no imediato até concordo com o artigo, o que para mim até é momento raro, visto que do cramer só costuma sair péssimas análises e comentários).
Quanto ao put/call é apenas de equity se vires de index está bem diferente. Se analisares variações intradiárias desses numeros com reguaridade ate vês fundamento no que ele diz, se vires o short interest da equity e nao put/call de opções ainda lhe vais dar mais razão. A tendencia desde janeiro é marcadamete de queda , continuamos nessa trend mas é preciso muita calma a avaliar o curtíssimo prazo.
E concordo com ele qd diz "umas vendas sim para já shorts acho prematuro."
Vamos deixar o mercado abrandar antes de dar sinal de venda, é o meu contributo. Até porque o nasdaq 100/qqq se portou lindamente até ao target esperado, agora deixa o péssimismo esfriar...ou o mercado dê um sinal de inversão inequívoco(1 fecho abaixo da media móvel exponencial dos 10 dias por exemplo pelo menos, antes de dizer que as subidas acabaram).
abraço
Quanto ao put/call é apenas de equity se vires de index está bem diferente. Se analisares variações intradiárias desses numeros com reguaridade ate vês fundamento no que ele diz, se vires o short interest da equity e nao put/call de opções ainda lhe vais dar mais razão. A tendencia desde janeiro é marcadamete de queda , continuamos nessa trend mas é preciso muita calma a avaliar o curtíssimo prazo.
E concordo com ele qd diz "umas vendas sim para já shorts acho prematuro."
Vamos deixar o mercado abrandar antes de dar sinal de venda, é o meu contributo. Até porque o nasdaq 100/qqq se portou lindamente até ao target esperado, agora deixa o péssimismo esfriar...ou o mercado dê um sinal de inversão inequívoco(1 fecho abaixo da media móvel exponencial dos 10 dias por exemplo pelo menos, antes de dizer que as subidas acabaram).
abraço
scuba
Fear blind us the opportunity, greed blind us the danger!
Fear blind us the opportunity, greed blind us the danger!
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Crammer
Não consigo concordar com ele, quando diz:
"With this many bears, with this many put-buyers, ..."
Basta ver o seguinte gráfico e a tabela anexa...
Que te parece?
Um abraço
enginheiro
"With this many bears, with this many put-buyers, ..."
Basta ver o seguinte gráfico e a tabela anexa...
Que te parece?
Um abraço
enginheiro
- Anexos
-
- bullsbears 250804.JPG (40.93 KiB) Visualizado 364 vezes
-
- PutcallList 250804.JPG (59.08 KiB) Visualizado 365 vezes
enginheiro
Ulimwengu mzury ume zaliwa
"A perfect world has been created, it's already in existence" (in swahili)
Ulimwengu mzury ume zaliwa
"A perfect world has been created, it's already in existence" (in swahili)
Cramer: "Stay Off the Shorts' Overcrowded Side"
"Stay Off the Shorts' Overcrowded Side"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
8/25/2004 8:17 AM EDT
"A lotta people are thinking something bad is going to happen. From the looks of the bull-bear surveys, the amount of puts being bought and the number of raids I hear people trying to mount, they all are positioning for something, some event that could be a crusher.
So what happens if we don't get one? What happens if all we have is forgiveness between now and Labor Day?
With this many bears, with this many put-buyers, I think we still will go higher. As usual, the rise will be based solely on sentiment, with a sprinkling of no news and a no-doubt defiant president who seems like he's done enough damage with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (or whatever the heck it's called) to actually give a confident convention. This president's record of speaking about the markets is decidedly mixed, but Wall Street loves tough talk on terror, and I am sure we will get it by the not-so-swift-boatload.
I know people want discrete reasons to buy, but I think that we have so many discrete reasons not to buy and so many people insuring their positions that you can bet the short side is way too crowded here. I say make sales, but shorting?
Too dangerous, unless you get that event. And I don't foresee one happening. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
8/25/2004 8:17 AM EDT
"A lotta people are thinking something bad is going to happen. From the looks of the bull-bear surveys, the amount of puts being bought and the number of raids I hear people trying to mount, they all are positioning for something, some event that could be a crusher.
So what happens if we don't get one? What happens if all we have is forgiveness between now and Labor Day?
With this many bears, with this many put-buyers, I think we still will go higher. As usual, the rise will be based solely on sentiment, with a sprinkling of no news and a no-doubt defiant president who seems like he's done enough damage with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (or whatever the heck it's called) to actually give a confident convention. This president's record of speaking about the markets is decidedly mixed, but Wall Street loves tough talk on terror, and I am sure we will get it by the not-so-swift-boatload.
I know people want discrete reasons to buy, but I think that we have so many discrete reasons not to buy and so many people insuring their positions that you can bet the short side is way too crowded here. I say make sales, but shorting?
Too dangerous, unless you get that event. And I don't foresee one happening. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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