CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Efectivamente um venda nos 1.100/1.101 teria sido uma boa entrada.

Senti-me tentado no entanto não avancei com receio dos baixos volumes haver algum "player" facilmente puxar o índice para cima não deixando o mercado seguir o seu curso.

Market Force: Bearish. Stay on sell side today for larger scale sell off.
ESU04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Tuesday, August 24, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 7.00 Value Area
Range: 3.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,101.50
1,100.60
1,100.25-1,099.25 Sell Pivot
Open 1,099.50
1,097.20
Close 1,096.20
Low 1,094.50
1,093.25-1,094.25 Buy Pivot
1,082.30 Pit Bull MA



Trade Setup Summary for Monday, August 23, 2004:
S@1098.75/B@1095.75 +3.00 pts.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's Action.

On Monday we were looking ideally to short just above the BreakOut for a pullback in prices.

That's exactly what we got except the market did not give us the additional strength we were looking for above the Hour One pivot. Still we were able to jump aboard and make some money as prices came down.

Small trading range of actual price movement on Monday. Here are my Wrap Up comments from the Live Update Service

"The market opened flat today and immediately ran lower to form a morning low at 1096.25.

Overall we wanted to get short today on an attempt to BreakOut of the highs after the first hour. 1100.50 was the Hour One high and we were looking for a price above that.

After hitting the BreakOut prices pulled back forming a Trailblazer down pattern. We got short on the reflex bounce and held short.

Prices pulled back to the BreakDown at 1096.25 and then bounced back up to 1100.50 putting in a minor top at 1101.75. We had a stop in at 1104.00 and held short through the attempt to rally again later to find prices pulling back again to 1096.00 and slightly lower.

Because we had not pegged today as a strong sell off into the close type day we took profits just above our calculated lows at 1094.50 at 1095.50/.75 for a +3.00 profit.

Prices later pulled back to 1094.25 at our estimated lows and then rallied back higher into the close hitting 1097.00 and settling near 1096.25. Overall our plan and Headline Call was succesful today although the market only traded in a small 5 point range."

Today's Call & Briefing:
All of our signals today are calling for a Sell off from these levels and ideally on a flat to higher opening and early push higher in prices.

We are going to be willing to hit the Sell Pivot Target today as we want to get short and are willing to take that risk of shorting the 1100.00 price.

Now what we want to do is be sure IF we get short at that price is to see prices pullback right away and not stall and push higher.

Taking these early Buy/Sell Pivots increases our risk and today is an ideal setting for going short early.

If the early short does not work out we will simply get out and reposition short at the appropriate spot in relation to the Hour One pivots. That will be either shorting the BreakOut or looking to short the BreakDown depending on how the High 5 look.

The best thing that could happen today for us would be to see a flat to higher opening and a mild push higher (not a strong, spikey rally) that hits that 1100-1101.00 area on the Sell Pivot. A quick pullback and resistance under that Sell Pivot and we would have a decent looking trade. Let's see how they open and run first.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: If we do not get the cooperative opening-first run described above then we are going to WAIT for the first hour to finish and hit the Hour One pivots as described above.

If we move down to the Hour One low FIRST then we may need to employ a special strategy of looking for a 3 pts rally or so off of the Hour One low and then a return to the BreakDown with a Bearish High 5. That should set up a punch lower below the B/D. We'll keep an eye on the exact action on the Live Update Service.

Value Area: 1,097.20 - 1,100.60
Trade above the Value Area that falls back into the VA is bearish especially pushing below and holding below 1097.00.

Key for today will be holding below 1094.00...yesterday's low and today's Buy Pivot target. See Below for more on this.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,093.25 - 1,094.25
If we sell off from a higher opening then we want to watch for weakness on this price zone here. Going flat and stalling here is the first sign...IE: failure to bounce.

Then watch for a move below 1093.00 and then taking out 1089.00 we should head lower. A lot depends on where we end up with the Hour One low.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,100.25 - 1,099.25
We are going to attempt to go short at or near this area early today in the first hour.

Live Update Subscribers BE READY TO TRADE NEAR THE OPENING OR IN FIRST 20 MINUTES.

They need to hold below 1104.50 to keep the Sell Side intact so we will be watching that number with ideally our stop tighter in relation to that.

However, this is the risk we take hitting these early Buy/Sell Pivots.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,082.30
If we start falling back today we could come close to this number heading into the close if today ends up being as Bearish as I expect.

Watch the High 5 for a Mega Bear appearance and if we are neutral or only mildly bearish then support will most likely come in without a full on erosion into the close.

The Day to Day sequencing pattern is calling for slow erosion into the close today however.

Pro Trader's Action
We are going to look to stay on the Sell Side of the market today UNLESS the High 5 tells us we are crazy by showing Mega Bullish readings.

Expect a slightly bullish appearance early as we look to short the 1100.00+ area and get some lower price action.

Not sure if we will be able to scalp that early short or not. Will update on the Live Service. Depends on the High 5 and speed of the pullback from this zone IF we get that. Look to take 5 points if you can get em.

I realize that we are looking to short the Sell Pivot target early WITHOUT there having been 2 days up. The reason is we have ALL of the Market Force indicators including the Day to Day sequencing pattern calling for a stronger sell off today. If they open higher and run higher we gotta short that action...its worth the risk.

Good Luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action.

Mohan