António Costa lidera preferências dos portugueses para as presidenciais

[Viana_]

e o window dressing. Tneho uns artigos excelentes sobre estes dois assuntos.

Ja muitas vezes assistimos uma empresa a bater os numeros de consenso no entanto a ser penalizada por estes serem superiores ao esperado. Como???? Porquê?¿!¡!¿¡? Näo ntende? É facil. Esses numeros apesar de acima do que o esperado pelos analistas (em termos "matematicos") näo conseguiram bater os Wisper Numbers. Há imensos casos que se podia tratar.



Earnings Expectations For December 18th - 19th

A Big Week Ahead For Earnings

Individual Investor Earnings Sentiment is mixed for the big names that report this week.

Whisper Data Wire - A big week is ahead for earnings prior to the holidays. Story stocks such as Oracle (ORCL), Bear Stearns (BSC), Fed Express (FDX), Nike (NKE), 3Com and several others lead the earnings parade. Big whisper movers last quarter that are also reporting this week include; Winnebago (WGO) and Apollo Group (APOL).

In addition to earnings, WhisperNumber.com has gotten wind of a rather surprising rumor that could shake the foundations of Wall Street. There are whispers that Bear Stearns, one of the leading and most respected brokerage firms may soon announce they will break rank with the other big brokerage houses and deep six their entire research and analyst divisions. It wouldn't be surprising if Bear Stearns did this, as they are not a leading brokerage firm in investment banking and underwriting. They derive a majority of their revenue from bond trading and prime brokerage services.

The Big Reports this week and the Earnings Sentiment that will influence the stocks (data as of 12/17):

Earnings Expectations for Wednesday, Dec 18th Click Ticker Symbol for Chart
Company Symbol Analysts
Expectation Individual Investors
Expectations Difference WhisperNumber
Sentiment Ranking
Bear Stearns color=#0000ff BSC $1.23 $1.25 +2 High
Apollo Group color=#0000ff APOL 0.22 0.22 -- Neutral
Winnebago color=#0000ff WGO 0.68 0.68 -- Neutral
Oracle color=#0000ff ORCL 0.08 0.09 +1 High
Earnings Expectations for Thursday, Dec 19th Click Ticker Symbol for Chart
Federal Express color=#0000ff FDX 0.78 0.80 +2 High
3COM color=#0000ff COMS -0.04 -0.03 +1 High
NIKE color=#0000ff NKE 0.57 0.56 -1 Low
Morgan Stanley color=#0000ff MWD 0.75 0.75 -- Neutral


Report Summaries:

Wednesday

Oracle
Earnings sentiment for Oracle (ORCL) is high. The expected number from investors surveyed by WhisperNumber.com is beatable but the stock isn't behaving like there is a strong number on the horizon. There is no question that a pent up demand for technology and software products is beginning to take place. The big question is will the companies who sell the goods, like Oracle, wait patiently for that pent up demand to hit pay dirt or will they discount their pricing heavily to lure out customers that need software upgrades? Our guess is that they discount prices. This may not impact earnings for Oracle this quarter but it could weaken their numbers down the road. Oracle reports Wednesday and the whisper is 9 cents, one penny ahead of analyst's estimates.

Bear Stearns

Bear Stearns (BSC) is trading just above book value. This brokerage house stock has not suffered like many of its competitors, ie, Merrill Lynch, etc. Oddly enough, insiders have been dumping stock off the October and November rally at a heavy clip. Despite this, some unheard of large value investors continue to quietly buy shares. Earnings sentiment is high for the Q4 report. Expectations at WN are high but falling. They currently stand at $1.25 per share vs. analysts $1.23 per share.

Apollo Group

We wrote about Apollo Group (APOL) last quarter and at the time thought it was an attractive earnings play based on your sentiment. It turned out that it was as the stock rallied about 15% after the report. The stock has since given back those gains and then some. Earnings sentiment for Apollo at that time if you recall was high. Sentiment is now in neutral territory for the upcoming Q1 2003 report due out 12/18. The company, which provides education over the Internet most notably through the University of Phoenix Online, shouldn't see a slow down in growth. Their numbers given the economic environment should be stronger. With more people out of work the demand for their services should rise. If the company doesn't see the same rate of growth (about 20%) that we saw last quarter, we would be suspicious of the numbers and would expect the stock to fall. If the rate of growth is equal or better than 20% then another rally could start. The whisper is 22 cents which is equal to the analyst's sentiment.

Winnebago

This quarter earnings sentiment for Winnebago (WGO) is 'neutral' contrary to last quarter when sentiment was very high. Despite this, Winnebago lived up to the high expectations last quarter and the stock worked out very nicely. We think there may be more upside potential in the stock if the company can maintain its earnings momentum and continue to surprise to the upside. Winnebago reports its Q1 2003 earnings on 12/18. The whisper is 68 cents per share.

Thursday

Nike

A recent review of Berkshire Hathaway's latest 13 D filings indicates that Warren Buffet is buying the shares of Nike. The stock has been tumbling since March of this year. Expectations for Nike are high but are not overly optimistic. Individual investor expectations are 57 cents, one penny ahead of analysts. Nike reports Thursday.

Other news:

Individual Investors continue to out pace analysts in predicting the actual outcome of company earnings. Last week several notable reports indicated the accuracy of individual investors over analysts.

Last Weeks Accuracy Notables Click Ticker Symbol for Chart
Company Symbol Analysts
Expectation Individual Investors
Expectations Actual Reported EPS
Toll Brothers color=#0000ff TOL 0.89 0.93 0.93
HJ Heinz color=#0000ff HNZ 0.58 0.62 0.62
Autozone color=#0000ff AZO 0.95 1.03 1.04



We hope you have found this update useful and informative.

Sincerely,