Petróleo entre tensões geopolíticas e oferta excessiva. O que pesará mais?

[Dwer]

Market Force Today: Bearish on rallies. Look for another up move today that will pull back later in the session.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, March 5, 2004:
1) Sell 1150.50/ Cover on spike move higer for up to -6 pts. loss. (reflex rally off gap lower open short for strong pullback)

2) Sell 1160-62.00/ Cover for up to +6-8 pts. (Trailblazer 3rd level up to BreakOut +2-4 pts.)

3) 11:19est Buy 1153/ Sell for +2-6 pts on fast move up (Trailblazer 3rd level lower Buy)

TOTAL: Up to +6 pts.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Monday's action.

On Friday the market gapped open strongly lower about 6 handles with the High Five going Bear Ugly.

There was no surprisingly bad news occuring at the time of the drop but our initial feeling was for lower prices in a "Sneak Down" Bear Ugly type day.

We had looked to trade the reflex bounce off the gap lower opening to go short but prices kept rising and on the 10:02-03 est Candle we got stopped out.

Next trade setup was another short attempt above the Hour One BreakOut at 1159.50 with a spike up coming about 5 minutes after the first hour had transipred.

Any short above 1160.00 panned out nicely and if you were fortunate you got short into that spike up and got 1161-62 as a short entry. The pullback was nice and quick with a +10 point move occuring in less than an hour.

If you caught 5-10 points off that short you did good.

The 11:19est candle formed a 3rd level lower Trailblazer move and buying there at around 1153.00 would have given you a move up as much as +6 pts in just over an hour.

Today's Call & Briefing:
The Market Force for today continues to be Bearish on rallies. We want to let any rally play out some today as there is sufficient strength left as a carry over from Friday's picking up prices off the lows.

The move lower on Friday after the early rally off the large gap lower opening created an excessive amount of Bearish traders which we expect will get cleaned out either off the opening prices or later in the morning session as prices move higher.

If we see the prices move lower off the open and run lower FIRST then this will only feed the excessive Bearish pessimism and fuel a further upside move.

However, as mentioned in the Headline Call, we would expect to see any later day rallies fizzle out as we go into the close.

Watch for: Bullish BreakOut Buy IF we hit the BreakOut as the First Hour One pivot.

If we open lower and run lower FIRST then we are going to look to be buyers on the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One pivot hit.

The Buy/Sell pivots today will be used as comparison numbers with the Hour One pivots. Good luck in your trading today.

Value Area: 1,153.40 - 1,161.80
Since about 6 sessions ago we have been in an aberration on the Sell Mode with prices trading above 1142-43 and this has produced this rally we have seen.

We are now entering a phase where that aberration is tiring out some and we should begin to see a solid resumption to the downside again.

This value area will give us strong clues particularly today as we will note prices first holding in the Value area and then looking to see if they can hold below 1153.00 later in the session when we expect any rallies to fizzle out.

That would be an important clue to indicate that the aberration is wearing thin and we would then begin to look for prices to press back towards the 1143.00 current strong support area.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,149.25 - 1,150.25
No Trade at this pivot today but watch this important support area to coincide with the Hour One BreakDown.

We would look for a trade opportunity in that zone.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,164.75 - 1,163.75
No trade at this Sell Pivot today. We would expect to see prices rise above this area if our rally scenario pans out but then above this area the test of failure would come.

If we hit the BREAKOUT FIRST and the High Five are in a strong bullish mode then we could see a significant final blowoff to the upside and we would look to be buyers on that BreakOut with the idea of catching the later top and pullback.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,147.70
As long as we are holding above this zone then we need to stay on the "Buy Drops" side.

We are continuing to sell rallies on days where we push above the opening price and move higher but this is just for reaction trades off the rallies.

We are still bullish above this Pit Bull 10 day moving average zone.

Pro Trader's Action
This should be an exciting week for trading as the ranges open up some and the trading volatility increases. We are starting to see regular moves of 6-8 points beyond the Hour One pivots by 2-4 points and this is encouraging compared to where we were going with the tight ranges in Janurary and Feburary. Yikes.

With the very timely introduction of the Trailblazer TCF setup in the midst of the market changes we were able to give you additional cutting edge trading tools to fine tune your entries and exits.

Now we are ready to tackle the year so let's just hope the ranges and volatility keep expanding.

Have fun today and best of success with your trading. I'll see you in the action. Mohan