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[Dwer]

Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. Look for mild higher prices early today that continue to show overall market weakness later in the session.

Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, April 8, 2004:
1)B@1143.75/S@1140.75 -3.00

2)S@1141.00/B@1136.00 +5.00

TOTAL: +2.00

TCF 2003 System Commentary: Market hit the BreakDown as first Hour One pivot with a very bullish High Five. TCF2003 would have bought BreakDown at 1141.50 and would have been stopped out for 6 points at 1135.50.

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the long weekend. Hope you had a chance to get some nice R&R.

Our Headline Call on Thursday was for a Neutral/Bullish daily mode and we were specifically looking for the confirmation of the Sell Mode the market is TRYING to enter. We had stated that as long as prices hold below 1144.00 that this would pull us closer to being "officially" in a Sell Mode that we can monitor. Here is a quote from Thursday's Briefing.

"The reason I say "officially" is although we had a sharp down day in the Dow (referring to Wed.) being down 90 bucks the S&P500 was only down 2 points. This is a sign that one way or the other there will be a balancing out of this divergence. Our indicators would suggest that would be to the downside."

THE MARKET GAPPED UP 7 POINTS ON THE OPEN fufilling our call for higher prices but we saw the sell off and weakness surrounding those higher prices right away.

We got the Sell off from the BreakDown on Thursday WITH A BULLISH HIGH FIVE starting out as we hit the B/D. Because we expected the new Sell Mode to start kicking in more on Thursday we were looking to Sell inspite of the High Five.

On our first trade we did Buy the market on a specific TB formation looking for the BreakOut to be the first pivot to get hit. This would have given us a profit on the way up had it been succesful and we would have looked to short the BreakOut accordingly.

We saw weakness kick in despite the bullish High Five, got stoppped out for a small -3.00 loss and reversed to the Sell side grabbing +5.00 gain and an extra +2.00 in gain on the total.

OF IMPORTANT NOTE: On our LIVE INTRADAY UPDATE (which I would urge all of our serious subscribers to join us on) I had been recommending holding short but being very cautious about a REFLEX RALLY off the lower numbers. We got out of the short on a spike lower move just 2.5 points from the low and later saw the market rally all the way back up to 1140 just a point below our entry so it was a very important call to get out. This is the excellent value of our live service.

An Important note on the older handbook 2003 TCF System: Those of you who have followed our trading work here for sometime on the Morning Call, been on our Live Update Service or attended one of my seminars know that I am a strict researcher of the S&P500 and it's reaction to our methods.

A lot of success of our newsletter came from the development of my specific system using the Hour One pivots and the other important numbers we show you each day. I have been using this system for over 5 years and began offering it publicly as a GIFT to serious traders/researchers through my newsletter first at Day Traders Action.com for about a year and then recently from Mid June 2003 to current through the 21st Century Futures "Morning Call".

That system shown in the Handbook along with the updated section is PART of what we do here in the Morning Call along with our daily Market Force one day directional Headline Call, underlying short term market directional calls using our highly accurate 18 proprietary indicators, longer term directional calls such as the one I gave for bullishness right as the war in Iraq began, as well as daily insight into crystal clear ways to read the market using specific numbers, indicators, and floor trader charting methods.

The markets of late November 2003, December and then in January and Feburary of 2004 had dramatically changed the effectiveness of that EXACT system shown in the Trading Handbook we have on our site. I added 2 specific UPDATES in Mid January of 2004 when I realized that we were in a different market with a different personality. Many traders who were newer to S&P500 trading had trouble even realizing that the underlying stucture of the market had changed along with difficulties in adapting to the changes. Our newsletter has always been primarily for intermediate to professional S&P500 traders.

These important updates stressed the need to take SMALLER PROFITS on any TCF setups that do occur as the ranges had/have shrunk considerably since the operation of this system in 2003.

The original profit goals mentioned in the TCF 2003 System were 8-10 points which generally WAS available ALMOST DAILY during 2003 getting in on the early intraday trend. That system was also very rarely stopped out for 6 points...an average of 1-2 times a month at most.

Most important is my addition of the TRAILBLAZER METHOD of approaching the markets to not only find additional intraday trading opportunities but PRIMARILY to use to enter the TCF setups that occur according to the handbook rules but with INCREASED ACCURACY AND REDUCED STOP POSITIONING.

Recently there has been some discussion and debate as to whether the original TCF setups (using an entry at the Hour One Pivots with the corresponding High Five and a 6 point stop entered with discretion) have continued to work since I did the important updates in Mid January.

I keep strict track of all the daily Hour One pivots, Buy/Sell Pivots and the markets reaction to them as well as the stop levels and ranges. I re-tooled the Handbook in January specifically because I could see that: 1) ranges had shrunk 2) Volatility had dried up considerably and 3) the reaction of the market to the High 5 had changed.

All of these are very important factors in trading my EXACT TCF SYSTEM.

For the sake of simplicity let's call the original Handbook system the "TCF 2003 System" even though I had been using it for over 5 years privately.

Now of course in the current market since January 2004 on occasion the setups shown in the Trading Handbook as outlined in the TCF 2003 system are going to show up and work where you simply bought the BreakDown or Sold the BreakOut and you made some points.

BUT AS AN EXACT SYSTEM as explained in the TCF Handbook and the way it operated in 2003 as shown in the previous briefings AS A DAILY OPERATING SYSTEM USING A 6 POINT STOP is not as accurate or as safe of a system as before.

Being a researcher and having seen the struggles of the TCF 2003 System in 2004 what I am going to do is add a NEW SECTION temporarily under our "Trade Setup Summary". In this section I will track and give a very brief commentary each trading day on how the market reacted to the TCF 2003 System.

In this way we will have a daily summary on this for a few months so we can see if indeed there is still something we can observe about that system being valid or useful in relation to how we are approaching the markets NOW. Also, because the original TCF Handbook is still there on our site along with the important January Updates together we can study and research the markets current reaction to our current approach.

I currently use the Hour One and Buy/Sell Pivots to recommend trades on our new LIVE INTRADAY UPDATE SERVICE using the Trailblazer charting methods to enter trades along with the High Five and other indicators I use combined with the reaction of the prices/candes, Value Area/ Market Profile, and my live 18 proprietary indicators and setups. Also my insight as to whether the current Market Force will override the High Five indicators at the time of the trades.

I feel that in this way we will have a good comparison of what is currently going on in the markets in relation to all of these approaches. So be sure to note today's first "TCF 2003 System Commentary" for Friday's action.

The key to trading the S&P500 is to make money with as much saftey as you can possibly achieve in this very high risk business. That is my only concern in trading and offering you the most cutting edge S&P500 newsletter and service in the industry.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today the Market Force is Bearish/Neutral. This means we are still expecting prices to get pushed lower on any HIGHER OPENING OR EARLY PRICE RALLY.

Now, today being Monday, it is important to lean more towards the bullish side and let the markets play out. As we develop our new approach more and more to the markets we are going to be willing to stand aside under certain circumstances in order to gain additional clarity when, like Friday, you have a polar opposite bullish High Five in contrast to a clearly Bearish Market Force at the time of the BreakDown.

I want to precision fine tune our trades more and more to these nuances, be willing to "miss" a specific trade with more urgency towards deciphering how the Market Force will play out. Going forward I think this will be a very effective approach as we tend to wait out the first hour most trading days also.

For today: It will be very important to see if we can rally above and hold above 1144.00. As we had discussed extensively last week ...Prices holding below are bearish and above will continue an upward movement by NOT FULLY CONFIRMING THE SELL MODE we are trying to enter into.

We ARE in the new Sell Mode but we do NOT have exact, specific CONFIRMATION with a strong down opening day. We had a strong Down Dow day on Wednesday with S&P500 relatively flat and then, as forecast, we had the S&P500 CATCH UP to the downside on Thursday prior to the holiday BUT ONLY TO REFLEX RALLY OFF THE 1133-34 LOW.

So today we are actually calling for an upward price movement on a lower opening and early drop but we are continuing to expect weakness on price rallies for today especially with a HIGHER OPENING and early move up.

So let's watch for the opening indications and I will update you Live on the Intraday Update service around 10:10 or so EST.

Join us today on our TCF Live Updates for the low cost of only 195$ a month. This includes my daily extensive commentary on market conditions, TCF setups, Trailblazer setups, chart patterns unfolding, urgent news from the floor during radical market movements or "air balls", Specific, exact trade entries, stops , exits and insights into my daily 18 proprietary indicators.

Value Area: 1,136.20 - 1,144.20
Watch the prices for a movement into the Value Area and then resistance at the top of the VA at our 1144.00 number specifically referred to above as a "Line in the Sand" for the current market.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,131.75 - 1,132.75
Watch for Trailblazer formations around this number and also comparing this with the Hour One pivots setup up after the first hour. Be aware of the stop/pivot at 1127.50 which if we do get will put us in very close proximity with the 1126.00 first goal lower number we discussed on Thursday.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,148.75 - 1,147.75
Moving above the Value Area this price zone here should be tough to get through UNLESS the High Five are rip roaring bullish. This is not expected for today although being Monday after a Holiday and with 2 of our primary 18 proprietary indicators bullish ...it is possible.

We will most likely be looking for a Trailblazer formation around this number to SELL along with the comparison of these numbers with the Hour One BreakOut.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,132.90
The Pit Bull and the lower prices on Thursday are now closing the gap between the two and we should see a Crossover to the Bearish side soon if indeed the Sell Mode is going to fully kick in.

Because we HAVE NOT seen the Sell Mode really light up to the downside, the market reflexed off those lows of 1133-34 on Thursday pretty strongly and THE NEWS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY BEARISH AND UGLY....there is a very strong chance that the BUYING WILL RESUME and we will never see this current Sell Mode take hold.

Pro Trader's Action
In my comments above I am specifically referring to the fact that inspite of the horrendous news with so many people getting killed in Iraq, hostages getting taken, and skuffles in other countries THE MARKET IS NOT GETTING HAMMERED. Indeed it is DISCOUNTING THE BUMMER.

We have to take this fact into consideration, watch our numbers shown above very carefully in relation to the Sell Mode going into aberration above 1144.00 (and thus returning to bullishness) and trade accordingly.

The jury is stll out as of Thursday so today will be another pivotal day in seeing which side of the coin we will stand on. The additional information supplied by the Pit Bull number will be of great assistance in watching any support there too or whether there is a solid Crossover blast to the downside.

Let's have a great week and get into the trading action with a focus on nailing the correct trend that will unfold soon.

All the best of luck and success. Mohan