IAG e Air France reiteram interesse na TAP. Lufthansa em silêncio

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Obrigado Ulisses.

[Ulisses Pereira]

Posso, Bruno. Só que não consigo ver os gráficos pois a minha Netcabo anda com alguns problemas. Como tal, só consigo colocar o texto.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

"We're Getting Closer to a Low"

By Helene Meisler
Special to RealMoney.com
3/17/2004 9:30 AM EST

It's expiration week, and as you know, anything can happen.

However, this is the first time since last May that the put/call ratio has had readings above 1.0 for four consecutive days.

If you want to point to even more negativity, note that this indicator had two days of readings in the 0.90s before the past four days. That's why the put/call ratio moving averages have begun soaring.

As I said Tuesday, the 10-day moving average of the put/call ratio can still move higher for about three more days (which leads us into expiration) before it peaks.

However, peaks in this indicator are more typically associated with market lows, not highs.



The past four days have not all been down; we've had one up, one down, one up and one down. Last Thursday's close on the Nasdaq was 1943, the same as Tuesday's close. So we've gone nowhere, yet folks have gotten more bearish as we've churned at the lows. The same is true for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 as well.

The oscillator is not yet maximum oversold. The 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line could also use some time to get to a maximum oversold reading (next Friday). The key here is that both are heading toward oversold.





In addition, the 200-day moving averages of the major indices are rising, and we're getting quite close to them, especially on the Nasdaq. (See Tuesday's column for more details about this indicator.)

Finally, the advance/decline line did something different Tuesday. At 3 p.m., when the market was trading at its lows, the New York Stock Exchange's A/D was roughly 1750-1450. It closed with a reading of 1900-1350, not much of a change considering the late afternoon rally. However, the Nasdaq's A/D at 3 p.m. was 1170-1900 and closed at 1500-1600, making quite a comeback. Also on the Nasdaq, advancing volume beat declining volume by a pretty good margin.

I didn't like the fact that the number of new lows picked up and that new highs still lag behind them by a wide margin. The market is oversold now, and if it comes down more this week, it will be maximum oversold by the end of trading Friday. If that happens, then we'd likely be at that long-term moving-average line, which would take the put/call ratio to even more of an extreme.

Therefore, we're much closer to a trading low than we were last week, when everyone proclaimed we had seen the low. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

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de Helene Meisler no Realmoney.

Obrigado
Bruno