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[Ulisses Pereira]

Aqui está ele:


Rev Shark
How to Regard the Voices of Doom and Gloom
3/30/04 11:52 AM ET



"If you are looking for a well-reasoned bearish argument for the market, here is an interesting article by Richard Russell, the longtime market prognosticator and publisher of Dow Theory Letters: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_0 ... 33104.html . After reading this very compelling article, you'll probably want to sell everything and start looking for a bunker in which to reside.

One consistent thing about the bearish arguments I have seen over the years is that they always sound very compelling. The writers are always logical, insightful and nearly impossible to refute. There are always big potential negatives out there that can send things crashing. Expecting the worst seems like a very smart thing to do.

On the other hand, the bulls usually come across as na?ve pollyannas who fail to grasp the intricacies of the financial system and geopolitical events. They shrug off the headlines and worrisome news and come up with simplistic arguments, such as, "The economy is improving, and individuals have no good alternative investment to the stock market."

Anyone with experience knows that if we expect the best, we are likely to be disappointed. The bulls' arguments just don't sound very bright when compared with grizzled wisdom of the bears.

So do we head the bearish advice and head for the hills? The biggest problem with most of the smart perma-bears is that their timing tends to be awful. There was a crowd of astute bears warning about the dangers of the bubble, and almost every one of them was way too early. If you listened to them and sold out, you would have missed some of the biggest gains in the last 50 years. Eventually you would have broken even on their advice, but it would have taken years before the market worked back to the point where they first made their bearish predictions. With many of them, you'd still be underwater.

Because of their inability to effectively time their dire predictions, the perma-bears have never made me any money. It is good to understand their arguments, and when the technical picture starts to back up their fundamental views, we need to act. However, wallowing in potential gloom and doom is extremely costly in the short term when the market is acting technically well. Read what the perma-bears have to offer, but until they learn to time the market better, you should think very hard before acting on their views.

The indices continue to hold well. We are just slightly in the green, but breadth is solid as the small-caps continue to attract buyers. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

[Incognitus]

Isto do Rev. Shark?

"How to Regard the Voices of Doom and Gloom"

Obrigado.