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U.S. is losing its grip on Iraq and on oil (artigo)

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U.S. is losing its grip on Iraq and on oil (artigo)

por Info. » 9/4/2004 13:36

Master no more?
The U.S. is losing its grip on Iraq and on oil, writes Paul Erdman.

Master of the universe no more?
Commentary: U.S. is losing its grip on Iraq and on oil

By Paul Erdman, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET April 9, 2004

HEALDSBURG, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- One of the great geopolitical clichés of our times is that he who controls the supply, and thus also the price, of crude petroleum. is Master of the Universe.

The United States is no longer in control of a even half the amount of oil necessary to meet its daily energy needs from domestic sources and output levels here continue to decline.

But through our alliances with the other principal suppliers of crude to the world market, we have been able to keep the global supply of crude oil on a relative even keel with constantly rising demand. Until now this has ensured energy costs which are relatively low, relatively stable, and thus conducive to overall sustainable economic growth.

This has been true despite constant minor shifts in the makeup of the United States led oil alliance. The most serious fission among the ranks of the oil suppliers occurred when one of our chief partners, the Shah of Iran, was deposed in 1979, leading to a cutoff in the supply of oil from that country and a global energy/economic crisis.

What has remained constant it the key alliance with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as well as the other minor oil powers on the western shore of the Persian Gulf. Newly added to the ranks of our allies have been the emerging oil suppliers in Central Asia -- the most important being those on both sides of the Caspian Sea. Even Iran has now resumed its role as one of the world's largest supplier of crude.

The last great not-yet developed source of crude lies in the waters off of Nigeria. And, we were told, after things calmed down in Iraq, under our management even that country will soon be exporting 3.5 million barrels a day of crude into the world market, and that that will increase eventually to 5 million barrels per day.

What all of these regions have in common, however, is that they are all components of the World of Islam. Common to all these Islam nations is now also a growing disenchantment with America -- with its overall foreign policy objectives in general, and with it occupation of one of their own, Iraq, in particular. This has lead to an explosive growth in those fascist elements within the ranks of fundamentalist Islam whose principle goal is the humiliation of the last great Superpower which now wants to also become Master of their Universe.

Their response: Over our dead bodies! And so far, it seems to be working.

In an age asymmetric warfare, the world has suddenly discovered that being the world's only Superpower is meaningless. We are as vulnerable to suicide attacks as anyone else.

As the Spaniards found out, even their very close alliance with us seems to offer no protection from these new anarchistic forces; that in fact, being closely allied with us may be more of a liability than a benefit.

In reaching such a conclusion, can Saudi Arabia be far behind? Or even the rulers of Kuwait if the Shiites gain control of their Big Brother to the North, Why should the leader of Islamic Nigeria risk their political futures by counting on the protection of the United States?

To sum it up...in the eyes of a billion Moslems, Iraq is the place where it is becoming increasingly evident that the American emperor has no clothes.

As their respect of our power diminishes, so will their willingness to cooperate with us where the supply and price of oil is concerned. In the end, Iraq is going to catch up with all of us in terms of soaring energy costs in the years ahead.

If there are any winners that will emerge from all this, integrated oil companies, such Exxon (XOM: news, chart, profile) and Chevron (CVX: news, chart, profile), are sure to be among them. Ownership of their shares will provide you with the added benefit of a dividend yield that is higher than that you are currently getting from your money market fund.
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