"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[Emanuel Santos]

"Standard & Poor's proprietary measure that's the most oversold in a year"

Esta tambem era difícil de ver, ainda não tinha havido uma correcção de jeito, como poderia ser de outra forma ?!

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Market Gives Three Big Buy Signals"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
3/24/2004 9:20 AM EST


"Dramatic drop in the number of bulls in the Investors Intelligence survey, a huge decline. Large put-buying, bigger than I have seen in a year. An oscillator reading on Standard & Poor's proprietary measure that's the most oversold in a year. Multiples that have come down to the point where United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - commentary - research), General Electric (GE:NYSE - commentary - research) and Pfizer (PFE:NYSE - commentary - research) are the cheapest that anyone's seen in years.

If I didn't know any better, I would be margining at my hedge fund, I would be buying call protection to the upside, layering on the insurance against a big run.


One other thing: No one wants to hear it. Too much money has been lost. Too many people are "so underwater," as my emailers indicate, that anyone putting that schematic of oversold/bears preponderance/cheap multiples comes out looking like another "buy the dips"-meister who is totally discredited.

Why are these readings so important? Because when we got to 45 billion/minus 5 on the oscillator and had low multiples with lots of put-buying, particularly on the QQQs (QQQ:Amex - commentary - research) and the SOX during the great bear market of 2000-2003, you had to cover your shorts and go long -- every time. These were the same readings, minus the VIX, that caused short-covering rallies. So let's just say you were a total Kodiak and you thought that Hamas was preparing a joint strike operation in your neighborhood (welcome to Israel!). You still would cover your shorts right here.

I, too, am wary of bottom-callers. Some of you think that I am one, even as I have stuck 100% by my thesis that a third of the stocks have gotten to where they have to go -- particularly the dividend-yielders -- another third are trying to bottom and a final third are strictly in transit ... down.

But let's at least acknowledge that these indicators worked in the previous bear market. They should work now, even though I don't think we are in one. "

(in www.realmoney.com)