Mohan 25/08
Enviado: 25/8/2004 13:32Market Force: Bullish-Caution. Watch for early, lower moves to be supportive of higher prices later in the session. Trade above 1103.00 and holding should move above 1108 and then stretch to 1113.00. Early higher prices that hold below 1100.00 should sell off again.
ESU04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, August 25, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 8.70 Value Area
Range: 3.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,101.50-1,100.50 Sell Pivot
High 1,101.00
Open 1,100.70
1,097.70
Close 1,097.40
1,094.10
1,092.75-1,093.75 Buy Pivot
Low 1,092.30
1,084.40 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, August 24, 2004:
1)S@1100.25/B@1095.50 +4.74
2)S@1094.75/B@1093.75 +1.00
TOTAL: +5.75
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us for Wednesday's Action.
We have a double sided Headline Call today because we are at a point in the Day to Day sequencing and Market Force indicators where we will either make an explosive upside move or resume a stronger downside move below 1090.00.
Which way we go will be determined by the opening half hour action and the High 5 readings. More on this below.
Tuesday's market pretty much followed our script at least in the morning session as prices pulled back off the early Sell Pivot target we shorted. However, we did NOT get the larger scale sell off I was expecting.
This is due to us being in a Buy Mode currently so the support is coming in and throwing the Sell Force into aberration. Hence, our double sided call today. This is what happens when you have the Daily Market Force in contrast with the underlying shorter term Market Force (1-3 weeks).
Later in the session on Tuesday this daily/underlying Market Force "arm wrestling match" showed up as we had a pretty wild swing range of about 5 points up off the lows to 1098 area, back down to the lows and swooped up again to the 1098 area on the close.
Here are my closing Wrap Up comments for what we did in Live trading recommendations on Tuesday.
"We entered the market early today shorting the Sell Pivot target near 1100.00 based on our Headline Call for Tuesday to be a sell off day.
Prices started pulling back after our entry, ran down near 1098, and then pushed back over 1101.00.
We held out and gradually the erosion of prices set in as planned. We had been looking at 1093.00 initially as a goal lower and then fine tuned it to include 1093.00, 92.50, and then 1091.25 as a good potential.
We covered our original short from 1100.25 at 1095.50 for a +4.75 gain. After some time the charting pattern changed a bit and we wanted to re-short getting short at 1094.75.
Price made a move down below 1093 to 1092.25, found support and started pushing higher. We covered em up at 1093.75 for a +1.00 gain.
Later things turned bullish as the Buy Mode is still in force and prices gradually moved all the way back up to 1098.00 before selling off again down to 1093.50.
From there it was another climb back into the close to 1097.00 but after our 2nd trade did not pan out to the downside in a more decisive fashion we sensed the aberration starting. we stood aside due to the lack of clarity in the trend at that point."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is a bit of a challenge to forecast as we have the strong underlying bullish Market Force conflicting with a Daily Sell Pattern.
We saw this interupted Tuesday on the low in which I was originally looking for a larger scale Sell Off as expressed in yesterday's Headline Call.
For today we are either going to see the fufillment of that Sell Off with a 2nd Level drop OR we are going to see a full on Rally I expect.
How to determine which will occur?
First- If we get a LOWER OPENING and early, lower run this should perpetuate and re-enforce the upper movement of prices. If this occurs and we move above 1100.00 and specifically 1103.00 AND HOLD ABOVE this price with a bullish High 5 then we are going higher...probably crossing over the 1107-8 level stretching towards 1113.00
2nd- If we get a flat to higher opening and an early, strong rally then we could hit the resistance up near that 1105.75 (+4.25 stop/pivot on the Sell Pivot target)zone. We will have to watch this opening carefully and compare these prices with the Hour One High and Low to see what's going on.
Overall, it appears we are ready to rally some more basically because when the opportunity is all set up with the Market Force indicators such as it was yesterday to get slammed lower...prices find support and push higher. We even did a double bottom test on that 1093.00 area which I first described as a barrier on the early Live Update Posts near the opening.
So watch for these 2 scenarios and be ready to either Sell the BreakOut with the High 5 neutral and specifically TRIN and Nasdaq weaker OR with a strong presence in these indicators Buy the BreakOut. As mentioned, a run up towards 1108 and then 1113.00 could be possible under that setup.
Value Area: 1,094.10 - 1,097.70
Holding above 1098.00 is bullish today. If we run lower and prices struggle to get back above 1094.00 and we have a bearish High 5 then we are going to get our 2nd Level Sell off which was delayed from Tuesday's Headline Call.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,092.75 - 1,093.75
Below the Value area lies this zone of support.
If we cannot hold this area then 1088.50 is in the cards. Running through that to the downside then we will revisit the old support at 1085 and then 1079.00
Sell Pivot Target: 1,101.50 - 1,100.50
If prices run up here and "hang up" without a pullback then we are most likely going higher and will move through the stop/pivot at 1105.75.
It will also depend on if the BreakOut Hour One high is located near here or above and how prices are reacting to that.
Be ready to a possible BreakOut buy today and if we get that above this 1101.00 area then we are going to progress up towards 1108 most likely.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,084.40
We are still in a bullish Mode combined with the Buy Mode which still has room to grow.
We dropped to 1092-93 on Tuesday and prices found support so based on today's Headline Call and commentary we will be watching for a decision today on all of this.
Pro Trader's Action
We will be a little extra patient today and make sure the market is giving us clear signals as to bias.
Hitting the Hour One high first is going to be the challenge. Are they going to breakout and rally or run up a few points above the BreakOut and fizzle out.
We will rely on the High 5 and the Trailblazer charting indicators to tell us which patterns are being accepted or rejected.
Look forward to seeing you in the action. Mohan
ESU04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, August 25, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 8.70 Value Area
Range: 3.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,101.50-1,100.50 Sell Pivot
High 1,101.00
Open 1,100.70
1,097.70
Close 1,097.40
1,094.10
1,092.75-1,093.75 Buy Pivot
Low 1,092.30
1,084.40 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, August 24, 2004:
1)S@1100.25/B@1095.50 +4.74
2)S@1094.75/B@1093.75 +1.00
TOTAL: +5.75
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us for Wednesday's Action.
We have a double sided Headline Call today because we are at a point in the Day to Day sequencing and Market Force indicators where we will either make an explosive upside move or resume a stronger downside move below 1090.00.
Which way we go will be determined by the opening half hour action and the High 5 readings. More on this below.
Tuesday's market pretty much followed our script at least in the morning session as prices pulled back off the early Sell Pivot target we shorted. However, we did NOT get the larger scale sell off I was expecting.
This is due to us being in a Buy Mode currently so the support is coming in and throwing the Sell Force into aberration. Hence, our double sided call today. This is what happens when you have the Daily Market Force in contrast with the underlying shorter term Market Force (1-3 weeks).
Later in the session on Tuesday this daily/underlying Market Force "arm wrestling match" showed up as we had a pretty wild swing range of about 5 points up off the lows to 1098 area, back down to the lows and swooped up again to the 1098 area on the close.
Here are my closing Wrap Up comments for what we did in Live trading recommendations on Tuesday.
"We entered the market early today shorting the Sell Pivot target near 1100.00 based on our Headline Call for Tuesday to be a sell off day.
Prices started pulling back after our entry, ran down near 1098, and then pushed back over 1101.00.
We held out and gradually the erosion of prices set in as planned. We had been looking at 1093.00 initially as a goal lower and then fine tuned it to include 1093.00, 92.50, and then 1091.25 as a good potential.
We covered our original short from 1100.25 at 1095.50 for a +4.75 gain. After some time the charting pattern changed a bit and we wanted to re-short getting short at 1094.75.
Price made a move down below 1093 to 1092.25, found support and started pushing higher. We covered em up at 1093.75 for a +1.00 gain.
Later things turned bullish as the Buy Mode is still in force and prices gradually moved all the way back up to 1098.00 before selling off again down to 1093.50.
From there it was another climb back into the close to 1097.00 but after our 2nd trade did not pan out to the downside in a more decisive fashion we sensed the aberration starting. we stood aside due to the lack of clarity in the trend at that point."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is a bit of a challenge to forecast as we have the strong underlying bullish Market Force conflicting with a Daily Sell Pattern.
We saw this interupted Tuesday on the low in which I was originally looking for a larger scale Sell Off as expressed in yesterday's Headline Call.
For today we are either going to see the fufillment of that Sell Off with a 2nd Level drop OR we are going to see a full on Rally I expect.
How to determine which will occur?
First- If we get a LOWER OPENING and early, lower run this should perpetuate and re-enforce the upper movement of prices. If this occurs and we move above 1100.00 and specifically 1103.00 AND HOLD ABOVE this price with a bullish High 5 then we are going higher...probably crossing over the 1107-8 level stretching towards 1113.00
2nd- If we get a flat to higher opening and an early, strong rally then we could hit the resistance up near that 1105.75 (+4.25 stop/pivot on the Sell Pivot target)zone. We will have to watch this opening carefully and compare these prices with the Hour One High and Low to see what's going on.
Overall, it appears we are ready to rally some more basically because when the opportunity is all set up with the Market Force indicators such as it was yesterday to get slammed lower...prices find support and push higher. We even did a double bottom test on that 1093.00 area which I first described as a barrier on the early Live Update Posts near the opening.
So watch for these 2 scenarios and be ready to either Sell the BreakOut with the High 5 neutral and specifically TRIN and Nasdaq weaker OR with a strong presence in these indicators Buy the BreakOut. As mentioned, a run up towards 1108 and then 1113.00 could be possible under that setup.
Value Area: 1,094.10 - 1,097.70
Holding above 1098.00 is bullish today. If we run lower and prices struggle to get back above 1094.00 and we have a bearish High 5 then we are going to get our 2nd Level Sell off which was delayed from Tuesday's Headline Call.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,092.75 - 1,093.75
Below the Value area lies this zone of support.
If we cannot hold this area then 1088.50 is in the cards. Running through that to the downside then we will revisit the old support at 1085 and then 1079.00
Sell Pivot Target: 1,101.50 - 1,100.50
If prices run up here and "hang up" without a pullback then we are most likely going higher and will move through the stop/pivot at 1105.75.
It will also depend on if the BreakOut Hour One high is located near here or above and how prices are reacting to that.
Be ready to a possible BreakOut buy today and if we get that above this 1101.00 area then we are going to progress up towards 1108 most likely.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,084.40
We are still in a bullish Mode combined with the Buy Mode which still has room to grow.
We dropped to 1092-93 on Tuesday and prices found support so based on today's Headline Call and commentary we will be watching for a decision today on all of this.
Pro Trader's Action
We will be a little extra patient today and make sure the market is giving us clear signals as to bias.
Hitting the Hour One high first is going to be the challenge. Are they going to breakout and rally or run up a few points above the BreakOut and fizzle out.
We will rely on the High 5 and the Trailblazer charting indicators to tell us which patterns are being accepted or rejected.
Look forward to seeing you in the action. Mohan