Nokia - Para meditar
Bons indicadores.... é com estes que se fáz a estimativa....
17 May 2004 10:20
UPDATE 1-Citizen Watch profit soars on radio watches, LEDs
(Updates with details, company comment, analyst comment, byline)
By Nathan Layne
TOKYO, May 17 (Reuters) - Japan's Citizen Watch Co <7762.T> said on Monday that its operating profit nearly doubled in the past business year on strong sales of radio-controlled watches and mobile phone parts, and gave a better-than-expected forecast for double-digit profit growth this year.
Citizen, a maker of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) used to illuminate cell phones, forecast group operating profit to rise 15.5 percent to a record 41 billion yen ($357.9 million) in the year to March 2005 on sales of 400 billion yen, up 6.5 percent.
The forecast was more bullish than the market consensus of a 37.5 billion yen operating profit on revenues of 383 billion yen, according to a poll of nine analysts by Reuters Research.
"My first impression is that this is a positive surprise...We were looking for no profit growth this year taking into consideration the risk of a strong yen," said J.P. Morgan analyst Hisashi Moriyama, who rates Citizen Watch's stock at "neutral".
"For the company to come out with a forecast like this at this stage in the game shows it is confident that all major segments -- watches, LEDs and industrial machinery -- will continue to perform well and contribute to earnings growth."
Through subsidiary Citizen Electronics <6892.Q>, Citizen Watch is a major supplier of LED chips and liquid crystal display backlight units to the world's largest mobile phone maker, Nokia <NOK1V.HE>, and to Japan's top producer NEC Corp <6701.T>.
Last week, Citizen Electronics projected that its operating profit would rise 25 percent in 2004/2005, citing expectations for continued growth in the cellphone market and a higher percentage of phones equipped with colour screens.
Citizen Watch owns 66 percent of Citizen Electronics, which reported a doubling of group operating profit in the past business year to 17.7 billion yen, accounting for about half percent of the parent's operating income in 2003/04.
"About 80 percent of our business is tied to the cell phone market. And to put it simply, that market was booming," said Minoru Okamoto, executive director of Citizen Electronics, at a gathering of analysts and reporters earlier in the day.
GOOD FIGHT
For the year ended March 31, Citizen Watch posted an 80.4 percent rise in operating profit to 35.51 billion yen as sales increased 12.5 percent to 375.72 billion yen.
Net profit more than tripled to 19.68 billion yen, boosted by a sharp drop in special losses, which had depressed its bottom line in 2002/03.
The company said revenues in its watch division slumped five percent in 2003/04, but operating profit jumped 21 percent thanks to brisk sales of high-margin radio-synchronised watches, which receive radio signals that ensure they remain accurate.
Casio Computer Co Ltd <6952.T> and Citizen Watch were the only two domestic players in this fast-growing segment of the watch market until Seiko Corp <8050.T> made it three by launching its own line-up of radio-controlled watches last month.
"Before it was just us and Casio, but Seiko's entry should help to stoke overall demand. I expect it to be a good fight," Citizen Watch director Osamu Yamada told a news conference.
Revenues in Citizen Watch's industrial machinery division rose 29 percent to 28 billion yen in the previous business year, fuelled by a recovery in demand from the electronics and auto sectors.
Operating profit in the division jumped 181 percent in 2003/04 and is seen up another 10 percent this year.
UPDATE 1-Citizen Watch profit soars on radio watches, LEDs
(Updates with details, company comment, analyst comment, byline)
By Nathan Layne
TOKYO, May 17 (Reuters) - Japan's Citizen Watch Co <7762.T> said on Monday that its operating profit nearly doubled in the past business year on strong sales of radio-controlled watches and mobile phone parts, and gave a better-than-expected forecast for double-digit profit growth this year.
Citizen, a maker of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) used to illuminate cell phones, forecast group operating profit to rise 15.5 percent to a record 41 billion yen ($357.9 million) in the year to March 2005 on sales of 400 billion yen, up 6.5 percent.
The forecast was more bullish than the market consensus of a 37.5 billion yen operating profit on revenues of 383 billion yen, according to a poll of nine analysts by Reuters Research.
"My first impression is that this is a positive surprise...We were looking for no profit growth this year taking into consideration the risk of a strong yen," said J.P. Morgan analyst Hisashi Moriyama, who rates Citizen Watch's stock at "neutral".
"For the company to come out with a forecast like this at this stage in the game shows it is confident that all major segments -- watches, LEDs and industrial machinery -- will continue to perform well and contribute to earnings growth."
Through subsidiary Citizen Electronics <6892.Q>, Citizen Watch is a major supplier of LED chips and liquid crystal display backlight units to the world's largest mobile phone maker, Nokia <NOK1V.HE>, and to Japan's top producer NEC Corp <6701.T>.
Last week, Citizen Electronics projected that its operating profit would rise 25 percent in 2004/2005, citing expectations for continued growth in the cellphone market and a higher percentage of phones equipped with colour screens.
Citizen Watch owns 66 percent of Citizen Electronics, which reported a doubling of group operating profit in the past business year to 17.7 billion yen, accounting for about half percent of the parent's operating income in 2003/04.
"About 80 percent of our business is tied to the cell phone market. And to put it simply, that market was booming," said Minoru Okamoto, executive director of Citizen Electronics, at a gathering of analysts and reporters earlier in the day.
GOOD FIGHT
For the year ended March 31, Citizen Watch posted an 80.4 percent rise in operating profit to 35.51 billion yen as sales increased 12.5 percent to 375.72 billion yen.
Net profit more than tripled to 19.68 billion yen, boosted by a sharp drop in special losses, which had depressed its bottom line in 2002/03.
The company said revenues in its watch division slumped five percent in 2003/04, but operating profit jumped 21 percent thanks to brisk sales of high-margin radio-synchronised watches, which receive radio signals that ensure they remain accurate.
Casio Computer Co Ltd <6952.T> and Citizen Watch were the only two domestic players in this fast-growing segment of the watch market until Seiko Corp <8050.T> made it three by launching its own line-up of radio-controlled watches last month.
"Before it was just us and Casio, but Seiko's entry should help to stoke overall demand. I expect it to be a good fight," Citizen Watch director Osamu Yamada told a news conference.
Revenues in Citizen Watch's industrial machinery division rose 29 percent to 28 billion yen in the previous business year, fuelled by a recovery in demand from the electronics and auto sectors.
Operating profit in the division jumped 181 percent in 2003/04 and is seen up another 10 percent this year.
-
Visitante
14 May 2004 13:54
ANALYSIS-Nokia's sickly share hostage to new phones, outlook
By Brett Young
HELSINKI, May 14 (Reuters) - If Nokia's <NOK1V.HE> stock is to recover from its recent dive to near five-year lows the Finnish company must launch flashy new phones and provide more detailed earnings outlook, analysts said on Friday.
Nokia's shares have been in free-fall since the world's largest mobile phone maker shocked investors with two warnings in 10 days in April, saying its patchy handset portfolio could not sate consumer demand.
Since then the stock has also been hit by data showing rivals like Korea's Samsung Electronics <005930.KS> and Motorola <MOT.N> are grabbing handset market share, and worries about rising interest rates have also started to weigh.
On Friday the share punctured the 11-euro level for the first time in over a year, and a close below 11.10 euros would be the lowest since December 1998, the year when Nokia vaulted past Motorola to become the world's top cellphone maker.
"The first-quarter (result) scared people so much that we don't have a very good idea where earnings will be at the end of the year," said FIM Securities analyst Jussi Hyoty. "It seems the faith has been gone now for some time."
Analysts said while the stock could still drop further, they expected the slide to end soon as the valuation was becoming attractive. Nokia has also shown itself ready this year to buy back its own shares aggressively.
Nokia is cheaper than Motorola on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis, trading at around 15 times forecast 2004 earnings versus 25 times for its U.S. rival, based on Reuters 3000 data. Nokia's 2005 P/E ratio is 13 against 21 for Motorola.
And the Finnish firm's balance sheet has few rivals, with some 11 billion euros ($12.98 billion) in cash -- over 20 percent of its market capitalisation -- which dwarfs its mere 19 million euros in long-term interest-bearing liabilities.
"Nokia's valuation is OK, but the trend is still against them. I think that the stock could go to 10.50 euros before we start to see some strong buying," said fund manager Jarmo Nieminen at Nordea Investment Management.
"But we have to see some triggers from the company itself before the trend will turn," he said.
SHOW ME THE PHONES
Analysts said a key trigger would be new phone launches, as this would show investors Nokia was back on track to regain market share following its early 2004 stumble.
"We need some kind of evidence of new phones, clamshell phones, to help," said Opstock analyst Hannu Rauhala, who rates Nokia shares at "accumulate".
"I think that when news comes people could switch from other companies like Motorola back into Nokia," he said.
A London-based analyst added: "To believe in a recovery you have to believe they will have new products that will regain their market share, but we have not seen them yet."
Another factor is Nokia's earnings outlook, with analysts saying visibility remains poor. According to Reuters data, 2004 earnings per share estimates range between 0.66-0.91 euros -- a huge spread for a firm that has usually managed market expectations well.
But some analysts said even with harder information at hand, they would remain sceptical.
"There will eventually be a share bounce, but I don't know if Nokia will make it back to the multiples it once had," the London analyst said.
NK
ANALYSIS-Nokia's sickly share hostage to new phones, outlook
By Brett Young
HELSINKI, May 14 (Reuters) - If Nokia's <NOK1V.HE> stock is to recover from its recent dive to near five-year lows the Finnish company must launch flashy new phones and provide more detailed earnings outlook, analysts said on Friday.
Nokia's shares have been in free-fall since the world's largest mobile phone maker shocked investors with two warnings in 10 days in April, saying its patchy handset portfolio could not sate consumer demand.
Since then the stock has also been hit by data showing rivals like Korea's Samsung Electronics <005930.KS> and Motorola <MOT.N> are grabbing handset market share, and worries about rising interest rates have also started to weigh.
On Friday the share punctured the 11-euro level for the first time in over a year, and a close below 11.10 euros would be the lowest since December 1998, the year when Nokia vaulted past Motorola to become the world's top cellphone maker.
"The first-quarter (result) scared people so much that we don't have a very good idea where earnings will be at the end of the year," said FIM Securities analyst Jussi Hyoty. "It seems the faith has been gone now for some time."
Analysts said while the stock could still drop further, they expected the slide to end soon as the valuation was becoming attractive. Nokia has also shown itself ready this year to buy back its own shares aggressively.
Nokia is cheaper than Motorola on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis, trading at around 15 times forecast 2004 earnings versus 25 times for its U.S. rival, based on Reuters 3000 data. Nokia's 2005 P/E ratio is 13 against 21 for Motorola.
And the Finnish firm's balance sheet has few rivals, with some 11 billion euros ($12.98 billion) in cash -- over 20 percent of its market capitalisation -- which dwarfs its mere 19 million euros in long-term interest-bearing liabilities.
"Nokia's valuation is OK, but the trend is still against them. I think that the stock could go to 10.50 euros before we start to see some strong buying," said fund manager Jarmo Nieminen at Nordea Investment Management.
"But we have to see some triggers from the company itself before the trend will turn," he said.
SHOW ME THE PHONES
Analysts said a key trigger would be new phone launches, as this would show investors Nokia was back on track to regain market share following its early 2004 stumble.
"We need some kind of evidence of new phones, clamshell phones, to help," said Opstock analyst Hannu Rauhala, who rates Nokia shares at "accumulate".
"I think that when news comes people could switch from other companies like Motorola back into Nokia," he said.
A London-based analyst added: "To believe in a recovery you have to believe they will have new products that will regain their market share, but we have not seen them yet."
Another factor is Nokia's earnings outlook, with analysts saying visibility remains poor. According to Reuters data, 2004 earnings per share estimates range between 0.66-0.91 euros -- a huge spread for a firm that has usually managed market expectations well.
But some analysts said even with harder information at hand, they would remain sceptical.
"There will eventually be a share bounce, but I don't know if Nokia will make it back to the multiples it once had," the London analyst said.
NK
- Mensagens: 53
- Registado: 8/11/2003 19:22
- Localização: Lisboa
Bom Sinal...
Tomei conhecimento hoje que os hedge funds estão a entrar longos em Nokia, pois são eles que dominam grande parte do volume de negociação destes título, historicamente. Realmente constato que o volume foi considerável, o que promete. De certa forma estão a antecipar-se a quem esperava pelos 10 e 10.5. Com estas entradas pode ser que o título não vá aqueles targets e force entradas já de outros.
14-5-2004 close 11.19 open 11.26 high 11.4 low 10.97 bid 11.18 ask 11.19 volume 57463736 LAST TRADE 11.19 turnover 637114.0 vwap 11.08
com lucros para todos e saúde para os gozar
NK
14-5-2004 close 11.19 open 11.26 high 11.4 low 10.97 bid 11.18 ask 11.19 volume 57463736 LAST TRADE 11.19 turnover 637114.0 vwap 11.08
com lucros para todos e saúde para os gozar
NK
-
Visitante
fonte site da nokia
Nokia at TeleManagement World Nice
May 14, 2004
Nokia launches a range of new multivendor solutions for network and service operations efficiency
Nokia launches a range of new Operations Support System tools for mobile operators as part of its Nokia NetActTM portfolio at the TeleManagement World conference (TMW). These tools combined with Nokia's expert services for operators, underline Nokia's commitment to multivendor solutions and mobile network and service management efficiency.
Specifically addressing the need for multivendor solutions, Nokia NetActTM Traffica for multi-vendor Core is a tool that offers visibility to traffic over all circuit and packet switched networks regardless of the network equipment vendor. This tool offers operators higher service quality, faster customer complaint resolution and increased visibility to subscriber and service behaviour; all in real-time.
In addition, Nokia NetActTM Intelligent Service Configurator, Nokia NetActTM Optimal Planner and Nokia NetActTM Service Optimizer highlight Nokia's commitment to efficient network operations through maximum re-use of existing resources targeting lower operating costs and speeding up the service launch.
"Operators are increasingly looking for solutions to get more from their networks. Operators are seeking ways to run their networks more efficiently - managing many technologies at once. We trust that with our operational and end-to-end mobile expertise, we can greatly support operators, enabling them to offer high quality mobile services in a cost-efficient way to their customers," says Jyrki Holmala, Vice President & General Manager, Nokia Operations Solutions, Networks, Nokia.
"This support ranges from Nokia NetAct tools to our commitment and experience in providing expert optimizing, operating, advisory, development and benchmarking services also as a managed service provider," he adds.
Nokia will also be giving demonstrations at the OSS through JavaTM initiative's stand reinforcing its dedication to the initiative and open standards.
As Nokia helps operators to get more from mobile networks and services, it can draw on its over 15-year track record of deploying and operating networks and its extensive practical experience of implementing mobile services for the operators. Nokia has contracted operating services for 19 operators globally, in addition to providing full turnkey implementations for a total of 24 operators. The NetActTM framework, the unique Nokia network and service management system, has been delivered to over 300 customers worldwide.
Nokia is the world leader in mobile communications, driving the growth and sustainability of the broader mobility industry. Nokia is dedicated to enhancing people's lives and productivity by providing easy-to-use and secure products like mobile phones, and solutions for imaging, games, media, mobile network operators and businesses. Nokia is a broadly held company with listings on five major exchanges.
Media Enquiries:
Nokia Networks
Communications
Tel. 358 7180 38198
Email: networks.communications@nokia.com
Nokia
Communications
Tel. +358 7180 34900
Email: press.office@nokia.com
www.nokia.com
Notes to editors
Nokia NetActTM Intelligent Service Configurator
This unique tool gives compelling benefits to the operators:
Supports effective management of a large number of services and hides the increasing complexity of the network.
Enables the generation of new revenue from a currently untapped market for small segment and short-term services.
Ensures service quality by integrating service assurance and enhancing data synchronization. Makes it easier for operators and service providers to jointly build and manage networks and services.
Utilizes a standardized service model by Service Management Framework (SMF) activity in TeleManagement Forum.
Nokia NetActTM Optimal Planner is an Automatic Cell Planning tool for the 3G networks optimization. It is used to optimize Antenna tilt and azimuth angles, Antenna pattern and transmitted pilot power. The benefits include:
About 30% enhancement of network performance: achieving higher capacity and enhanced radio quality, as well as reducing blocking and dropped calls without any loss of the initial coverage.
Significant cost savings for operators due to better use of network capability and resources.
Best quality for subscribers.
Faster, easy and reliable optimization: Optimal Planner performs the whole optimization automatically. Furthermore importing and exporting data between WCDMA Planner and Optimal Planner is straightforward, with no manual editing needed during the import or export process.
Nokia NetActTM Service Optimizer is a new optimization tool that raises the objective from network element parameterization to defining, monitoring and optimizing the range of mobile services in the network. Service Optimizer introduces a mechanism to map services into treatment classes and to analyze the performance of each of these classes over several network domains. When decreased performance is identified, it is possible to drill down into details to discover in which network elements the problems occur and the possible causes. Service Optimizer also provides automated functionality to balance the capacity reserved for GPRS traffic in base stations.
Benefits for the operator include:
Automated optimization process requiring less resources
Improved accuracy in optimization
Better network capacity utilization
Improved network performance
Better control to service quality
Benefits for the subscriber:
Reliable and fast application availability
Nokia NetActTM Traffica is a real-time traffic monitoring and troubleshooting tool, offering to the operator detailed visibility to the actual network and service usage. Traffica functionality includes real-time graphs to visualize the traffic, threshold alarms, direct record access for detailed analysis and interaction with the other Service Assurance applications of the NetAct(TM) framework. Traffica brings benefits to many departments in the operator's organization, like O&M for faster problem detection and troubleshooting, customer care for quick and precise answers to customer complaints, planning for better visibility on actual load, marketing for subscribers behaviour analysis.
For this operator this means they can:
See the real usage of the network in real time
Detect & troubleshoot network problems faster (this helps the operators to enhance the network quality experienced by the subscriber)
Analyse customer behaviour, roaming and mobile types
Identify capacity bottlenecks or under-used services
Optimize network usage and revenue
For the subscriber this means:
Better and faster response to customer complaints
Visit the Nokia stand (#94) at TeleManagement World 2004 Nice.
May 14, 2004
Nokia launches a range of new multivendor solutions for network and service operations efficiency
Nokia launches a range of new Operations Support System tools for mobile operators as part of its Nokia NetActTM portfolio at the TeleManagement World conference (TMW). These tools combined with Nokia's expert services for operators, underline Nokia's commitment to multivendor solutions and mobile network and service management efficiency.
Specifically addressing the need for multivendor solutions, Nokia NetActTM Traffica for multi-vendor Core is a tool that offers visibility to traffic over all circuit and packet switched networks regardless of the network equipment vendor. This tool offers operators higher service quality, faster customer complaint resolution and increased visibility to subscriber and service behaviour; all in real-time.
In addition, Nokia NetActTM Intelligent Service Configurator, Nokia NetActTM Optimal Planner and Nokia NetActTM Service Optimizer highlight Nokia's commitment to efficient network operations through maximum re-use of existing resources targeting lower operating costs and speeding up the service launch.
"Operators are increasingly looking for solutions to get more from their networks. Operators are seeking ways to run their networks more efficiently - managing many technologies at once. We trust that with our operational and end-to-end mobile expertise, we can greatly support operators, enabling them to offer high quality mobile services in a cost-efficient way to their customers," says Jyrki Holmala, Vice President & General Manager, Nokia Operations Solutions, Networks, Nokia.
"This support ranges from Nokia NetAct tools to our commitment and experience in providing expert optimizing, operating, advisory, development and benchmarking services also as a managed service provider," he adds.
Nokia will also be giving demonstrations at the OSS through JavaTM initiative's stand reinforcing its dedication to the initiative and open standards.
As Nokia helps operators to get more from mobile networks and services, it can draw on its over 15-year track record of deploying and operating networks and its extensive practical experience of implementing mobile services for the operators. Nokia has contracted operating services for 19 operators globally, in addition to providing full turnkey implementations for a total of 24 operators. The NetActTM framework, the unique Nokia network and service management system, has been delivered to over 300 customers worldwide.
Nokia is the world leader in mobile communications, driving the growth and sustainability of the broader mobility industry. Nokia is dedicated to enhancing people's lives and productivity by providing easy-to-use and secure products like mobile phones, and solutions for imaging, games, media, mobile network operators and businesses. Nokia is a broadly held company with listings on five major exchanges.
Media Enquiries:
Nokia Networks
Communications
Tel. 358 7180 38198
Email: networks.communications@nokia.com
Nokia
Communications
Tel. +358 7180 34900
Email: press.office@nokia.com
www.nokia.com
Notes to editors
Nokia NetActTM Intelligent Service Configurator
This unique tool gives compelling benefits to the operators:
Supports effective management of a large number of services and hides the increasing complexity of the network.
Enables the generation of new revenue from a currently untapped market for small segment and short-term services.
Ensures service quality by integrating service assurance and enhancing data synchronization. Makes it easier for operators and service providers to jointly build and manage networks and services.
Utilizes a standardized service model by Service Management Framework (SMF) activity in TeleManagement Forum.
Nokia NetActTM Optimal Planner is an Automatic Cell Planning tool for the 3G networks optimization. It is used to optimize Antenna tilt and azimuth angles, Antenna pattern and transmitted pilot power. The benefits include:
About 30% enhancement of network performance: achieving higher capacity and enhanced radio quality, as well as reducing blocking and dropped calls without any loss of the initial coverage.
Significant cost savings for operators due to better use of network capability and resources.
Best quality for subscribers.
Faster, easy and reliable optimization: Optimal Planner performs the whole optimization automatically. Furthermore importing and exporting data between WCDMA Planner and Optimal Planner is straightforward, with no manual editing needed during the import or export process.
Nokia NetActTM Service Optimizer is a new optimization tool that raises the objective from network element parameterization to defining, monitoring and optimizing the range of mobile services in the network. Service Optimizer introduces a mechanism to map services into treatment classes and to analyze the performance of each of these classes over several network domains. When decreased performance is identified, it is possible to drill down into details to discover in which network elements the problems occur and the possible causes. Service Optimizer also provides automated functionality to balance the capacity reserved for GPRS traffic in base stations.
Benefits for the operator include:
Automated optimization process requiring less resources
Improved accuracy in optimization
Better network capacity utilization
Improved network performance
Better control to service quality
Benefits for the subscriber:
Reliable and fast application availability
Nokia NetActTM Traffica is a real-time traffic monitoring and troubleshooting tool, offering to the operator detailed visibility to the actual network and service usage. Traffica functionality includes real-time graphs to visualize the traffic, threshold alarms, direct record access for detailed analysis and interaction with the other Service Assurance applications of the NetAct(TM) framework. Traffica brings benefits to many departments in the operator's organization, like O&M for faster problem detection and troubleshooting, customer care for quick and precise answers to customer complaints, planning for better visibility on actual load, marketing for subscribers behaviour analysis.
For this operator this means they can:
See the real usage of the network in real time
Detect & troubleshoot network problems faster (this helps the operators to enhance the network quality experienced by the subscriber)
Analyse customer behaviour, roaming and mobile types
Identify capacity bottlenecks or under-used services
Optimize network usage and revenue
For the subscriber this means:
Better and faster response to customer complaints
Visit the Nokia stand (#94) at TeleManagement World 2004 Nice.
Naquele dia ,todo o joelho se dobrará e toda a lingua confessará:
- Que Jesus Cristo é o Senhor!
- Que Jesus Cristo é o Senhor!
- Mensagens: 1421
- Registado: 5/9/2003 21:18
Pois, na minha opinião a Nokia volta a estar apetecível nestes níveis.
Pelo menos existe aqui na zona dos 10.50/11.00 um suporte historico relativamente importante (não conheço bem a Nokia mas pelo que tenho acompanhado e pelo que tenho visto nos gráficos é o nível mais relevante).
Digo volta pois já tinha detectado um possível suporte nos 12-12.50 que entretanto falhou e na altura defendi que o próximo deveríam ser então os 10.50-11.00...
Estamos lá agora pelo que me volta a parecer um momento de risco versus benefício relativamente interessante.
É claro, a Nokia parece-me sempre um título bastante arriscado. Pessoalmente não colocaría lá mais do que 1% da carteira em warrants sobre a Nokia.
Pelo menos existe aqui na zona dos 10.50/11.00 um suporte historico relativamente importante (não conheço bem a Nokia mas pelo que tenho acompanhado e pelo que tenho visto nos gráficos é o nível mais relevante).
Digo volta pois já tinha detectado um possível suporte nos 12-12.50 que entretanto falhou e na altura defendi que o próximo deveríam ser então os 10.50-11.00...
Estamos lá agora pelo que me volta a parecer um momento de risco versus benefício relativamente interessante.
É claro, a Nokia parece-me sempre um título bastante arriscado. Pessoalmente não colocaría lá mais do que 1% da carteira em warrants sobre a Nokia.
FLOP - Fundamental Laws Of Profit
1. Mais vale perder um ganho que ganhar uma perda, a menos que se cumpra a Segunda Lei.
2. A expectativa de ganho deve superar a expectativa de perda, onde a expectativa mede a
__.amplitude média do ganho/perda contra a respectiva probabilidade.
3. A Primeira Lei não é mesmo necessária mas com Três Leis isto fica definitivamente mais giro.
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- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 41026
- Registado: 4/11/2002 22:16
- Localização: Porto
A barreira psicológica dos €11,00 acabou de ser quebrada! Neste momento está a cotar a €10,99. Alguém sabe se hoje saiu alguma noticia para estar a cair mais de 3%? Não encontrei nada..
Parece certo que vamos pela 3ª vez na história dos ultimos anos testar o suporte dos €10,50. Mas julgo que até lá a queda seja mais lenta, pois acho que deverão começar a agarra-la agora (quem faz mesmo mexer a cotação)
itisi100
Parece certo que vamos pela 3ª vez na história dos ultimos anos testar o suporte dos €10,50. Mas julgo que até lá a queda seja mais lenta, pois acho que deverão começar a agarra-la agora (quem faz mesmo mexer a cotação)
itisi100
- Mensagens: 297
- Registado: 9/7/2003 12:27
, e estableci os 11,40 como patamar para sair, se as coisas corressem mal! Até hoje, parecia um bom suporte! Andou por ali a rasar, mesmo enquanto o resto caia forte e feio.
A escala é semi log como podes ver pela disproporção dos intervalos da escala no eixo dos Ys (preços).
E concordo em absoluto com o comentário acerca de tentativas de adivinhar pontos de inversão. Sempre achei que era tarefa quasi-sobre-humana adivinhar topos e fundos quer usando AT, quer AF. Claro que usando bases de AF fortes...podemos pelo menos justificar entradas a partir dos valores X ou Y quando pela AF parecem facas em queda e hot-no-touch-stocks.
E concordo em absoluto com o comentário acerca de tentativas de adivinhar pontos de inversão. Sempre achei que era tarefa quasi-sobre-humana adivinhar topos e fundos quer usando AT, quer AF. Claro que usando bases de AF fortes...podemos pelo menos justificar entradas a partir dos valores X ou Y quando pela AF parecem facas em queda e hot-no-touch-stocks.
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- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 20972
- Registado: 25/10/2002 17:02
- Localização: Lisboa
Bem, sem querer bater no ceguinho ou tirar a vontade de rir ao jarc, a nokia continua para já sem dar quaisquer sinais positivos e continua a cair mais 3% aproximadamente. A queda semanal vai em cerca de 5.5% neste momento.
Ao actualizar o gráfico simulei o que seria uma queda equivalente à de jan de 2003 ideia lançado pelo jas no inicio do tópico, e o resultado traria a nokia a 10 euros antes de recuperar... fica o boneco em escala semanal.
Ao actualizar o gráfico simulei o que seria uma queda equivalente à de jan de 2003 ideia lançado pelo jas no inicio do tópico, e o resultado traria a nokia a 10 euros antes de recuperar... fica o boneco em escala semanal.
- Anexos
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- nokia semanal.png (28.32 KiB) Visualizado 948 vezes
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- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 20972
- Registado: 25/10/2002 17:02
- Localização: Lisboa
Bem, sem querer bater no ceguinho ou tirar a vontade de rir ao jarc, a nokia continua para já sem dar quaisquer sinais positivos e continua a cair mais 2.5%. A queda semanal vai em cerca de 5% neste momento.
Ao actualizar o gráfico simulei o que seria uma queda equivalente à de jan de 2003 ideia lançado pelo jas no inicio do tópico, e o resultado traria a nokia a 10 euros antes de recuperar... fica o boneco em escala semanal.
Ao actualizar o gráfico simulei o que seria uma queda equivalente à de jan de 2003 ideia lançado pelo jas no inicio do tópico, e o resultado traria a nokia a 10 euros antes de recuperar... fica o boneco em escala semanal.
- Anexos
-
- nokia semanal.png (28.32 KiB) Visualizado 946 vezes
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- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 20972
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Saxo, a nokia ao longo dos anos tem feito compra de acções próprias, sobretudo porque tem usado a politica de bonus com stock options muito popular como forma de remuneração nos tempos da bolha apesar de ser uma forma algo duvidosa de retirar valor da empresa a favor dos empregados. Mas pelo que li algures, essa politica está a tornar-se relativamente menos popular (se calhar em parte pela queda das cotações 
) e é por isso natural que vá diminuindo....
) e é por isso natural que vá diminuindo....-
- Administrador Fórum
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acções proprias
Fui ei que referi CAP da Nokia.
Segundo o site http://www.kauppalehti.fi/4/i/eng/stock ... tiedotteet estas tem ocorrido bastantes vezes.
A última refência diz:
"Nokia Corporation now holds a total of 61.000.000 shares including the Shares repurchased on 07.05.2004."
Segundo o site http://www.kauppalehti.fi/4/i/eng/stock ... tiedotteet estas tem ocorrido bastantes vezes.
A última refência diz:
"Nokia Corporation now holds a total of 61.000.000 shares including the Shares repurchased on 07.05.2004."
- Mensagens: 136
- Registado: 10/5/2004 13:42
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Novo minimo das ultimas 52 semanas atingido hoje a €11,44. Não me parece que fique por aqui.
Diga-se o que se disser, 1 em cada 3 telemoveis no mundo são Nokias. A geração 3G está ao virar da esquina e não acredito que a Nokia fique de braços cruzados a ver as concorrentes passar.
Julgo já ter sido demasiado penalizada (quase 50%!) e apesar de tecnicamente não dar sinal de entrada (longe disso), os fundamentais justificam a compra, até porque todos querem apanha-la no fundo mesmo, quando, se cair, não deverá ser muito mais, pelo que acho que a entrada a estes niveis poderá compensar.
Até porque não existe forma de saber quando se atinge o fundo. É quando o mercado achar, e não julgo faltar muito.
itisi100
Diga-se o que se disser, 1 em cada 3 telemoveis no mundo são Nokias. A geração 3G está ao virar da esquina e não acredito que a Nokia fique de braços cruzados a ver as concorrentes passar.
Julgo já ter sido demasiado penalizada (quase 50%!) e apesar de tecnicamente não dar sinal de entrada (longe disso), os fundamentais justificam a compra, até porque todos querem apanha-la no fundo mesmo, quando, se cair, não deverá ser muito mais, pelo que acho que a entrada a estes niveis poderá compensar.
Até porque não existe forma de saber quando se atinge o fundo. É quando o mercado achar, e não julgo faltar muito.
itisi100
- Mensagens: 297
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Nokia
JAS Escreveu:Por exemplo se, há 1 ano e como tu dizes, as perspectivas eram assim tão maravilhosas porque caíu ela de 20 para 11???
É evidente que em termos fundamentais não passou a valer metade...
E nem a recaída do Bull Market, então iniciado, justifica tamanha queda.
Não respondeste a isto.
Porque compraram a 11 percebo eu... Talvez pela mesma razão que irão comprar agora a 8, não é?
Bjs
JAS
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Ó Jarc, mas não vejo porque te ris... não achas que deverias chorar por comprar acções por causa de uma compra de acções própias de que nada sabes, por achar que uma queda de quase 50% numa acção se deve a correcção de dividendos e dos mercados..? pronto, cada um coze-se com as linhas que quer. O mercado pelos vistos não se ri tanto quanto tu.
Ah, by the way, queres uma acção que se compra a 6 e se vende a 9 ou 10? é a nokia com os novos fundamentais. Só tens que esperar para aproveitar a dica, é exactamente o que faz o pessoal dos fundamentais e o que fez no passado.
Ah, by the way, queres uma acção que se compra a 6 e se vende a 9 ou 10? é a nokia com os novos fundamentais. Só tens que esperar para aproveitar a dica, é exactamente o que faz o pessoal dos fundamentais e o que fez no passado.
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nokia
Bem... em relação ao programa de compra de acções recordo-me de ter aqui visto um post a esse propósito mas nada mais. A propósito do que escreve a pata há uma coisas risíveis (como a história que se conta de que a nokia não soube ver a tendência)e há mesmo uma que vai fazer sucesso pelo sentido de humor: "Compraram a 12-13 para vender a 18-20 
". Então concluimos que a 14, 15, 16 e 17 compraram os patos que sem perceberem de fundamentais compraram. Ou compraram pela AT?
Já aqui escrevi que tenho uma posição reduzida na empresa que resulta do convencimento que a grande queda se deve mais à grande correcção que resulta esencialmente de outros dois factores (entrada em ex-dividendo e correcção do mercado em geral).
A propósito da incapacidade de prever o futuro espreitem o smartphone.
Sempre que souberem de títulos que se compram a 12-13 e se vendem a 20, agradeço uma dica
Bom fds
". Então concluimos que a 14, 15, 16 e 17 compraram os patos que sem perceberem de fundamentais compraram. Ou compraram pela AT?
Já aqui escrevi que tenho uma posição reduzida na empresa que resulta do convencimento que a grande queda se deve mais à grande correcção que resulta esencialmente de outros dois factores (entrada em ex-dividendo e correcção do mercado em geral).
A propósito da incapacidade de prever o futuro espreitem o smartphone.
Sempre que souberem de títulos que se compram a 12-13 e se vendem a 20, agradeço uma dica
Bom fds
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jas, mas esse teu range de 11 a 20 é exactamente o range que quem comprou pelos fundamentais do ano anterior usou. Quem comprou nessa altura, comprou tudo o que conseguiu entre os 11 e os 13 e vendeu acima dos 18 e até aos 20.
O range a ser usado agora é outro, a musica é outra e as condições de mercado também são, qual a dúvida?
O range a ser usado agora é outro, a musica é outra e as condições de mercado também são, qual a dúvida?
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Nokia
Pata-Hari Escreveu:Jas, penso que te vou desiludir e quase chocar com a minha resposta... mas os fundamentais da empresa alteraram-se significativamente de um ponto para outro. E não foi para melhor...
Os 12 de há um ano correspondiam a uma valorização em termos de rácios dadas as perspectivas de vendas e de quota de mercado que agora já não corresponde à nova realidade. A nokia está a perder quota de mercado pela primeira vez e já não faz sentido pagar valores dessa ordem por uma empresa que deixou de crescer.
Como sempre disse a minha entrada na Nokia foi contra a minha regra "de só entrar em acções que conheço bem".
E eu continuo a saber bastante pouco da Nokia...
Por exemplo se, há 1 ano e como tu dizes, as perspectivas eram assim tão maravilhosas porque caíu ela de 20 para 11???
É evidente que em termos fundamentais não passou a valer metade...
E nem a recaída do Bull Market, então iniciado, justifica tamanha queda.
Mesmo que o panorama da Nokia possa ser algo negro o que é certo é que ela caíu numa primeira fase com a decepção dos resultados e numa segunda fase com essas perspectivas de não crescimento.
Mas chegará certamente a um ponto que irá constituir um mínimo...
E se num Bull Market até empresas falidas sobem certamente que a Nokia também o fará.
Visitante Escreveu:Jas, agradeço informação sobre duas coisas se for possível. Primeiro em relação à compra de acções próprias. Diz-se que a empresa tem um programa de compra de acções próprias. Depois em relação à divisão de acções (split). Em relação ao split gostaria de saber quando ocorreu e em que proporção. Gostaria ainda de ver aqui a tua opinião sobre o futuro da empresa.
Sobre a primeira parte é possível que a Pata-Hari te consiga responder.
Sobre o futuro da empresa eu apenas posso dizer o que penso sobre a evolução da cotação. É normal num caso deste tipo, em que apenas há uma diminuição de vendas de 2%(quando se previa crescimento) e uma diminuição de quota de mercado, que se assista de seguida a um rebound e que este seja significativo.
Isto, pelo menos, seria o normal...
JAS
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Nokia
Caro JAS, a tua dúvida tb é a nossa dúvida! Deixo aqui o gráfico e deixo à vossa consideração a sobrevenda quer do MACD, quer do RSI (em níveis históricos) e a enorme distribuição a que tem sido sujeita.
Ela está a níveis históricos e custa-me a acreditar que caia mais ainda, até porque se cair não tem propriamente dito onde se aguente...
Um abraço,
T. Martins
Ela está a níveis históricos e custa-me a acreditar que caia mais ainda, até porque se cair não tem propriamente dito onde se aguente...
Um abraço,
T. Martins
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