Fisco continua a tributar mais-valias se a herança se mantiver indivisa

[Dwer]

Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. If we get a higher opening and early rally above 1078.00 look for selling to continue. On a lower open or early drop watch for support after first hour on the lows to be a buyer.

Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, August 5, 2004:
1)S@1095.25/B@1092.25 +3.00

2)B@1092.00/S@1087.00 -5.00

3)B@1087.25/S@1085.50 -1.75 TOTAL -3.75

...UNOFFICIAL TRADE B@1082.75-84.00 (elongated candle upon signal)/S@1084.00 to 86.00 scalp for 0 up to +3.50

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

We wanted to come in as buyers on the lows after some washout in the prices if the High 5 were not Mega Bearish.

We shorted above the BreakDown looking for that washout and with the High 5 neutral we covered and went long 2 pts. below the Hour One low as per our plan.

Well, the High 5 faked us out a bit as the slow erosion kicked in with prices stalling near the lows and eventually crumbling later in the session.

Here is my description of the day's action from our Wrap Up comments on the close.

"The market opened about flat today to slightly up and started pulling back right away.

In our Headline Call we were calling for an early drop in the markets which, after the first hour or so, we would be using to get long on a Cautious Bullish expectation for higher prices off the lows.

To faciliate that call we started by shorting at 1095.25 on a Trailblazer signal to catch the move lower below the Hour One low of 1094.00. When the market made a clear 3rd Level move down on Trailblazer we covered the short -2pts below the BreakDown and went long taking +3 pts. profit on the trade.

We waited and held the short with our stop at 1087.00 looking for 1089.00 to hold up the markets. We were using 1088.00 as a mental stop and prices went down and stalled right there. These are often difficult decision points as your mental stop is hit, prices stall and bouce a bit, but there is no clear directional bias. So in trying to hold out prices eventually dropped and tapped our 1087.00 stop for a -5.00 loss.

We attempted one more long entry as we dropped below 1087.00 and reflexed back getting long at 1087.25. Prices attempted to rally moving towards 1089 at one point but kept eroding. Our stop at 1085 was approached 3 times and we had expected the triple bottom would see some more solid buying. No cigar as prices dipped down again and we cut the trade with fills coming in at 1085.50 for a -1.75 loss.

We offered an UNOFFICAL re-entry (unofficial as the markets had become very volatile and we had been stopped out twice on the long side) later on a huge spike candle lower in which the fills were between 1082.75-1084.00.

Prices leaped off this area towards 1086.00 before flopping out again and heading lower. We had put out a post suggesting moving the stop to 1084.00 before they dropped and that price was hit. So scalpers who wanted to continue to trade after our 3rd trade was complete could have made between +3.50pts. and breakeven depending on where they got in. The trade balance is shown above.


Today's Call & Briefing:
After a large drop in the markets like we had on Thursday the next day is often better left alone for trading as the drop creates a lot of whip saw trading. Add to that the fact that it is Friday and you have a formula for whip saw action.

With that in mind we may stand aside today and keep our powder dry as they say.

Otherwise, those who want to trade the action (which we may if the clarity is there) would want to look for a higher open and early run up in prices as bearish. With such a move we would expect prices to continue lower until there is a washout BELOW the 1078.00 low area of Thursday.

You may recall that I had mentioned last week that the first level goal lower of the Sell Mode would be 1071.00. Well, we have the Buy Pivot target right there today and it may just get hit. Watch this for support today on a further washout.

If we move lower early FIRST then we can also watch this 1071.-72 area for support to come in. Preferable to wait until first hour is complete and compare this price area with the Hour One low looking for double confirmation.

Either type of trade I would be inclined to scalp today and not try and hold out for a trend type play as things could get choppy heading into the weekend.

Value Area: 1,077.20 - 1,092.90
Trade below the Value Area that come back into the VA is a mildly bullish move.

There is a huge range in the VA today so a run to the top would not be too likely. Resistance is in the center at 1085.00.

Overnight on Globex so far we've stretched up to 1081.50 at 4:00 est. So we may hit 1085.00 which would most likely sell off some more looking for a double bottom confirmation.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,071.25 - 1,072.25
As mentioned above watch this area for good support today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,092.00 - 1,091.00
Not much chance we will run up here but if we do...its a sell.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,093.60
After moving below the Pit Bull yesterday in the 1095.00 area prices crumbled. Lately the prices have been trading around the Pit Bull not decisively marking a direction.

Thursday was a specific pattern in the Day to Day sequencing which I am confident of recognizing next time and holding short. That Market Force was there to really washout the prices and trading below the Pit Bull just fed that move.

Now we want to look to Sell Rallies in general below this number.

Pro Trader's Action
The market squarred off at the "Line in the Sand" at 1095.00 from Wednesday and the Bears definitely took charge as the Sell Mode continued.

As mentioned above today's type of setup is often better left alone than trying to trade it. We may do just that today after watching the first hour and seeing how things stack up.

Sure, the market will always move some points in one direction but in trading for the long term you work within the guidelines of a systematic approach with proven setups.

So regardless of which way things move today we may just stand aside.

I'll be on the Live Updates checking out the action and will let you know if we are going to do anything. Depending on the open and first run criteria we may have something to trade according to what I described above.

Have a great weekend and all the best of success. Mohan

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