Mohan 20/05/04
Enviado: 20/5/2004 13:49Market Force: Bullish on lower early drops. Lower open and early move lower is bullish for higher move off of the lows. Flat to slightly higher open can remain bullish IF they prices hold above 1089.00
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, May 19, 2004:
No trades today. Stood aside in position Neutral (gladly)
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Wednesday turned out to be the WILD CARD we had anticipated and discussed.
I had put out the Bullish Market Force Headline but still combined with Caution and we can see that both of these were correct to the extreme.
I posted an "Ask Mohan" section today on radical market moves to discuss why these are not that important to catch yet certainly fun IF you are on the right side of such a move. Problem is these moves are created mostly by traders who are on the wrong side getting their brains hammered out. The appearance of these moves in hindsite always seem ever so obvious.
Here are my Wrap Up comments for the day on the Live Update Service.
"I had decided early to stand aside today after the first 2.5 hours with the flat market going nowhere. We had a recommendation to Sell just above the Hour One High after the market tapped that high but they never went back up there. Just sat for a few hours.
I am sure glad I did stand aside as this is simply a neurotic, news driven market lately and especially today with this huge reversal.
Some traders get all agitated because they think they "missed" a big move or something but not me.
These type of days with the early gap up, a mega Bullish High 5 and then going flat for 3 hours are WILD CARDS.
Prefer days where we can pick a clear spot, calculate a tight stop, and determine a nice profit potential.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call which is based on our proprietary indicators is continuing to show that the market is bullish but with the condition today of a lower early run to fuel that upside.
Now if prices open flat to slightly higher they will probably remain bullish as long as we TRADE ABOVE 1089.00.
The market is trying to form a bottom in here and being very cruel about it. Bottoms usually form when absolutely NO ONE EXPECTS IT such as the one formed at the beginning of the Iraq War.
The difficulty for us as Intraday traders is that when you get this radical volatility you increase the risk in putting on the trades.
WHAT WE WOULD LOOK FOR TODAY: Ideally we will get a flat to lower opening and an early lower run. If that is the case then we can consider looking to Buy on a push below the Hour One low for what should be a decent run up to test the 1090 area again.
If they open up Gap Up and run HIGHER FIRST then we may run into some resistance and need to go and test the lower section again pushing against that 1076-1081 zone AGAIN. Prices have tested that area 3 TIMES THIS MONTH and perhaps the 4th time is a charm.
Value Area: 1,097.10 - 1,105.60
We are well below the Value Area today and that is a bearish sign. We want to look to sell any moves up here to the bottom of the VA on a HIGHER OPENING AND EARLY RUN UP.
Later in the day if we get a decent pullback off of that we can try for a buy trade that reverses upwards again.
Because we are in this bottoming process it is going to be a bit challenging and I will be doing my best to get us into trades that work out in our favor so we can build the accounts. That is the goal of the Live Update Service.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,080.00 - 1,081.00
Here is that area again for the 4th time this month at the Buy Pivot Target.
The -4.25 stop/pivot at 1073.75 cuts a new low for the month (1075.30 current low) and support should come in above this.
Watch this area for the Hour One low and clear Trailblazer chart formations that get us long down here.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,099.50 - 1,098.50
I think the markets may be somewhat quiet today after the eruptions of volatility yesterday.
Not sure if we can run em up here again but if so we would most likely want to short em. Compare this with the Hour One BreakOut High if we go rallying up here early. Not expected.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,093.40
Well, we blew throught the Pit Bull pretty nicely on Wednesday and then came crunching back through it. So we are not getting many clues from the Pit Bull today other than to see if we can move above it again and gain strength. The fact that we are toying with this number means we could Cross Over to the upside decisively soon.
Pro Trader's Action
Look, I love to trade the action, I love to get in nice trades that move 10 points in our favor and more but to do that intelligently and saftely you need the backup indicators and confirmation to do it. At least now after so many years of being on the right and wrong side of big moves that is how I trade em.
Call me old fashioned but I am more committed to trading on days that are CLEAR and providing information (Indicators, Trailblazer chart formations, etc.) that gives me as much comfort in a trade as possible. Now for the S&P500 there is rarely much "comfort" however we can trade setups with the proper backup information that can create as much comfort as possible.
We can look to buy drops today if we get a lower early move providing the High 5 are not in a terrible Bear Ugly state.
If they open higher it becomes more a bit of a Wild Card and most likely they will press em lower in such a situation. Watch for trade that holds above 1089.00 however with a developing bullish High 5.
Let's be a bit more careful today and see if we can get favorable trade on for continued higher prices.
All the best of luck and success. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, May 19, 2004:
No trades today. Stood aside in position Neutral (gladly)
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Wednesday turned out to be the WILD CARD we had anticipated and discussed.
I had put out the Bullish Market Force Headline but still combined with Caution and we can see that both of these were correct to the extreme.
I posted an "Ask Mohan" section today on radical market moves to discuss why these are not that important to catch yet certainly fun IF you are on the right side of such a move. Problem is these moves are created mostly by traders who are on the wrong side getting their brains hammered out. The appearance of these moves in hindsite always seem ever so obvious.
Here are my Wrap Up comments for the day on the Live Update Service.
"I had decided early to stand aside today after the first 2.5 hours with the flat market going nowhere. We had a recommendation to Sell just above the Hour One High after the market tapped that high but they never went back up there. Just sat for a few hours.
I am sure glad I did stand aside as this is simply a neurotic, news driven market lately and especially today with this huge reversal.
Some traders get all agitated because they think they "missed" a big move or something but not me.
These type of days with the early gap up, a mega Bullish High 5 and then going flat for 3 hours are WILD CARDS.
Prefer days where we can pick a clear spot, calculate a tight stop, and determine a nice profit potential.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call which is based on our proprietary indicators is continuing to show that the market is bullish but with the condition today of a lower early run to fuel that upside.
Now if prices open flat to slightly higher they will probably remain bullish as long as we TRADE ABOVE 1089.00.
The market is trying to form a bottom in here and being very cruel about it. Bottoms usually form when absolutely NO ONE EXPECTS IT such as the one formed at the beginning of the Iraq War.
The difficulty for us as Intraday traders is that when you get this radical volatility you increase the risk in putting on the trades.
WHAT WE WOULD LOOK FOR TODAY: Ideally we will get a flat to lower opening and an early lower run. If that is the case then we can consider looking to Buy on a push below the Hour One low for what should be a decent run up to test the 1090 area again.
If they open up Gap Up and run HIGHER FIRST then we may run into some resistance and need to go and test the lower section again pushing against that 1076-1081 zone AGAIN. Prices have tested that area 3 TIMES THIS MONTH and perhaps the 4th time is a charm.
Value Area: 1,097.10 - 1,105.60
We are well below the Value Area today and that is a bearish sign. We want to look to sell any moves up here to the bottom of the VA on a HIGHER OPENING AND EARLY RUN UP.
Later in the day if we get a decent pullback off of that we can try for a buy trade that reverses upwards again.
Because we are in this bottoming process it is going to be a bit challenging and I will be doing my best to get us into trades that work out in our favor so we can build the accounts. That is the goal of the Live Update Service.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,080.00 - 1,081.00
Here is that area again for the 4th time this month at the Buy Pivot Target.
The -4.25 stop/pivot at 1073.75 cuts a new low for the month (1075.30 current low) and support should come in above this.
Watch this area for the Hour One low and clear Trailblazer chart formations that get us long down here.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,099.50 - 1,098.50
I think the markets may be somewhat quiet today after the eruptions of volatility yesterday.
Not sure if we can run em up here again but if so we would most likely want to short em. Compare this with the Hour One BreakOut High if we go rallying up here early. Not expected.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,093.40
Well, we blew throught the Pit Bull pretty nicely on Wednesday and then came crunching back through it. So we are not getting many clues from the Pit Bull today other than to see if we can move above it again and gain strength. The fact that we are toying with this number means we could Cross Over to the upside decisively soon.
Pro Trader's Action
Look, I love to trade the action, I love to get in nice trades that move 10 points in our favor and more but to do that intelligently and saftely you need the backup indicators and confirmation to do it. At least now after so many years of being on the right and wrong side of big moves that is how I trade em.
Call me old fashioned but I am more committed to trading on days that are CLEAR and providing information (Indicators, Trailblazer chart formations, etc.) that gives me as much comfort in a trade as possible. Now for the S&P500 there is rarely much "comfort" however we can trade setups with the proper backup information that can create as much comfort as possible.
We can look to buy drops today if we get a lower early move providing the High 5 are not in a terrible Bear Ugly state.
If they open higher it becomes more a bit of a Wild Card and most likely they will press em lower in such a situation. Watch for trade that holds above 1089.00 however with a developing bullish High 5.
Let's be a bit more careful today and see if we can get favorable trade on for continued higher prices.
All the best of luck and success. Mohan