Mohan 28/07/04
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- Mensagens: 3255
- Registado: 6/11/2002 19:27
Mohan 28/07/04
Market Force: Bullish/Neutral. Look to sell rallies today as market consolidates and pulls back.
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, July 27, 2004:
1)B@1085.75/S@1085.25 -.50
2)B@1086.00/S@1089.25 +3.25
3)S@1089.25/B@1092.25 -3.00
4)S@1094.00/B@1094.75 -.75
TOTAL: -1.00
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's Action.
The markets lit up on the bullish side in the later part of the session inspite of a very bearish TRIN reading all day.
I've outlined our Headline Call we gave on Tuesday on the chart above and you can see that it panned out exactly as we had called for.
The positive Bullish Force of Tuesday will be an important Marking Point to see if we have opened up a new upside move towards 1121.00 OR it was just a "one day wonder" in an immediately continuing Sell Mode. Today will provide good clues to that as well as Thursday's action.
Here are my closing comments on our Live Update Service for Tuesday.
"The Bullish Market Force I was looking for yesterday showed up in force today into the last 1.5 hours of trading.
In the early session things appeared mildly bullish but the TRIN was still ominous showing a reading of over 1.40 at the time of the Hour One low.
We originally bought 1085.75 looking for the B/D to be missed and the Hour One high to be hit first. Using our new approach to stops and entries developed from Trailblazer when the market ran up but then pulled back against the position I was able to cut the loss at -.50.
Later after running lower, tapping 1084.00 and then shooting up to 1086.00 again we re-entered long at 1086.00.
The market took off but with the TRIN still very negative and Nasdaq backing off we shorted the BreakOut area at 1089.25 taking profits on the long of +3.25 and going short.
I tried to hold out a bit longer for the selling to show up and had pegged 1093.00 as a stop point. Wanting to beat that we got out at 1092.25 for a -3.00 loss.
On a decent run up to just below big resistance 1095.00 we shorted again and got filled at 1094.00. Prices tried to pullback but I could see we were heading a bit higher so we just cut the trade at 1094.75 for a .75 loss.
Prices did push a bit higher to 1096.00 but then fell back into the close just below 1093. So in hindsite we got our Bullish Market Force a day late but with the odd design of the High 5 it was not truly clear until an hour before the close."
Today's Call & Briefing:
As mentioned above, today will be an important day in terms of being a Marking Point in terms of seeing if we have opened up a temporary rally period within the Sell Mode or if we are just going to head back lower.
Our Headline Call for today is going to be looking for higher prices with some more Bullish Market Force but we are expecting that to be short lived and see consolidation set in after a higher move.
After the consolidation will be the tricky part. Although we are expecting a pullback to occur afterwards the key will be to see if any pullback or sharp selling attacks are met with buying support or not.
There is a chance that Tuesday may have opened up a new temporary up phase in the markets during this seasonally strong period.
The Democratic convention is shedding some positive light on the news and finally after some time the terror drill has subsided and replaced with much talk about hope for a more positive USA. This has affected the markets and just may open up a new bullish phase.
I am a bit suspect of this but the idea is we have to be open to that possibility in our trading (we don't really care which way the market goes although bullish/positive is certainly nice for a change). If we see the Selling getting strong support coming in similar to how we saw the market reacting Mid Session Tuesday these are the type of symptoms to look for.
FOR TODAY: We want to look to Sell a BreakOut attempt off the Hour One highs today after some rally above that. We will look to hold short and wait to see the symptoms of how the market consolidates if indeed that is what occurs.
If we hit the Hour One low first (not expected but certainly possible) then we will be on guard for prices to consolidate there and possibly sell off a bit from there. This will of course depend on how bearish the High 5 readings are.
Most likely we will get a rally attempt early first.
Value Area: 1,085.00 - 1,092.80
Trade holding above the Value Area at 1093.00 is bullish but any rallies that pullback to this zone and move lower is a negative sign.
We may find after an early rally today that prices will consolidate right in this zone.
If so we will be on guard to see if a base is forming for a launch on the 1100 handle and ultimately the 1121 area after several bullish sessions.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,086.00 - 1,087.00
Trade down here early should be good support for higher prices today.
The key is to see the early opening and first 30 mintues or so of trading move down here. Most likely we would get a bounce higher and further rally if this occurs. Not exepected however.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,097.50 - 1,096.50
This is the area we really want to watch on an early rally today. Notice how this price area also correlates with the Pit Bull at 1097.30.
+4.25 stop/pivot is at 1101.75 and we would look for that price to hold back the buying UNLESS we see a strong BreakOut buy with a really mega bullish High 5. We could blow through the Pit Bull and move up towards 1102 if that was the setup.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,097.30
As described above watch for the reaction to this number. Most likely we will be hitting resistance here and falling back.
The key will be to see how the consolidation around this area responds. If we hold this zone in a consolidation and press against the highs then we could be setting up to get back solidly in the 1100.00 handle again.
Pro Trader's Action
The key to the trade today will be to see how prices are reacting to an attempt to rally, how they consolidate, and if after consolidating they press against the highs or sell off.
We want to be very observant and open to Tuesday possibly (but not necessarily) having started a new temporary bullish phase within the Sell Mode.
If an early rally gets hit with selling that does not recover then we are going to continue the Sell Mode and move back below 1080.00 again.
There is a good chance we have hit support for a decent move higher so we now want to be on top of that observation to determine if we blow up to the upside. Our Market Force indicators will guide us along the way.
Have an excellent trading day today and I'll see you in the action. All the best, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, July 27, 2004:
1)B@1085.75/S@1085.25 -.50
2)B@1086.00/S@1089.25 +3.25
3)S@1089.25/B@1092.25 -3.00
4)S@1094.00/B@1094.75 -.75
TOTAL: -1.00
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's Action.
The markets lit up on the bullish side in the later part of the session inspite of a very bearish TRIN reading all day.
I've outlined our Headline Call we gave on Tuesday on the chart above and you can see that it panned out exactly as we had called for.
The positive Bullish Force of Tuesday will be an important Marking Point to see if we have opened up a new upside move towards 1121.00 OR it was just a "one day wonder" in an immediately continuing Sell Mode. Today will provide good clues to that as well as Thursday's action.
Here are my closing comments on our Live Update Service for Tuesday.
"The Bullish Market Force I was looking for yesterday showed up in force today into the last 1.5 hours of trading.
In the early session things appeared mildly bullish but the TRIN was still ominous showing a reading of over 1.40 at the time of the Hour One low.
We originally bought 1085.75 looking for the B/D to be missed and the Hour One high to be hit first. Using our new approach to stops and entries developed from Trailblazer when the market ran up but then pulled back against the position I was able to cut the loss at -.50.
Later after running lower, tapping 1084.00 and then shooting up to 1086.00 again we re-entered long at 1086.00.
The market took off but with the TRIN still very negative and Nasdaq backing off we shorted the BreakOut area at 1089.25 taking profits on the long of +3.25 and going short.
I tried to hold out a bit longer for the selling to show up and had pegged 1093.00 as a stop point. Wanting to beat that we got out at 1092.25 for a -3.00 loss.
On a decent run up to just below big resistance 1095.00 we shorted again and got filled at 1094.00. Prices tried to pullback but I could see we were heading a bit higher so we just cut the trade at 1094.75 for a .75 loss.
Prices did push a bit higher to 1096.00 but then fell back into the close just below 1093. So in hindsite we got our Bullish Market Force a day late but with the odd design of the High 5 it was not truly clear until an hour before the close."
Today's Call & Briefing:
As mentioned above, today will be an important day in terms of being a Marking Point in terms of seeing if we have opened up a temporary rally period within the Sell Mode or if we are just going to head back lower.
Our Headline Call for today is going to be looking for higher prices with some more Bullish Market Force but we are expecting that to be short lived and see consolidation set in after a higher move.
After the consolidation will be the tricky part. Although we are expecting a pullback to occur afterwards the key will be to see if any pullback or sharp selling attacks are met with buying support or not.
There is a chance that Tuesday may have opened up a new temporary up phase in the markets during this seasonally strong period.
The Democratic convention is shedding some positive light on the news and finally after some time the terror drill has subsided and replaced with much talk about hope for a more positive USA. This has affected the markets and just may open up a new bullish phase.
I am a bit suspect of this but the idea is we have to be open to that possibility in our trading (we don't really care which way the market goes although bullish/positive is certainly nice for a change). If we see the Selling getting strong support coming in similar to how we saw the market reacting Mid Session Tuesday these are the type of symptoms to look for.
FOR TODAY: We want to look to Sell a BreakOut attempt off the Hour One highs today after some rally above that. We will look to hold short and wait to see the symptoms of how the market consolidates if indeed that is what occurs.
If we hit the Hour One low first (not expected but certainly possible) then we will be on guard for prices to consolidate there and possibly sell off a bit from there. This will of course depend on how bearish the High 5 readings are.
Most likely we will get a rally attempt early first.
Value Area: 1,085.00 - 1,092.80
Trade holding above the Value Area at 1093.00 is bullish but any rallies that pullback to this zone and move lower is a negative sign.
We may find after an early rally today that prices will consolidate right in this zone.
If so we will be on guard to see if a base is forming for a launch on the 1100 handle and ultimately the 1121 area after several bullish sessions.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,086.00 - 1,087.00
Trade down here early should be good support for higher prices today.
The key is to see the early opening and first 30 mintues or so of trading move down here. Most likely we would get a bounce higher and further rally if this occurs. Not exepected however.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,097.50 - 1,096.50
This is the area we really want to watch on an early rally today. Notice how this price area also correlates with the Pit Bull at 1097.30.
+4.25 stop/pivot is at 1101.75 and we would look for that price to hold back the buying UNLESS we see a strong BreakOut buy with a really mega bullish High 5. We could blow through the Pit Bull and move up towards 1102 if that was the setup.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,097.30
As described above watch for the reaction to this number. Most likely we will be hitting resistance here and falling back.
The key will be to see how the consolidation around this area responds. If we hold this zone in a consolidation and press against the highs then we could be setting up to get back solidly in the 1100.00 handle again.
Pro Trader's Action
The key to the trade today will be to see how prices are reacting to an attempt to rally, how they consolidate, and if after consolidating they press against the highs or sell off.
We want to be very observant and open to Tuesday possibly (but not necessarily) having started a new temporary bullish phase within the Sell Mode.
If an early rally gets hit with selling that does not recover then we are going to continue the Sell Mode and move back below 1080.00 again.
There is a good chance we have hit support for a decent move higher so we now want to be on top of that observation to determine if we blow up to the upside. Our Market Force indicators will guide us along the way.
Have an excellent trading day today and I'll see you in the action. All the best, Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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