"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[Dwer]

Market Force: Bearish. Look to Sell Rallies today as we expect Bearish Market Force to produce lower prices.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, April 23, 2004:
Trade summary:

1)B@1136.26/S@1136.25 "scratch"

2) S@1136.50/B@1138.00 -1.50

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.

The market traded pretty flat on Friday with an early sell off confirming some early Bearish Market Force suggested in our Headline Call. Prices later pushed up off the lows but just barely were able to make progress above the opening price of 1139.10 which is a sign of weakness.

Here are my Wrap Up comments for the action in the live trading on Friday.

" The market opened up +3.00 today and we saw the prices move lower right off the first 30 minutes.

We had suggested that we would be looking for a buying opportunity on a lower move near the Hour One low. We got the pullback to the Hour One BreakDown and got long at 1136.25.

Prices tried to push higher but after some time in the trade we were getting signals that prices were heading lower. We rolled out of the long position at a "scratch" or Break even trade and entered a short slightly higher at 1136.50.

Price started breaking down shortly after that and we were monitoring the Trailblazer for a move lower towards 1130-31 to cover up the short. Prices reached 1133.25 and jumped from there.

We held on to the short and then got a huge spike Candle up. I checked down on the floor and the information I got was the at the pit was really thin at the time and it may have been locals just pushing prices around. Based on this I decided to hold out as the Market Force had changed to a more bearish tone on last nights calculations.

As prices pushed up and held the 1137.50 area I became a bit suspect of the down side move continuing being Friday with light volume so we cut out of the trade with a small 1-1.50 loss. We wrapped up trading for the day at that point and headed for the weekend.

So on balance a small -1.50 loss for the day.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call today is showing a Bearish Market Force which we especially expect to manifest on a HIGHER OPENING AND EARLY RUN UP IN PRICES.

If we get such action expect the selling to kick in later in the mid morning session or after Noon NY time.

The Key today is to see if we can get some early higher prices off the opening area that hold up going past the first hour. If they jump lower, run down a bit and THEN rally it won't kill the pattern but may delay the lower prices a bit longer. We are rather expecting the lowest prices later towards the closing hour anyway but these openings give good hints of things to come very often.

ACTION TO WATCH FOR: We are going to be looking for the BreakOut to be the first Hour One pivot hit today UNLESS we get a really messy tape (High Five) right off the opening hour.

If there is some early spark to the markets with prices moving higher then we can look to be selling above the B/O mid morning depending on the High Five and the Trailblazer patter on the charts.

If we get a nice, clean 3rd Level up move early then we are going to be ready to Sell into that AFTER the first hour has completed.

Value Area: 1,135.40 - 1,139.40
Watch for prices to rise and then pullback into the VA. This is a sign of weakness for today and if they push below the bottom of the VA that adds fuel to the fire.

Holding below 1135 and especially 1130 today is going to be very bearish for the price action.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,135.00 - 1,136.00
We have this Buy Pivot right here at the Bottom of the VA and as such if we hit this price and STALL without rallying then we can look for the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1130.75 to be important support. If that fails then we got a good clue that there could be some strong price erosion.

Next level down is 1126.00 which was the older number from 6-7 sessions ago that was the pivot for putting the Sell Mode into Aberration.

It's been a tug of war lately between the Mode changes like I have not seen in quite some time. Usually we get a smooth roll into the Buy or Sell Mode that our 18 proprietary indicators are indicating or we go into an aberration that reverses the other way pretty solidly. These Aberrations can last anywhere from a week to a month, sometimes even a bit longer.

So if we get a solid return to the Sell Mode again today then I expect we will get another trip down to test that 1113-14 area soon.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,142.50 - 1,141.50
We want to watch this area for a Trailblazer selling pattern. If we get this EARLY then we may sell off from here and form the BreakDown early. If the High Five get Ugly we could see a later sell off below the BreakDown today.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,130.80
We ran through the Pit Bull to the upside but I am expecting we are going to move back to the Pit Bull soon (today!) and head lower. This is the -4.25 stop/pivot BELOW the Buy Pivot target at 1135-36 .

This would be a good sign to watch for on seeing the BreakDown sell off today.

Pro Trader's Action
I've outlined the clear scenario's of what to look for today. I am more inclined to expect the early higher price to "hang up" for a while near the highs but if they run up there early (near 1142-46) and Sell Off quickly creating a bearish High five then we could get hammered off the BreakDown later in the session.

Good Luck with your trades and I'll see you in the action. Mohan

SPEAKING OF ACTION...Join me in the 21st Century Live Updates and watch how we decipher each period of the markets movement using Trailblazer and other important indicators to nail the action down. Try it for a month and you will see how much more clarity you will have in your trading like the hundreds who have joined with us.