Enviado: 8/6/2004 13:11Visitante,
Apesar da minha formação académica ser na área da gestão financeira, já à muito tempo interiorizei que para negociar no curto médio prazo é essencial a utilização da analise técnica. Eu acho que em qualquer área do conhecimento se quisermos evoluir temos que manter uma “mente aberta” (recordas-te, à alguns anos atrás o Sol girava em volta da Terra).
Deixo um artigo que fui buscar ao meu baú, pode ser que te aguce o apetite por esta área, que ás vezes é mal tratada provavelmente por ser mal entendida.
Odey recovers from being a casualty of War
By Philip Coggan
Published: April 28 2002 14:52GMT | Last Updated: April 28 2002 16:04GMT
For a self-proclaimed "miserable Scottish trouble-maker" Hugh Hendry seems remarkably cheerful. And so he should be in light of his record in charge of the CF Odey European trust, which has risen 49 per cent over the last three years, compared with a 3.4 per cent fall in the FTSE Europe (ex-UK) index.
Mr Hendry is the right-hand man of Crispin Odey, one of the first UK fund managers to move into hedge funds back in the early 1990s.
The early years of his group, Odey Asset Management, were turbulent. The company had bumper years in 1992 and 1993. By the end of the latter year, Odey had assets under management of $1bn (£690m). But in 1994 came disaster. A huge bet on UK War Loan, built on the belief that disinflation -a slowdown in the rate of inflation - would drive down interest rates, coincided with one of the worst years for the bond market. Odey's hedge fund lost 43 per cent and by the end of the year, assets under management were down to just $40m.
According to Mr Hendry, however, that disastrous year formed the roots for the group's subsequent success. The main hedge fund has not had a down year since 1994. "It caused us to change our business practices and meant we had to understand risk management," he says.
A key element in risk management has been technical analysis. "Charting has been my salvation. Technical analysis does not accentuate our returns but controls our risk, prevents us from being stuck in stocks like Vodafone and Nokia, which are in clear downtrends. We passionately believed in War Loan in 1994, but we weren't looking at the charts."
Fundamentals matter as well. "We focus on measures like enterprise value/ revenues and the sustainable operating margin of the industry. But we never invest on the long side unless the stock has positive relative performance."
Mr Hendry joined the group in March 1999, having previously worked at Baillie Gifford and Credit Suisse.
The CF Odey European trust that Mr Hendry manages is classed as a unit trust, but he says it is really a hedge fund in disguise. Although there is no leverage, and the fund cannot go short, it does a lot of trading, turning over the portfolio between two and four times a year. Trading generates a lot of dealing costs, but Mr Hendry claims that it does add value. "Our studies indicate our trading added 6 percentage points to performance, but cost 1.8 points," he says.
As an example, he cites the fund's decision to go heavily into telecommunications stocks in the wake of the September 11 attacks. It became clear that the world's central banks would flood the markets with liquidity, so telecoms stocks were an obvious beneficiary, he says.
Underlying this frenetic short-term activity is a belief in asignificant long-term change in the direction of equity markets.
"The game in the 1980s and 1990s was disinflation," Mr Hendry says. "Investors took advantage of duration, which meant buying highly-priced fast-growing companies. We saw the cult of the growth stock."
But all that has changed, he believes. "The policies of central banks will inevitably result in the end of disinflation and possibly the return of inflation. Duration will be a killer."
Freed of the gold standard, central banks have been able to print money and have repeatedly baled out investors. For example, in the 1990-93 US savings and loans crisis.
"Liquidity seeks inflating assets," says Mr Hendry. "For a long time, these were financial assets. But after four years of making no money in the equity market, liquidity is going into real assets such as property and commodities. Our portfolio is focused on assets, such as mining, property and housebuilders. Some 8 per cent of the portfolio is in gold mining shares."
Mr Hendry does not believe this process can be easily reversed. "Leverage has been added to the system and makes it increasingly vulnerable. The Fed recognises that and thus a degree of inflation has become a policy objective."
And he does not believe traditional equities will perform well. "When bear markets come to an end big shares tend to trade at 10 times earnings and 5 per cent yield," he said. "But markets are at 20 times earnings. Conventional managers have become risk-averse and are hugging the index. That will be suicidal. Most of the risk at the moment is market risk, prices will not stop falling until we hit 10 times earnings."
If he is right, then it will be not him, but the rest of the fund management industry that will be miserable.
fonte: www.ft.com
um abraço
Apesar da minha formação académica ser na área da gestão financeira, já à muito tempo interiorizei que para negociar no curto médio prazo é essencial a utilização da analise técnica. Eu acho que em qualquer área do conhecimento se quisermos evoluir temos que manter uma “mente aberta” (recordas-te, à alguns anos atrás o Sol girava em volta da Terra).
Deixo um artigo que fui buscar ao meu baú, pode ser que te aguce o apetite por esta área, que ás vezes é mal tratada provavelmente por ser mal entendida.
Odey recovers from being a casualty of War
By Philip Coggan
Published: April 28 2002 14:52GMT | Last Updated: April 28 2002 16:04GMT
For a self-proclaimed "miserable Scottish trouble-maker" Hugh Hendry seems remarkably cheerful. And so he should be in light of his record in charge of the CF Odey European trust, which has risen 49 per cent over the last three years, compared with a 3.4 per cent fall in the FTSE Europe (ex-UK) index.
Mr Hendry is the right-hand man of Crispin Odey, one of the first UK fund managers to move into hedge funds back in the early 1990s.
The early years of his group, Odey Asset Management, were turbulent. The company had bumper years in 1992 and 1993. By the end of the latter year, Odey had assets under management of $1bn (£690m). But in 1994 came disaster. A huge bet on UK War Loan, built on the belief that disinflation -a slowdown in the rate of inflation - would drive down interest rates, coincided with one of the worst years for the bond market. Odey's hedge fund lost 43 per cent and by the end of the year, assets under management were down to just $40m.
According to Mr Hendry, however, that disastrous year formed the roots for the group's subsequent success. The main hedge fund has not had a down year since 1994. "It caused us to change our business practices and meant we had to understand risk management," he says.
A key element in risk management has been technical analysis. "Charting has been my salvation. Technical analysis does not accentuate our returns but controls our risk, prevents us from being stuck in stocks like Vodafone and Nokia, which are in clear downtrends. We passionately believed in War Loan in 1994, but we weren't looking at the charts."
Fundamentals matter as well. "We focus on measures like enterprise value/ revenues and the sustainable operating margin of the industry. But we never invest on the long side unless the stock has positive relative performance."
Mr Hendry joined the group in March 1999, having previously worked at Baillie Gifford and Credit Suisse.
The CF Odey European trust that Mr Hendry manages is classed as a unit trust, but he says it is really a hedge fund in disguise. Although there is no leverage, and the fund cannot go short, it does a lot of trading, turning over the portfolio between two and four times a year. Trading generates a lot of dealing costs, but Mr Hendry claims that it does add value. "Our studies indicate our trading added 6 percentage points to performance, but cost 1.8 points," he says.
As an example, he cites the fund's decision to go heavily into telecommunications stocks in the wake of the September 11 attacks. It became clear that the world's central banks would flood the markets with liquidity, so telecoms stocks were an obvious beneficiary, he says.
Underlying this frenetic short-term activity is a belief in asignificant long-term change in the direction of equity markets.
"The game in the 1980s and 1990s was disinflation," Mr Hendry says. "Investors took advantage of duration, which meant buying highly-priced fast-growing companies. We saw the cult of the growth stock."
But all that has changed, he believes. "The policies of central banks will inevitably result in the end of disinflation and possibly the return of inflation. Duration will be a killer."
Freed of the gold standard, central banks have been able to print money and have repeatedly baled out investors. For example, in the 1990-93 US savings and loans crisis.
"Liquidity seeks inflating assets," says Mr Hendry. "For a long time, these were financial assets. But after four years of making no money in the equity market, liquidity is going into real assets such as property and commodities. Our portfolio is focused on assets, such as mining, property and housebuilders. Some 8 per cent of the portfolio is in gold mining shares."
Mr Hendry does not believe this process can be easily reversed. "Leverage has been added to the system and makes it increasingly vulnerable. The Fed recognises that and thus a degree of inflation has become a policy objective."
And he does not believe traditional equities will perform well. "When bear markets come to an end big shares tend to trade at 10 times earnings and 5 per cent yield," he said. "But markets are at 20 times earnings. Conventional managers have become risk-averse and are hugging the index. That will be suicidal. Most of the risk at the moment is market risk, prices will not stop falling until we hit 10 times earnings."
If he is right, then it will be not him, but the rest of the fund management industry that will be miserable.
fonte: www.ft.com
um abraço
