Mohan 09/03/04

Today's Market Force: Neutral to bullish. Look for early prices to push higher and hold gains. On a lower opening and early drop we will look to be on the buy side.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, March 8, 2004:
1) Buy at 1155.75/ Sell at 1157.75 for +2.00 pts. (Buy BreakDown Hour One pivot...reverse on TB formation higher)
2) 11:24est Sell 1157.75/ Cover 1155.75 +2.00 pts. (up to +7 pts. if you held short longer. (TB 3rd level up sell...cover for 2pts.)
* We covered the TB short a bit early on support coming in at 1155.00. Market lost 1155.00 and cascaded to the 1149-50 area later in the session only to erode further into the close. We had called for the lower action but other signals were coming in showing support. That's the markets.
TOTAL: +4 PTS.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's action.
The ranges are opening up some and starting to show more consistent volatility which is great. Let's hope it keeps up and we can gradually gain more confidence in holding out for larger points on the TCF trade setups.
Our Headline Call panned out exactly as we had planned with the early push higher that fizzled out later in the session.
There was the buy signal at the BreakDown without the presence of a true Bear Ugly market but we saw this manifest later in the session in a "sneak down" fashion which if you recall is what we were looking for on Friday.
So we took the buy signal at the 1155.75 B/D and rode it up looking for the 1160.00 BreakOut to get hit. Instead we saw a TB formation combined with several of our proprietary indicators and the Bearish High Five give us sell signals just above 1157.00.
The market pulled back very slowly off of the 1157-58 area and then pushed back up in a small, tight range.
Although there was a case for holding out for lower prices, with the price action, contrary indicators coming in and support at 1155.00 we opted to cover up the short.
Later the market started dropping in line with our Headline Call but we did not look to reenter a short trade as there were no reversals giving us clear signals for that. Trailblazer trend line was down and after stalling at the 1148-51 area the market continued to drift lower into the close.
On balance a nice +4pts. day without any serious heat on any of our stops. Too bad we missed the later pullback but that is just the way the mop flops in S&P500 trading once in a while.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are looking for the market to generally hold up today after some early gains and become more or less a choppy affair.
This should pan out good for intraday trading off of clear Trailblazer signals but we will need to see how the overall market looks after the opening and the first hour.
We have re-entered the Sell Mode now we expect but would need to see the market push below AND HOLD BELOW 1142-43 zone.
Next ultimate short term goal lower is 1115.00. Here are the support points heading lower: 1142, 1140.50,1138.00,1133.00,1127-29.00, and big support at 1123.00. Below 23 is a gap zone that would clear the path to the goal of 1115.00 which would fufill a major goal lower.
This number (1115.00) is subject to change at anytime but the above numbers are good for a push lower along the way.
If we hold above 1143 and then hold above the Pit Bull (today at 1148.00) then we are going to continue this arm wrestling match between 1143-57.00 in the Twilite Zone of numbers.
The key today will be to see if we get a lower opening and early move lower in which to be BUYERS.
Buy Pivot target is a good candidate to look to go long if we get hammered that lower EARLY. However, we do not want to Sell the Sell Pivot target but watch instead for the Hour One BreakOut to use to get short on a rally.
Value Area: 1,149.60 - 1,160.00
Wide Value Area today suggests range trading in this zone if we get the expected push higher in the early session.
Trade below 1150 and especially below 1143 is bearish for the decending numbers shown above to come into play.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,138.25 - 1,139.25
Look to Buy at this buy pivot target with a Trailblazer formation in this zone.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,155.00 - 1,154.00
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch the BreakOut for clues to compare with this number to go short.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,148.00
This will provide resistance today... but how much?
We need to watch this price today which is just below the bottom of the VA for signs of continued weakness.
Right now there are too many bears jumping on the lower price drops. That means we will most likely continue to hold up in this "Twilite Zone" of 1143-57.00 waiting for a resolution.
The more bullish news on TV and seeing the traders get bullish will be an aid to the lower prices shown on the decending move lower. Not until then however.
Pro Trader's Action
Today will most likely push higher and our best shot will be in getting long if we get the BreakDown first of the Hour One pivots.
Otherwise a choppy trading day is in the cards and we can just pick off 2-3 points from the TB setups.
Watch the High Five for clues as to the market directional bias and be prepared to stand aside if nothing clear is coming into focus.
Stay centered and remember that real Trading is 100% psychological. Once you have established a proven methodology the key is to be able to develop the psychology to trade it everyday.
Good luck today, watch for the signs and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Economic Calendar
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, March 8, 2004:
1) Buy at 1155.75/ Sell at 1157.75 for +2.00 pts. (Buy BreakDown Hour One pivot...reverse on TB formation higher)
2) 11:24est Sell 1157.75/ Cover 1155.75 +2.00 pts. (up to +7 pts. if you held short longer. (TB 3rd level up sell...cover for 2pts.)
* We covered the TB short a bit early on support coming in at 1155.00. Market lost 1155.00 and cascaded to the 1149-50 area later in the session only to erode further into the close. We had called for the lower action but other signals were coming in showing support. That's the markets.
TOTAL: +4 PTS.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's action.
The ranges are opening up some and starting to show more consistent volatility which is great. Let's hope it keeps up and we can gradually gain more confidence in holding out for larger points on the TCF trade setups.
Our Headline Call panned out exactly as we had planned with the early push higher that fizzled out later in the session.
There was the buy signal at the BreakDown without the presence of a true Bear Ugly market but we saw this manifest later in the session in a "sneak down" fashion which if you recall is what we were looking for on Friday.
So we took the buy signal at the 1155.75 B/D and rode it up looking for the 1160.00 BreakOut to get hit. Instead we saw a TB formation combined with several of our proprietary indicators and the Bearish High Five give us sell signals just above 1157.00.
The market pulled back very slowly off of the 1157-58 area and then pushed back up in a small, tight range.
Although there was a case for holding out for lower prices, with the price action, contrary indicators coming in and support at 1155.00 we opted to cover up the short.
Later the market started dropping in line with our Headline Call but we did not look to reenter a short trade as there were no reversals giving us clear signals for that. Trailblazer trend line was down and after stalling at the 1148-51 area the market continued to drift lower into the close.
On balance a nice +4pts. day without any serious heat on any of our stops. Too bad we missed the later pullback but that is just the way the mop flops in S&P500 trading once in a while.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are looking for the market to generally hold up today after some early gains and become more or less a choppy affair.
This should pan out good for intraday trading off of clear Trailblazer signals but we will need to see how the overall market looks after the opening and the first hour.
We have re-entered the Sell Mode now we expect but would need to see the market push below AND HOLD BELOW 1142-43 zone.
Next ultimate short term goal lower is 1115.00. Here are the support points heading lower: 1142, 1140.50,1138.00,1133.00,1127-29.00, and big support at 1123.00. Below 23 is a gap zone that would clear the path to the goal of 1115.00 which would fufill a major goal lower.
This number (1115.00) is subject to change at anytime but the above numbers are good for a push lower along the way.
If we hold above 1143 and then hold above the Pit Bull (today at 1148.00) then we are going to continue this arm wrestling match between 1143-57.00 in the Twilite Zone of numbers.
The key today will be to see if we get a lower opening and early move lower in which to be BUYERS.
Buy Pivot target is a good candidate to look to go long if we get hammered that lower EARLY. However, we do not want to Sell the Sell Pivot target but watch instead for the Hour One BreakOut to use to get short on a rally.
Value Area: 1,149.60 - 1,160.00
Wide Value Area today suggests range trading in this zone if we get the expected push higher in the early session.
Trade below 1150 and especially below 1143 is bearish for the decending numbers shown above to come into play.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,138.25 - 1,139.25
Look to Buy at this buy pivot target with a Trailblazer formation in this zone.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,155.00 - 1,154.00
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch the BreakOut for clues to compare with this number to go short.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,148.00
This will provide resistance today... but how much?
We need to watch this price today which is just below the bottom of the VA for signs of continued weakness.
Right now there are too many bears jumping on the lower price drops. That means we will most likely continue to hold up in this "Twilite Zone" of 1143-57.00 waiting for a resolution.
The more bullish news on TV and seeing the traders get bullish will be an aid to the lower prices shown on the decending move lower. Not until then however.
Pro Trader's Action
Today will most likely push higher and our best shot will be in getting long if we get the BreakDown first of the Hour One pivots.
Otherwise a choppy trading day is in the cards and we can just pick off 2-3 points from the TB setups.
Watch the High Five for clues as to the market directional bias and be prepared to stand aside if nothing clear is coming into focus.
Stay centered and remember that real Trading is 100% psychological. Once you have established a proven methodology the key is to be able to develop the psychology to trade it everyday.
Good luck today, watch for the signs and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Economic Calendar