Fisco continua a tributar mais-valias se a herança se mantiver indivisa

[Dwer]

Market Force: Bullish/Caution. Today is a cautiously bullish day on a flat to lower opening and an early drop in prices. Watch for pressure on the lows after the first hour to find support and move higher into the close.

Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, August 4, 2004:
1)S@1096.50/B@1093.75 +2.75

2)B@1093.75/S@1097.25 +3.50

TOTAL: +6.25

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Our Headline Call on Wednesday once again read the market like a book.

We were looking for a lower opening and lower prices mid session to find support and bounce holding up into the close.

We lost some points off the highs but did hang on to gains off the lows holding above the opening price.

We had some decent double sided trading results and here are my Wrap Up comments that describe the action on Wednesday.

"We had our parameters laid out today to be on the short side looking for lower prices if they tried to rally early.

The big question for today was whether we were going to move into a seasonal bullish bias, roll back into the Sell Mode with trade below 1091, or hang in Limbo with a Line drawn in the sand around 1094 area Pit Bull.

We got short on the early attempt to rally at the Hour One high at 1096.50 and the market began to pullback. We had tagged 1090-91 as our target short covering area. Some time into the trade elongated, hard spike candles started coming in punching the prices down to the Hour One low at 1091.75 and they stopped there like they hit a brick wall and started to bounce.

I had pre-warned our subscribers that we were going to be buying and reversing down where we covered the short. After prices jumped up off the Hour One low I decided to cover and go long. Our fill was estimated around 1093.75.

In case there was any confusion about being long I had put out another post to get long below that level and some of you got long as low as 1092.00 area. Either way we took profits of about 2.75+ on the short. The new long position was testing the 1092.50 area which we had pegged as strong support. They tapped 2.25 and started to move up again. Lucky we held as prices later shot up substantially after going flat for a while.

I had marked the 1098.00 area as a spot where we wanted to take profits as it was a wild card as to where the market would go once breaking out above 1096.00. We took profits as prices hit 1098.00 and showed our official fill at 1097.25 for a +3.50 profit on the trade.

So on balance +6.25 for the day."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is going to be another day where we want to watch to see if the market is going to continue the Sell Mode below 1092-3.00, hold in limbo at the "Line in the Sand" price around 1094-95.00, or move above that and get back in the 1100.00 handles.

Our Headline Call, which is based on my readings and interpretations of 18 proprietary indicators that I developed, says we will most likely try and push lower in the early session but find support and move off of that support.

This is based on the market opening flat to lower and running lower FIRST.

If open higher and run up first then we should continue to see the prices fading off of the highs put in and keep pressing lower.

There is a good chance today we could see some very heavy pressure on the lows moving into the 1089.00 area and lower looking to test the 1085.00 area again. If this does occur, we would probably have the appearance of a very bearish High 5. Our bet is that this setup will catch support and move higher off those lows continuing to try and get back into the 1100.00 handle area and above.

Oveall we want to look to either buy the Hour One low area only a bit lower OR if we are Mega Bearish Sell the Hour One low and hold short for more of a washout.

I will also be recommending to Buy the BreakOut of the Hour One high IF the High 5 are strongly bullish. This is the least expected setup to occur.

Value Area: 1,092.00 - 1,097.40
Trade holding above 1097.40 is bullish. Pushing below 1092.00 is bearish but we would expect support to come in and bring prices back above this area. Such a move would be mildly bullish.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,091.50 - 1,092.50
Watch this area but mostly the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1087.25 for stronger support.

If we are setting up to move substantially higher in a turn around, new seasonal bullish environment then we will see the prices leap into the 1100.00 handle and higher ....and hold up there.

It will be hard to notice but one just has to get long and hold.

I am not sure if the market is really ready to stage what I call a "Leveling Up" type bullish move but it could surprise many.

A strong bullish move would be the "most surprising" move between dropping and rallying right now.

Pro Trader's Action
A lot of the underlying bullishness is coming from a feeling that we are going to have a more positive overall future in this country (USA) soon with a new administration.

In spite of the Terror warnings (whether genuine or contrived) the market is shrugging them off. Most are getting a sense that a lot of this has been artificial and I have also implied this since long ago. Now much of this is coming to light ...like it or not. We have to face this and understand that the end result could be a very bullish market environment.

Regardless of what occurs we stand prepared to trade these markets with you in the midst of disaster (I started my newsletter just after the 911 tragedy) or renewed positive future expectations.

We can trade any side of the market that our indicators suggest we should be on. With the extensive research I've been doing I am very confident of the new system TCF2004 that I have been developing as the year 2004 unfolds and the nuances/differences between this year and last are correlated.

We will be a little extra patient and cautious today to be sure we can nail a trade on the right side of the markets setup.

Good Luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan