CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Acho que o Nichols hoje caiu num lugar comum que é esta frase: "There are too many uncertainties in the world right now, and the collective wisdom of market participants can't figure it all out yet. The Presidential election, Iraq, oil, terrorism, China (!), the Fed, earnings growth, inventory build-ups, jobs "

É sempre possível falar de incertezas externas ao mercado para justificar as nossas indecisões e as do mercado. A verdade é que essas incertezas acontecem SEMPRE. Se não é a China é o Paquistão, se não é as eleições presidenciais é a saúde de Greenspan, se não são os lucros são os escândalos financeiros, se não é a inflação é a desinflação, se não é o euro fraco é o dólar fraco...

Ou seja, factores de perturbação, de dúvida, de incerteza estão sempre presentes no mercado, mas só nos lembramos deles quando o mercado não se comporta muito bem e queremos justificar a nossa indecisão.

Beijos,
Ulisses

Tá giro o texto de hoje...

Vou copiar uma partezinha...

"By now it's safe to say that any back and forth trading action between SPX 1122 and 1148 is just market noise right now. It's going to take a convincing move through either of those areas to get the daily chart moving in a trending fashion, and potentially signal that the market is breaking its torpor and starting a trending move of magnitude. It's my feeling that after this long period of congestion, the SPX will put in a 100+ point trend, when it does get started.

But here's another thing to consider. There are too many uncertainties in the world right now, and the collective wisdom of market participants can't figure it all out yet. The Presidential election, Iraq, oil, terrorism, China (!), the Fed, earnings growth, inventory build-ups, jobs -- you name it -- and you can go out and find a well-considered, diametrically opposite opinion on each one of these topics and how it will affect financial markets. And this is embodied in the day-to-day struggle of up and down price movement we're seeing in the markets.

So was the news flow on Wednesday enough to trigger the markets into a major correction? Probably not. The thing that will correct the markets significantly is more likely to be a reaction to the Fed and monetary policy. And it's still not clear how that's going to play out. Although we should stay on our toes, as I read a learned piece today that warns that the bulk of the price damage in a new round of tightening comes right at the beginning. So if the market really is going to correct significantly back down towards SPX 1060, or even SPX 1000, then it's likely going to be because the Fed is embarking on a new tightening regime."

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