Mohan 16/08/04
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Mohan 16/08/04
Market Force: Bullish. Flat to lower opening is especially bullish today. Watch for a BreakOut Buy that sticks also.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, August 13, 2004:
1)B@1064.75/S@1061.50 -3.25
2)B@1063.50/S@1062.00 -1.50
TOTAL: -4.75
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome back from the weekend.
On Friday we were looking for the market to be bullish and bounce off of any lower, early moves.
We ended up with an extremely challenging day where the market stubbornly held lower all day until the final half hour of trading when prices began to climb in a very convoluted manner gradually reaching a close near the highs above the opening price.
Here are my Wrap Up comments on the action.
"We were overall looking for the market to be bullish today on lower, early drops in prices.
We got the lower drop on a flat opening and on the way up were projecting that we would see the Hour One high get hit first.
On a bounce off the lows we got long at 1064.75 and saw prices take off to the upside. With the TRIN coming off its highs at that time were were expecting we would get a move up above the Hour One high at 1067.50 and were looking to short 1069.00 as advised on our update.
Prices traded through the Hour One high by a tick and fell off from there. Expecting that we would head higher we had our mental stop at 1063.00. Prices pulled back to our mental stop and after hovering there a while swiftly dropped through it so we got out at 1061.50 for a -3.25 loss.
We waited some time and after making a new low and pushing back up we entered long again with fill prices coming in around 1063.50. From there it was somewhat of a grind as prices moved up a bit but then mostly just sat at or slightly beneath our price not giving us any information to go on.
After pressing lower below 1062.00 on 2 occasions and then bouncing I decided to cut our risk on the trade with the downside pressure asserting itself consistently. We got out at 1062.00 for a -1.50 loss.
Really a very difficult day to trade as all of our projections called for the market moving off the lows into the higher 3rd of the range in the close. Prices pressed down further hitting 1160.00 about 40 minutes before the session ended and then gradually rose into the close near the highs in the last minutes.
A correct and great plan but just very difficult trying to hold long today."
Today's Call & Briefing:
I am expecting today will show more bullish colors then we saw on Friday's challenging trade.
We will be looking once again for a flat to lower opening to be bullish for the market today and at the same time will be prepared to buy a bullish BreakOut if the High 5 are supporting that.
The key will be to see how things act in the first half hour of trading. If we find graudal support coming in with prices finding a bottom that holds this will be the beginning confirmation.
On the overnight globex trading prices are back down near the 1062.00 area so we may get another attempt at a washout low but this should help the case for higher prices today.
We will be looking to buy the Hour One low or just below that if we get an early drop or we will be preparing for a BreakOut move higher.
Value Area: 1,063.40 - 1,067.00
Trade that holds below the Value Area but then rises back into it will be a good sign and if we push above 1067.00 after such a move this will confirm an upside move of larger porportions could be underway.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,061.75 - 1,062.75
This area could be early support but with the overnight trade down near 1062 I would watch 1058.00 as stronger support.
Compare this price zone with the Hour One low and we should be able to get long in here unless we have an opening crunch which propels prices lower.
We would still be looking to get long but would find this area of 1062.00 as new resistance for a rally only if we got an early panic drop down below 1057.00
Sell Pivot Target: 1,069.25 - 1,068.25
Depending on how we open and move early this could be a launching pad for higher prices. If we get an early crunch lower and especially if we run below 1057.00 then instead this Sell Pivot target will be new upside resistance.
We are in the process of forming a bottom and it is expected that we are either ready to take off or need just a bit more bottom testing. That could occur early this morning.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,078.80
Still way below the Pit Bull but if we get a BreakOut Buy today going then we could close in on this Pit Bull rapidly.
If indeed the market shows signs of starting an upward path then we could blow through this price to the upside very quickly.
Pro Trader's Action
Right now even though interest rates rose moderately stocks are still attractive verses the bonds as the S&P500's earnings are above the 10 year Treasury yield.
The 4th year Presidential cycle is intact with expectations for a stronger 4th quarter but there have defintely been some obstacles to overcome this year.
Investments have been tough this year with the changing markets that we have discussed elaborately. The top CTA so far this year in commodities trading is up less than 2% (Futures magazine stats) and mutual funds invested in stocks are struggling.
I have done a tremendous amount of research this year in terms of determining how to trade the new markets of 2004 in relation to how our older methods used to play out.
The High 5 have been the most interesting challengers with radical divergences in many of the ways we used to read them. Those who have followed our methods for some time know that viewing the High 5 indicators correctly is crucial in determining how we will trade the Hour One pivots.
We have seen BreakOut buys this year with the TRIN over 1.40 which is completely nuts and we have seen steep sell offs (like last week) with the TRIN trading 1.40 or higher. BreakOut's have failed with the Nasdaq up +20 points with all the other High 5 lining up yet the Market Force indicators calling for Bearishness and we have shorted these setups in what used to be classic BreakOuts.
Now a days (and possibly today) the key is to have the foresight in seeing a potential BreakOut buy coming and be willing to get long if the High 5 are not Bearish and APPEAR like they can go from mildly bullish or neutral to full on Mega Bullish 2-3 hours later in the session.
Many times this year the Hour One lows have gotten hammered lower for 6-8 points or more with the High 5 at the Hour One low in neutral shape...certainly not Bear Ugly like we used to refer to in 2003.
So on all sides systems, methods, long term forecasting methods (such as the Presidential cycle), and intermediate appproaches have all had to do some reconfiguring.
Using our Market Force indicators (which are still powerful daily forecasting tools) we can usually predict the outcome of the next day in advance.
The key is being able to combine that forecast with the High 5 in the live markets along with the Trailblazer charting methods which provide an additional excellent indicator/overlay on the MF indicators and High 5.
I am expecting things to become more and more succesful using this approach in the immediate future.
I greatly appreciate your participation in our work here and look forward to the coming months and years.
Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Economic Calendar
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, August 13, 2004:
1)B@1064.75/S@1061.50 -3.25
2)B@1063.50/S@1062.00 -1.50
TOTAL: -4.75
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome back from the weekend.
On Friday we were looking for the market to be bullish and bounce off of any lower, early moves.
We ended up with an extremely challenging day where the market stubbornly held lower all day until the final half hour of trading when prices began to climb in a very convoluted manner gradually reaching a close near the highs above the opening price.
Here are my Wrap Up comments on the action.
"We were overall looking for the market to be bullish today on lower, early drops in prices.
We got the lower drop on a flat opening and on the way up were projecting that we would see the Hour One high get hit first.
On a bounce off the lows we got long at 1064.75 and saw prices take off to the upside. With the TRIN coming off its highs at that time were were expecting we would get a move up above the Hour One high at 1067.50 and were looking to short 1069.00 as advised on our update.
Prices traded through the Hour One high by a tick and fell off from there. Expecting that we would head higher we had our mental stop at 1063.00. Prices pulled back to our mental stop and after hovering there a while swiftly dropped through it so we got out at 1061.50 for a -3.25 loss.
We waited some time and after making a new low and pushing back up we entered long again with fill prices coming in around 1063.50. From there it was somewhat of a grind as prices moved up a bit but then mostly just sat at or slightly beneath our price not giving us any information to go on.
After pressing lower below 1062.00 on 2 occasions and then bouncing I decided to cut our risk on the trade with the downside pressure asserting itself consistently. We got out at 1062.00 for a -1.50 loss.
Really a very difficult day to trade as all of our projections called for the market moving off the lows into the higher 3rd of the range in the close. Prices pressed down further hitting 1160.00 about 40 minutes before the session ended and then gradually rose into the close near the highs in the last minutes.
A correct and great plan but just very difficult trying to hold long today."
Today's Call & Briefing:
I am expecting today will show more bullish colors then we saw on Friday's challenging trade.
We will be looking once again for a flat to lower opening to be bullish for the market today and at the same time will be prepared to buy a bullish BreakOut if the High 5 are supporting that.
The key will be to see how things act in the first half hour of trading. If we find graudal support coming in with prices finding a bottom that holds this will be the beginning confirmation.
On the overnight globex trading prices are back down near the 1062.00 area so we may get another attempt at a washout low but this should help the case for higher prices today.
We will be looking to buy the Hour One low or just below that if we get an early drop or we will be preparing for a BreakOut move higher.
Value Area: 1,063.40 - 1,067.00
Trade that holds below the Value Area but then rises back into it will be a good sign and if we push above 1067.00 after such a move this will confirm an upside move of larger porportions could be underway.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,061.75 - 1,062.75
This area could be early support but with the overnight trade down near 1062 I would watch 1058.00 as stronger support.
Compare this price zone with the Hour One low and we should be able to get long in here unless we have an opening crunch which propels prices lower.
We would still be looking to get long but would find this area of 1062.00 as new resistance for a rally only if we got an early panic drop down below 1057.00
Sell Pivot Target: 1,069.25 - 1,068.25
Depending on how we open and move early this could be a launching pad for higher prices. If we get an early crunch lower and especially if we run below 1057.00 then instead this Sell Pivot target will be new upside resistance.
We are in the process of forming a bottom and it is expected that we are either ready to take off or need just a bit more bottom testing. That could occur early this morning.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,078.80
Still way below the Pit Bull but if we get a BreakOut Buy today going then we could close in on this Pit Bull rapidly.
If indeed the market shows signs of starting an upward path then we could blow through this price to the upside very quickly.
Pro Trader's Action
Right now even though interest rates rose moderately stocks are still attractive verses the bonds as the S&P500's earnings are above the 10 year Treasury yield.
The 4th year Presidential cycle is intact with expectations for a stronger 4th quarter but there have defintely been some obstacles to overcome this year.
Investments have been tough this year with the changing markets that we have discussed elaborately. The top CTA so far this year in commodities trading is up less than 2% (Futures magazine stats) and mutual funds invested in stocks are struggling.
I have done a tremendous amount of research this year in terms of determining how to trade the new markets of 2004 in relation to how our older methods used to play out.
The High 5 have been the most interesting challengers with radical divergences in many of the ways we used to read them. Those who have followed our methods for some time know that viewing the High 5 indicators correctly is crucial in determining how we will trade the Hour One pivots.
We have seen BreakOut buys this year with the TRIN over 1.40 which is completely nuts and we have seen steep sell offs (like last week) with the TRIN trading 1.40 or higher. BreakOut's have failed with the Nasdaq up +20 points with all the other High 5 lining up yet the Market Force indicators calling for Bearishness and we have shorted these setups in what used to be classic BreakOuts.
Now a days (and possibly today) the key is to have the foresight in seeing a potential BreakOut buy coming and be willing to get long if the High 5 are not Bearish and APPEAR like they can go from mildly bullish or neutral to full on Mega Bullish 2-3 hours later in the session.
Many times this year the Hour One lows have gotten hammered lower for 6-8 points or more with the High 5 at the Hour One low in neutral shape...certainly not Bear Ugly like we used to refer to in 2003.
So on all sides systems, methods, long term forecasting methods (such as the Presidential cycle), and intermediate appproaches have all had to do some reconfiguring.
Using our Market Force indicators (which are still powerful daily forecasting tools) we can usually predict the outcome of the next day in advance.
The key is being able to combine that forecast with the High 5 in the live markets along with the Trailblazer charting methods which provide an additional excellent indicator/overlay on the MF indicators and High 5.
I am expecting things to become more and more succesful using this approach in the immediate future.
I greatly appreciate your participation in our work here and look forward to the coming months and years.
Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Economic Calendar
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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