Cramer: "The Word of the Week: Volatility"
Enviado: 30/3/2004 14:53"The Word of the Week: Volatility"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
3/30/2004 8:24 AM EST
"Tough to get a read on the day. Have to believe that the marking up continues, given that today is a day where it's less likely that the feds will scrutinize the process. At the same time, though, I don't like that pattern of a big up, being flat and then another big up that we just had. I am glad, however, that the last hour of the big up wasn't straight up, something that would indicate short-sellers capitulating.
Seems like there's a little more on the line right now than I would like. We've got the quarter-end mark-up, which will be followed quickly by the employment number. For a year I have been saying that this number will be the first strong number, meaning 250,000 or more, and I am not going to back away from that prediction on the eve of the event. I do worry, though, that our moronic friends in the bond market aren't ready for such a number.
At the same time, though, a good number would be quite a relief for the now-beleaguered Bush administration, which has done its level best to implode over the last few months on both domestic and foreign policy. The fact that Bush seems beatable, something that stock market players won't like because it is hard to imagine a more pro-stock president -- "How about free stock for everyone?" -- could change on Friday.
Either way, we have to be ready for volatility. I thought, for example, the Citigroup (C:NYSE - commentary - research) upgrade Monday, and how well it was received, could be the ultimate false tell ahead of a strong employment number. I still want to steer clear of the BKX for a couple of days. To me, what's working is tech and the smokestacks and I'm going with that combo into Friday's trading with less trepidation than I would a portfolio of my two canaries, Anheuser-Busch (BUD:NYSE - commentary - research) and General Mills (GIS:NYSE - commentary - research) with Lennar (LEN:NYSE - commentary - research) and Citi. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
3/30/2004 8:24 AM EST
"Tough to get a read on the day. Have to believe that the marking up continues, given that today is a day where it's less likely that the feds will scrutinize the process. At the same time, though, I don't like that pattern of a big up, being flat and then another big up that we just had. I am glad, however, that the last hour of the big up wasn't straight up, something that would indicate short-sellers capitulating.
Seems like there's a little more on the line right now than I would like. We've got the quarter-end mark-up, which will be followed quickly by the employment number. For a year I have been saying that this number will be the first strong number, meaning 250,000 or more, and I am not going to back away from that prediction on the eve of the event. I do worry, though, that our moronic friends in the bond market aren't ready for such a number.
At the same time, though, a good number would be quite a relief for the now-beleaguered Bush administration, which has done its level best to implode over the last few months on both domestic and foreign policy. The fact that Bush seems beatable, something that stock market players won't like because it is hard to imagine a more pro-stock president -- "How about free stock for everyone?" -- could change on Friday.
Either way, we have to be ready for volatility. I thought, for example, the Citigroup (C:NYSE - commentary - research) upgrade Monday, and how well it was received, could be the ultimate false tell ahead of a strong employment number. I still want to steer clear of the BKX for a couple of days. To me, what's working is tech and the smokestacks and I'm going with that combo into Friday's trading with less trepidation than I would a portfolio of my two canaries, Anheuser-Busch (BUD:NYSE - commentary - research) and General Mills (GIS:NYSE - commentary - research) with Lennar (LEN:NYSE - commentary - research) and Citi. "
(in www.realmoney.com)