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[Dwer]

Market Force: Mixed to Bullish. Market expected to hold support and move higher today after wild ride on Wednesday.

Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, April 14, 2004:
Trade summary: 1)B@1128.25/ Sell 1126.75 -1.50

TOTAL: -1.50

TCF2003: Market hit the BreakOut first at 1129.75 after a TCF setup called -8/+8 suggesting further upside. The High Five at the time of the B/O was very bullish but with Naz up +7-10 showing Neutral. With -8/+8 and H5 it was a difficult call. Market sold off 8 points from the B/O in a choppy first 2 hours and then trended lower to hit the B/D later in the session. Some may have bought the B/O, some may have sold it. The trade would have been to stand aside due to mixed signals.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

We had a very wild market on Wednesday and as mentioned in the briefing I was inclined to stand aside as we were in a transition phase between the Market Force and the day to day sequencing.

The behaviour of the markets had shown this to be true with the Pre-market selling off from the 1127.00 area and then finding support at the Buy Pivot target and then shooting up again to 1127.00 and higher.

Here is my closing commentary on our LIVE UPDATE SERVICE.

Wrap Up for Wednesday: In the Morning Call and the early commentary we were a bit reluctant to participate in the markets today as we were in a limbo point in the daily sequencing of the Market Force.

After a rally in Pre-market trading to around 1127.50 the market sold off strongly right off the open to 1121.25 which was the exact top of the Buy Pivot target.

A reversal rally ensued to hit the 1129.75 which was the Hour One BreakOut. The market pushed a bit higher and was showing a very bullish High Five causing concern that the -8/+8 bullish TCF setup might kick in. As the crazy market as of late would have it prices moved a bit above the BreakOut and traded in a range for an hour and a half in a volatile herky jerky type fashion finally selling off to 1127 support area.

We went long on a 3rd Level TB move down showing fills near 1128.25 area but very little reaction to the upside. So following our rules we cut out of the trade after giving it some professional patience to work out. Small loss of -1.50 on the long.

I had suggested standing aside the rest of the day as the market slowly drifted lower by about 4-5 points below our stop area. Later the market rallied a bit off the lows, came back down to hit the Buy Pivot target/BreakDown again and RALLIED ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1130.

This shows the extreme limbo nature of the market today. So we did not participate today other than the one trade. In hindsite the market, with the repeated wider range, traded within the parameters of the Hour One pivots dropping and rallying off of each one. Very unusual day for the last few months. This is due to the new Mode Shift to the SEll MODE but with underlying bullishness still alive in the Presidential election cycle plus the strong bullish technicals and fundamentals.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is Mixed to Bullish and we will be looking for the possibility of a BreakOut buy or higher prices off of the lows.

What appears to be happening (but not confirmed yet) is that we are going into an aberration on the Sell Mode and we are going back up again.

The horrendous world political/War situation as bad as it is ...simply is not selling off in a panic fashion. The market is discounting the mess.

So we want to see if we can be early on an aberration on the Sell Mode we are in WITH PRICES HOLDING ABOVE 1126.00 WHICH WAS OUR FIRST GOAL LOWER.

If we see this occuring today then we are going to be on the lookout for the surprise move higher to test the Pit Bull at 1138 area and even move through it back to 1142.00. Once we get up there then we go back into LIMBO.

How do we play this today: We will be looking for an early Sell off to find support, TRY TO MOVE LOWER, but then we will be looking for Trailblazer chart formations around the BreakDown Hour One pivot to get long.

If the first Hour One pivot is the BreakOut then we will be looking for the setup for a BreakOut Buy. We would want to see a STRONG NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) above +12-15 and higher. TRIN lower (although this wierd TRIN lately has not been reliable) and lower VIX.

The Market Force is there for higher prices IF we go into an aberration AND PRICES HOLD ABOVE THE OPENING TODAY AND 1126.00. We should then move higher and need to play for that action.

Obviously if the High Five is mega Bear Ugly and there is more devastating news about some GeoPolitical mess ....then don't expect higher prices please.

Let's get involved today on some of this trade volatility and have some fun while we do it.

Value Area: 1,122.40 - 1,129.00
The market struggled to hold the Value Area yesterday and today we are expecting that we will see prices move ABOVE the VA which would be a bullish sign.

Now remember, we are making this call based on seeing the market hold above the opening and 1126.00 to send our Sell Mode indicators into Aberration.

We should then see a slow, surprising move up today and holding strength through the FRIDAY OPTION EXPIRATION.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,123.00 - 1,124.00
Look for this area to show some support on a lower early move. We will be waiting for the first hour to finish like we almost always do before trading and will compare this zone to the Hour One BreakDown.

1118.75 should hold up any push lower in correlation with the B/D so watch that price.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,134.00 - 1,133.00
If we get the bullish action we expect today then we may see the prices move up here. If so and we see prices "hanging up" in this area then they are going higher usually.

1138.25 is where there is some resistance and we want to watch for that price which is RIGHT ABOVE THE PIT BULL.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,137.70
There is going to be some resistance here but we will know more today if we are in aberration on this Sell Mode we are in and we are going to move above the Pit Bull.

I expect there will be a period of consolidation around this number and we will not just blow through it with a power surge...just gradually move through it.

If I am too bullish about today it will come out in the numbers failing support at 1126.00 and the open. The High Five should reflect it too and we will reconfigure during this limbo period.

Pro Trader's Action
FRIDAY IS OPTION EXPIRATION. Just a reminder that we do not make Headline Calls or trades on Option expiration days.

Let's see if we get the lower BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot today and we can find the right configuration of Trailblazer chart pattern, High Five setup, and overall candlestick/price movement to get us long.

Good Luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action.

Mohan