Fisco continua a tributar mais-valias se a herança se mantiver indivisa

[Dwer]

Market Force: Neutral. The Market is in limbo right now. Look for rallies to keep getting hit with selling. However, unless the High 5 are mega Bearish again today, we expect reflex rallies off the lows to occur.

Trade Setup Summary for Monday, July 26, 2004:
1)B@1085.50/S@1081.00 -4.50

2)B@1080.25/S@1079.50 -.75

3)B@1080.25/S@1078.50 -1.75

4) B@1079.00/S@1084.00 +5.00 (un official final trade recommendation after loss limit reached).

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's trading action.

Monday was a rather odd trading day as we had a very bearish High Five just after the first hour had finished yet we kept attempting to bounce off of support levels. Prices kept selling off the weak rallies and gradually moving lower and then reflex bouncing off those lows.

In this way both sides of the market were challenging. Here are my closing comments from our Live Update Service.

"Very difficult market to trade today as fast, spike moves occur on both sides of the trade with the Hour One low setting the stage.

We got long on a pullback off of the earlier highs at 1085.50 looking for the opening price of 1087.00 to form a base for higher prices according to our Market Force indicators. That was not in the cards today as prices attempted to rally but then fell below the Hour One low of 1083.50 and pressed lower.

We sold the long on a recommendation at 1081.00 even and took a larger than normal loss of -4.50.

The second attempt at getting long occured slightly lower as prices pulled back some with a mega Bearish High 5. We were looking for the turn around to the upside and saw prices surge towards 1084 on elongated spike candles only to fall back later causing us to get out near breakeven at 1079.50.

I wanted to put in one final attempt to get long expecting prices to improve into the close so we got long again at 1080.25 and once again saw a strong, confirming move to the 1184.00 area but only to see prices come reversing back with the failure of the High 5 to improve. In line with our daily loss limits we like to strictly adhere to we had to let the trade go when prices would not bounce off the return to 1079.00 so were were out at 1078.50 for a -1.75 loss.

Coming into the close prices got strong again as predicted and we had given an unofficial recommendation to get long below 1079 for those who wanted to press the long side with me. Prices dropped to 1077.00 initiating the long trade for those who wanted to get long. Traders could have closed that trade out on several stabs above 1084.00 for a +5-6 pt. gain.

Today simply was a very difficult trading day for both sides of the market."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today I want to be cautious and avoid another whip saw type day like Monday.

Most likely we will be waiting until 11:00est to see how the first 30 minutes trades after the first hour has completed. I often find that on days such as today where the Market Force indicators are looking for a particular bias but we are getting conflicting signals in the High 5 waiting that extra half hour lends some additional clarity to the readings.

It appears that part of the limbo in the markets is due to the Democratic Convention going on. At first I was reluctant to think this was affecting things but it apparently is. With John Kerry speaking Thursday we could see 2 more days of just range trading so we need to be cautious and scalp what is offered without focusing too much on holding for a trend.

The Market Force indicators right now are still primarily calling for a rally to begin. Not a total turn around in the Sell Mode that we are in but a temporary reversal off of the main Sell Mode trend I identified when we were trading at the 1133.00 area. We are still in that Sell Mode and lower prices are eventually expected to fufill the completion of that Sell Mode.

So with both sides ready to assert themselves, the Democratic convention going on with many people seriously studying the issues and the state of the U.S., and the indicators at a Crossroads... we are experiencing some limbo.

What to watch for: Look for a flat to lower opening and early drop to be bullish for rallies off the early drops today. Not necessarily a rally day (although a Turn Around Tuesday is common after a down Monday) but higher moves off the lows.

If we try and rally but the High 5 are still neutral with TRIN holding above 1.10 or higher and Nasdaq not really getting above a +15 reading then we need to be careful on the rallies. If we do hit the Hour One high FIRST today then we could move at least +6 points off the high with the way the Market Force is setup. Watch for that possibility with also the chance of such a rally fizzling out later in the session.

Value Area: 1,079.00 - 1,084.80
Trade holding above 1085.00 continues to be bullish for a move up to 1091.00. Today 1091.00 will put us in close proximity to the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average.

This will only occur if we get a powerful back up with the High 5 showing bullish readings.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,076.75 - 1,077.75
Watch for a move down to this pivot today to be a buy with the Hour One low coming in to be challenged. Be sure the High 5 is not mega Bearish like on Monday. If just a bit more neutral we could get a strong rally off such an early attempt at a low again.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,089.00 - 1,088.00
Watch this price on a BreakOut of the Hour One high and especially the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1093.25.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,099.50
If we rally today up to resistance at the 1091-93 area we are going to be closing in on the Pit Bull. With the seasonal bullish period we are in we could possibly crossover very soon and move higher.

It can be argued that if this is supposed to be the bullish season and we are moving lower with weak trading action then this is telling for the market.

Very true, but I recall similar summer rallies where the expected summer rally did not pan out UNTIL EVERYONE GAVE UP ON ONE OCCURING. Then slowly the market snuck up and all of sudden everyone looks back and say's..."Wow, we just had a rally". LOL.

Pro Trader's Action
The markets right now appear to be reacting to the "line in the sand" of the political election period we are in.

I want to stay focued on scalping trades on the right side and not get too concerned about holding out for an intraday trend trade.

Let's see if we can clearly identify one of the above scenarios mentioned above and trade accordingly.

All the best of success today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan