Mohan 19/07/04
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Mohan 19/07/04
Market Force: Bullish. Look for prices to rise on a flat to lower opening. Early, fast rally will find resistance in the 1112-14 area without strong Mega Bullish High 5.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, July 16, 2004:
No trades on Friday due to Option Expiration as is our regular proceedure.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Monday's Action.
On Friday's Option expiration we did not offer a Headline Call or trading recommendations as is our regular practice here on the Morning Call.
We saw the 1107.00 Hour One low get hit and prices just bounced around in a 2 point range near 1105-1107 for sometime. Usually this is a bearish sign if they don't decisively bounce off the early Hour One low.
Sure enough, they eventually pushed lower into the later session but held the EXACT 1100.00 HANDLE with some apparent psychological conviction for that number.
They bounced off of that slightly and now the debate opens here for Monday on whether we are going to hold this support or head lower again.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On a flat to lower opening today, especially with a slightly earlier move lower that jumps righ back above the 1103-4 area, I am expecting the Bullish Market Force to move prices higher.
The key to a bottom being formed on Friday will be to see prices hold above 1104 (in the Value Area) and move back towards 1112 (the top of the Value area).
If we see this bullish confirming action then there is a good chance of a bottom being formed once our first goal lower discussed for a few weeks of 1102 was hit. It appears now that we will not be looking for a 2nd goal lower UNLESS we see the prices HOLDING BELOW 1103.00.
For today's action:
Watch for a test return to the Hour One lows after the first hour to be bullish for higher prices today.
If prices shoot up right off of a flat to higher opening then we have to be a bit cautious as they may run em down a bit lower testing out that bottom at the 1100.00 handle and digging in to the 1000 handles a bit. Not expected.
One possibility too is that we could see the prices rise up as expected, peak out above 1112.00 and fall back into the center of the Value area near 1107 and then just stall a bit finding value.
Either of these scenarios should provide us with a good trading opportunity either buying the lower early test or shorting a rally that gets carried away EARLY for a pullback off the highs.
Value Area: 1,103.50 - 1,111.90
This zone will be a very important price range for us to watch as explained above. Most likely will contain most of the prices today unless the High 5 gets a Mega Bullish reading going. If Mega Bullish we could then stretch towards 1114.00.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,098.00 - 1,099.00
Very possible buy here today at an attemped run on the Hour One lows after the first hour is completed.
This would satisfy a slight dip into the 1000 handles and a return back into the 1100.00's just to scare everyone a bit.
Unless the High 5 and tape is really Ugly these lows should hold.
Correlate this number with the Hour One low to measure this zone, the Hour One low, and the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1093.75 for ultimate support today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,109.75 - 1,108.75
This is an area to watch but the top of the VA at 1112 and then 1114 is more likely a stronger resistance area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,112.80
Here is the Pit Bull now sitting right at this strong 1112.00 resistance area we have been discussing.
If our reading on the Bullish Market Force is correct and we get a screaming Bullish High 5 reading then we could blow through this area to the upside.
Most likely for today this will cap off a rally attempt and on Tuesday we could see how things stack up for a run up through this area.
Pro Trader's Action
We want to be buyers today on a flat to lower opening and a first hour push lower to test the 1100.00 handle or slightly lower.
If the High 5 is Mega Bearish then we may need to use the lower support number but I think we will hold today.
If they open a bit higher or gap higher then watch for the resistance at 1112-1114.00 come in. We can look to short up there as that was a key shorting area on Thursday when they pulled back strongly.
If they move up there rapidly and with strong conviction on a Mega Bullish High 5 then 1114.00 will get left in the dust as they climb higher. I don't think this is in the cards just yet but could be coming soon ...so we will be watching and ready.
Have an excellent trading day and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, July 16, 2004:
No trades on Friday due to Option Expiration as is our regular proceedure.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Monday's Action.
On Friday's Option expiration we did not offer a Headline Call or trading recommendations as is our regular practice here on the Morning Call.
We saw the 1107.00 Hour One low get hit and prices just bounced around in a 2 point range near 1105-1107 for sometime. Usually this is a bearish sign if they don't decisively bounce off the early Hour One low.
Sure enough, they eventually pushed lower into the later session but held the EXACT 1100.00 HANDLE with some apparent psychological conviction for that number.
They bounced off of that slightly and now the debate opens here for Monday on whether we are going to hold this support or head lower again.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On a flat to lower opening today, especially with a slightly earlier move lower that jumps righ back above the 1103-4 area, I am expecting the Bullish Market Force to move prices higher.
The key to a bottom being formed on Friday will be to see prices hold above 1104 (in the Value Area) and move back towards 1112 (the top of the Value area).
If we see this bullish confirming action then there is a good chance of a bottom being formed once our first goal lower discussed for a few weeks of 1102 was hit. It appears now that we will not be looking for a 2nd goal lower UNLESS we see the prices HOLDING BELOW 1103.00.
For today's action:
Watch for a test return to the Hour One lows after the first hour to be bullish for higher prices today.
If prices shoot up right off of a flat to higher opening then we have to be a bit cautious as they may run em down a bit lower testing out that bottom at the 1100.00 handle and digging in to the 1000 handles a bit. Not expected.
One possibility too is that we could see the prices rise up as expected, peak out above 1112.00 and fall back into the center of the Value area near 1107 and then just stall a bit finding value.
Either of these scenarios should provide us with a good trading opportunity either buying the lower early test or shorting a rally that gets carried away EARLY for a pullback off the highs.
Value Area: 1,103.50 - 1,111.90
This zone will be a very important price range for us to watch as explained above. Most likely will contain most of the prices today unless the High 5 gets a Mega Bullish reading going. If Mega Bullish we could then stretch towards 1114.00.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,098.00 - 1,099.00
Very possible buy here today at an attemped run on the Hour One lows after the first hour is completed.
This would satisfy a slight dip into the 1000 handles and a return back into the 1100.00's just to scare everyone a bit.
Unless the High 5 and tape is really Ugly these lows should hold.
Correlate this number with the Hour One low to measure this zone, the Hour One low, and the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1093.75 for ultimate support today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,109.75 - 1,108.75
This is an area to watch but the top of the VA at 1112 and then 1114 is more likely a stronger resistance area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,112.80
Here is the Pit Bull now sitting right at this strong 1112.00 resistance area we have been discussing.
If our reading on the Bullish Market Force is correct and we get a screaming Bullish High 5 reading then we could blow through this area to the upside.
Most likely for today this will cap off a rally attempt and on Tuesday we could see how things stack up for a run up through this area.
Pro Trader's Action
We want to be buyers today on a flat to lower opening and a first hour push lower to test the 1100.00 handle or slightly lower.
If the High 5 is Mega Bearish then we may need to use the lower support number but I think we will hold today.
If they open a bit higher or gap higher then watch for the resistance at 1112-1114.00 come in. We can look to short up there as that was a key shorting area on Thursday when they pulled back strongly.
If they move up there rapidly and with strong conviction on a Mega Bullish High 5 then 1114.00 will get left in the dust as they climb higher. I don't think this is in the cards just yet but could be coming soon ...so we will be watching and ready.
Have an excellent trading day and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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