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[Dwer]

Market Force: Bullish. Look to buy early drops in the market for higher prices later in the session. CAUTION with early rallies as we expect early higher prices to hang up until 1:30est and then pull back strongly.


Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, August 10, 2004:
B@1070.00/S@1072.75 +2.75 gain.

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Tuesday was a scheduled FOMC meeting day and interest rate announcement day.

Under nearly all circumstances we will avoid trading on those days or putting out a Headline Call.

I opted to look for a long position Tuesday as the setup in our Market Force indicators for opening up a new Buy Mode was very strong.

Here are my Wrap Up comments from our Live Update Service about what occured.

"We came in today looking for either an early price washout to the downside or minus the presence of such a move a price rise into the close.

With the FOMC announcement today we knew today would be somewhat of a Wild Card but bucking our tradition for today only we wanted to try and get long after seeing the strong High 5. That idea was confirmed and we entered a long position at 1070.00 after prices ran through the Hour One Highs.

Prices pushed higher right up to the 2:00est time frame prior to the announcement. Without the stronger response I was hoping for with a move up to 1076.00 to let us get out of our long, I opted for selling the position before the announcement hit.

We put out a sell recommendation and our recommended fill was near 1072.75 for a +2.75 gain.

The FED raised interest rates a quarter point, prices dropped just a bit to the opening price area at 1068.00 and then took off ultimately moving almost 10 points higher from those lows basically ignoring the interest rate hike as being bearish.

This was some additional proof of a new Buy Mode opening up that we discussed on Monday's Morning Call briefing and again today."

Today's Call & Briefing:
The Market Force is bullish today and we will be looking either to Buy an early pullback after the first hour OR we could see prices rally right off the opening.

If prices rally right off the opening then the move higher could be limited depending on the High 5 and the reaction to the Hour One pivot. If this occurs and we hit the Hour One high FIRST we would expect prices to move a bit higher, stall and hang up near the highs. After 1:30est we would begin to look for prices to weaken and pullback off those highs.

Now we have predicted a scenario like this many times in the past with great accuracy and our longer term subscribers have seen this occur.

It happens under specific conditions in the Day to Day sequencing pattern, the Market Force indicators and the level in the Buy or Sell mode.

As is natural with the markets sometimes although we are set up for a market move like this it may not occur.

If prices open lower and run down to test the lows first BUT HOLD ABOVE 1067.00 then we should start rallying again. Actually, this would be the most bullish scenario of all.

Look to Buy the Hour One low and depending on the High 5 just slightly lower IF we move lower off of a flat opening.

If we take off to the upside right away off the opening then we will be looking to see if we hit the Hour One High pivot first. If so, then we may just wait, let prices push higher, and then take a short later in the session IF the High 5 are not all that bullish in their development throughout the day.

Value Area: 1,067.20 - 1,074.50
Prices holding above 1074.50 is bullish. Pulling back but holding above 1067.00 continues the bullish new mode but if they drift below that Caution is urged as we could fizzle out and head lower again.

1067.00 is a very important key number at this point in the Day to Day sequence pattern.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,069.25 - 1,070.25
Watch for this area for support and compare with the Hour One low pivot. Especially watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1065.00.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,081.00 - 1,080.00
Here is a key area to overcome to continue the bullish action. +4.25 stop/pivot comes in at 1085.25 and should hold prices back today unless we get a Mega Bullish High 5.

If not, this could become our key shorting price area.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,087.90
The above 1085.25 (+4.25 stop/pivot above the Sell Pivot target) is right below this important Pit Bull number and as such we should find double resistance up here for today.

Look for a pullback off this number that could end up being substantial IF we rally first as mentioned in Today's Call.

Pro Trader's Action
I've outlined the 2 scenarios we will be looking for today.

I would rather expect that we would pullback first today which would be the more bullish scenario.

If so, look for support on the lows above 1067.00 and let's see if we can get a 2nd tier rally going.

If they jump up early then we have to look for a spot to either scalp a few points higher but then look to go short for the later pullback.

Good Luck today with your trades and I'll see you in the action.

All the best, Mohan