Cramer: "Bad Habits Still Hold Sway in Market"
Enviado: 23/8/2004 14:53Cramer, que esteve muito bem a antecipar o ressalto dos últimos dias, defende agora que esta altura é mais propícia a vendas do que a compras.
"Bad Habits Still Hold Sway in Market"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
8/23/2004 9:49 AM EDT
"The genesis of that last rally seems obvious: too much negativity. We saw this pattern repeatedly in the bear market of 2001-2002, where we would go down until the oscillator turned negative and the bulls dropped to 43% on the Institutional Investor survey. Then we would bounce and bounce hard, just like we did last week.
Of course, a few weeks later we would be back to where we were, and I think that's going to hold true again. That's because the reasons we have been going down in the first place haven't been cured. We still have oil too high, a less-than-accommodative Federal Reserve and deficient earnings.
In other words, we went down because of the fundamentals, we snapped back because we don't ever go down in a straight line and now we are at levels where, again, there is too much bullishness and we are no longer oversold. That we could be repeating this same market of 2001-2002, big declines punctuated by short sharp rallies based on short-covering, is pretty amazing. You'd think that we would have learned and profited from the 2001-2002 experience and would recognize that these rallies are artifice, based on thin trading and overly pessimistic outlooks. You would think that people would understand to trim into rallies so they can buy into the ensuing selloffs instead of buying up after the rallies occur.
If anything, though, the bad behavior is even more ingrained.
If we somehow could get a big decline in oil, which is what the oil stocks seem to be predicting, we could be on the verge of something real and sustainable.
But a $2 decline in oil isn't it.
Better to be a seller than a buyer this week. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
"Bad Habits Still Hold Sway in Market"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
8/23/2004 9:49 AM EDT
"The genesis of that last rally seems obvious: too much negativity. We saw this pattern repeatedly in the bear market of 2001-2002, where we would go down until the oscillator turned negative and the bulls dropped to 43% on the Institutional Investor survey. Then we would bounce and bounce hard, just like we did last week.
Of course, a few weeks later we would be back to where we were, and I think that's going to hold true again. That's because the reasons we have been going down in the first place haven't been cured. We still have oil too high, a less-than-accommodative Federal Reserve and deficient earnings.
In other words, we went down because of the fundamentals, we snapped back because we don't ever go down in a straight line and now we are at levels where, again, there is too much bullishness and we are no longer oversold. That we could be repeating this same market of 2001-2002, big declines punctuated by short sharp rallies based on short-covering, is pretty amazing. You'd think that we would have learned and profited from the 2001-2002 experience and would recognize that these rallies are artifice, based on thin trading and overly pessimistic outlooks. You would think that people would understand to trim into rallies so they can buy into the ensuing selloffs instead of buying up after the rallies occur.
If anything, though, the bad behavior is even more ingrained.
If we somehow could get a big decline in oil, which is what the oil stocks seem to be predicting, we could be on the verge of something real and sustainable.
But a $2 decline in oil isn't it.
Better to be a seller than a buyer this week. "
(in www.realmoney.com)