Mohan 02/08/04
Enviado: 2/8/2004 12:33Market Force: Bearish. Watch for the downside to unfold from either a higher earlier rise in prices or the breakdown of the Hour One lows. If High 5 are bullish at the time of the Hour One high (first pivot hit) then prices expected to hang up and drop later in session.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, July 30, 2004:
B@1100.00/S@1098.50 -1.50
Recap of Friday's Action:
Our Headline Call for Friday was for Bearish action but with the possibility of a bullish BreakOut beginning if the downside could not hold. The day's action exemplified that perfectly as prices fell off of early highs and pushed below B/O all day but kept finding support at the 1096.50 BreakDown (tapped 3 times). Finally a surprise rally 10 minutes into the close only to be squashed back down immediately to 1097.00 in the aftermarket Globex. What a rig.
Here are my Closing Wrap Up comments for the Live Update Service.
"We wanted to take a very small risk today at getting long on the Hour One high.
The High 5 were a very mixed bag with TRIN sky high above 1.40 but Nasdaq up +25 and more.
With the last day of trading for the month usually being bullish this was another added bullish factor.
We got long at 1100.00 a few ticks below the B/O at 1100.75 and used a 1098.00 stop. Prices rallied to make the days high of 1103.50 but then pulled back and sat on our entry price all day and slightly lower making today a bit of a grind.
I had posted that below 1099.00 we would just get out of the trade. We patiently held and many hours later we finally cut the trde as they traded below 1099.00 at 1098.50 for a -1.50 loss.
Market pulled back into the 96's later in the session while not crossing significantly over 1101.00 again so it was a good call to just get out.
Later in the last 10 minutes of trading they ran the prices up to the highs again near 1103-4.00 on a sucker run."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today's Market Force indicators are bearish and we are expecting the market to react strongly to the downside after a possible early rally attempt.
We would look to short the Hour One BreakOut if that occurs first HOWEVER there is the possibility of ONE MORE WEAK DAY UP...IF THE HIGH 5 ARE BULLISH AT THE TIME OF THE BREAKOUT (if indeed that is the first Hour One pivot hit).
Watch for the Hour One low to get hit and be mega bearish for the market today. If that is the first Hour One pivot hit we are going to be watching for a strong move lower. This would be highly bearish occuring on a Monday.
Primarily we are still in a Sell Mode. That has not fully resolved itself and although we have had a few days up with about a 12 point S&P500 gain from prior support around 1088-90 it appears we are getting ready to resume the downside move.
Today should give us some strong clues about this. We want to continue to be on the alert for a continued aberration on the Sell Mode if that is what the Market Force indicators show us as the exact trend direction right now is not entirely clear. We are stalled in the midst of a weak aberration up move.
Value Area: 1,096.80 - 1,101.80
Holding above 1102 creates the possibility-with a bullish High 5- of a move to the 1109.00 area. If we cross above that then 1112-14 should cap off a rally before we start to head lower. The goal up is 1121.00 if things get powerfully bullish and move above 1114.00 but this is not expected.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,096.75 - 1,097.75
Watch for this area to be initial support and then FAIL TO HOLD SUPPORT after the market shows us a Mega Bearish reading.
Be prepared for this as right now this has the highest probability of occuring.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,104.75 - 1,103.75
This area has been failing to rally above the last few sessions. The only way it will pop through this and continue higher is if we get a really strong High 5.
We started having the ingredients for this on Friday and that is why I wanted to take a long position with limited exposure.
The problem Friday was the TRIN was 1.50 and even higher and would not back off from these extremely bearish readings. The end result was the market kept pressing lower, finding support and then a fake out rally into 10 minutes before closing to clean out the stops only to be brought back down immediately in the aftermarkets.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,095.30
As we are holding above this we want to give the Upside some credential but we are at the Crossover point to the downside.
If prices move below this it will be a failure bullish Crossover and a bearish move lower is expected to ensue.
Pro Trader's Action
We want to focus on the Sell Side today as it appears we are going to get smacked hard to the downside.
If this call is totally wrong then that will be obvious by the clear presence of a Bullish or Mega Bullish High 5.
In that case we can look for one more up day on Monday and Tuesday should turn em around to the downside. We could even look for an upside BreakOut to buy if really bullish in appearance.
Otherwise I would prefer to stay on the sell side today looking for the pullback.
Use Trailblazer to gauge your entry short from either the BreakOut (with a clear 3rd Level up) and watch for Up patterns to be very weak on a BreakDown Sell with a very weak High 5.
Look forward to seeing you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, July 30, 2004:
B@1100.00/S@1098.50 -1.50
Recap of Friday's Action:
Our Headline Call for Friday was for Bearish action but with the possibility of a bullish BreakOut beginning if the downside could not hold. The day's action exemplified that perfectly as prices fell off of early highs and pushed below B/O all day but kept finding support at the 1096.50 BreakDown (tapped 3 times). Finally a surprise rally 10 minutes into the close only to be squashed back down immediately to 1097.00 in the aftermarket Globex. What a rig.
Here are my Closing Wrap Up comments for the Live Update Service.
"We wanted to take a very small risk today at getting long on the Hour One high.
The High 5 were a very mixed bag with TRIN sky high above 1.40 but Nasdaq up +25 and more.
With the last day of trading for the month usually being bullish this was another added bullish factor.
We got long at 1100.00 a few ticks below the B/O at 1100.75 and used a 1098.00 stop. Prices rallied to make the days high of 1103.50 but then pulled back and sat on our entry price all day and slightly lower making today a bit of a grind.
I had posted that below 1099.00 we would just get out of the trade. We patiently held and many hours later we finally cut the trde as they traded below 1099.00 at 1098.50 for a -1.50 loss.
Market pulled back into the 96's later in the session while not crossing significantly over 1101.00 again so it was a good call to just get out.
Later in the last 10 minutes of trading they ran the prices up to the highs again near 1103-4.00 on a sucker run."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today's Market Force indicators are bearish and we are expecting the market to react strongly to the downside after a possible early rally attempt.
We would look to short the Hour One BreakOut if that occurs first HOWEVER there is the possibility of ONE MORE WEAK DAY UP...IF THE HIGH 5 ARE BULLISH AT THE TIME OF THE BREAKOUT (if indeed that is the first Hour One pivot hit).
Watch for the Hour One low to get hit and be mega bearish for the market today. If that is the first Hour One pivot hit we are going to be watching for a strong move lower. This would be highly bearish occuring on a Monday.
Primarily we are still in a Sell Mode. That has not fully resolved itself and although we have had a few days up with about a 12 point S&P500 gain from prior support around 1088-90 it appears we are getting ready to resume the downside move.
Today should give us some strong clues about this. We want to continue to be on the alert for a continued aberration on the Sell Mode if that is what the Market Force indicators show us as the exact trend direction right now is not entirely clear. We are stalled in the midst of a weak aberration up move.
Value Area: 1,096.80 - 1,101.80
Holding above 1102 creates the possibility-with a bullish High 5- of a move to the 1109.00 area. If we cross above that then 1112-14 should cap off a rally before we start to head lower. The goal up is 1121.00 if things get powerfully bullish and move above 1114.00 but this is not expected.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,096.75 - 1,097.75
Watch for this area to be initial support and then FAIL TO HOLD SUPPORT after the market shows us a Mega Bearish reading.
Be prepared for this as right now this has the highest probability of occuring.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,104.75 - 1,103.75
This area has been failing to rally above the last few sessions. The only way it will pop through this and continue higher is if we get a really strong High 5.
We started having the ingredients for this on Friday and that is why I wanted to take a long position with limited exposure.
The problem Friday was the TRIN was 1.50 and even higher and would not back off from these extremely bearish readings. The end result was the market kept pressing lower, finding support and then a fake out rally into 10 minutes before closing to clean out the stops only to be brought back down immediately in the aftermarkets.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,095.30
As we are holding above this we want to give the Upside some credential but we are at the Crossover point to the downside.
If prices move below this it will be a failure bullish Crossover and a bearish move lower is expected to ensue.
Pro Trader's Action
We want to focus on the Sell Side today as it appears we are going to get smacked hard to the downside.
If this call is totally wrong then that will be obvious by the clear presence of a Bullish or Mega Bullish High 5.
In that case we can look for one more up day on Monday and Tuesday should turn em around to the downside. We could even look for an upside BreakOut to buy if really bullish in appearance.
Otherwise I would prefer to stay on the sell side today looking for the pullback.
Use Trailblazer to gauge your entry short from either the BreakOut (with a clear 3rd Level up) and watch for Up patterns to be very weak on a BreakDown Sell with a very weak High 5.
Look forward to seeing you in the action. Mohan