CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Market Force: Bearish
Market to push a bit higher early today but continue to stay on the sell side for lower prices. CAUTION: If market drops lower in first hour of session we would expect prices to find support and close in middle of days range.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, February 27, 2004:
Sell 1147.00/ Cover for up to +7 pts.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us.

The ranges are coming back some and we are seeing more volatility off the TCF pivots which is promising news.

A little more patience and observation will give us more proof of where the market action will take a stand.

We have Super Tuesday coming up this week with the election campaign getting ready to move into full swing and ideally this will assist with the volatility.

We had mentioned in the Headline Call about 1151.00 being a strong area of resistance and we saw the Sell Pivot target in the 1147.00 area so we are reporting the short trade from this zone. Some of you may have got in higher than the sell pivot while others of you held on from the exact Sell Pivot target area.

We saw the BreakOut just barely missed which added to the sell confirmation.

A lower swing down to the Buy Pivot target area exactly brought the prices rallying up again to test the 1149-50 area only to close lower in the 1144-45 zone. Now we are seeing some action!

Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we want to continue to focus on the Sell Side of the market as the symptoms are there for a lower squash off any HIGHER OPENING and early rally.

We have bullish volume getting overcooked with prices hovering below previous highs in the market and this is usually a bearish sign.

We are seeing a decent chance of one more rally here on the early session of today to see the week start off positive only to fizzle out later in the day.

We will be carefully be watching the High Five today looking for signs of the NAZ showing weakness in the midst of a Dow rally.

Look to stay on the sell side if the NAZ is NOT showing strong readings of +15 or more along with the TRIN moving above 1.00 and VXO higher.

As long as we see these neutral type High Five readings with the Advance/Decline line holding steadly lower then we will be able to confirm internal weakness of the market in line with our Headline Call for Bearish Market Force.

We still have not fully delineated the Crossover to an Aberration on the underlying Sell Mode we are in as prices continue to hover in the 1142-44 area and keep selling off of the upper 1151.00 goal higher.

Today will provide valuable clues as to whether we can move lower and see the 1151 area as a temporary new high.

Value Area: 1,144.00 - 1,149.20
Top of the VA along with the 1151 area should continue to provide resistance unless we get that strong High Five, A REAL Dow Rally backed with NAZ being up over +15 or more and lower TRIN.

Otherwise, this top of the VA should give us further clues to erosion.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,139.50 - 1,140.50
No Trade at this pivot but watch for prices to punch below this area and take out the -4.25 stop/pivot on a bearish move lower at 1135.25.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,150.75 - 1,149.75
If we get a higher opening and an early morning rally WITH A TRAILBLAZER FORMATION 3RD LEVEL UP then we can look to sell such a formation at this price or higher.

Usually we do not like to sell early in the day on Monday so if we get such a formation then look to be ready to take profits as prices may hang up near the highs some and we don't want to get caught sitting in a trade.

You may consider comparing this price to the BreakOut and getting short in that area on a TB formation. The way the volatility was on Friday we may be able to start taking these trades and getting the swings easier now.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,145.40
Trade holding Below the Pit Bull is Bearish and we are closing practically right on it. We have this whole zone now of 1142-46 serving as a huge "Line in the Sand".

The market should make a decision soon and our indicators favor the Sell Side so far.

Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if we can get the right set up to hold out for a sell off today of 6 points or more off the early action.

Be very patient to wait for the clear TB setups to enter these trades to get a more accurate entry and be willing to get out if you don't see a decent reaction shortly after the short trade.

With Monday being the most bullish day of the week we want to be on alert to see if prices "hang up" near the highs for a while before selling off later in the session.

Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action.

Mohan

se possível podias colocar o newsletter de ontem,.. para ver que dizia ele... é que na de hoje refere-se 1 par de vezes ao que se tinha dito ontem.

tks

Market Force today: Bearish on rallies. More upside to go but we want to sell rallies today for pullbacks off the highs. Lower opening and early drop should promote more upside action.

Trade Setup Summary for Monday, March 1, 2004:
* First Hour One pivot hit was the BreakDown which was hit with a small Trailblazer formation. Although that turned out to be a great trade we did not take it but worked the sell side with tight stops.

1) Sell 1152.75/ Cover for up to -3.50 loss (Sell BreakOut)

2) Sell 1157.00/ Cover at 1155.50 for +1.50 (later session TB 3rd level sell)

TOTAL: -2.00 pts.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us.

Monday was a challenging day for us to interpret due to a lot of cross signals in the Market Force.

We were Bearish on rallies as our Market Force calculations and the action on Friday were suggesting that lower prices would continue.

Following strictly our suggestion that closes above 1142-43 with Friday's 1144.60 close however would have suggested the very possible start of an aberration on the Sell Mode from that level and a return to higher highs for this current period.

This is what occured on Monday. We had traded with the idea of seeing prices pullback but with the appearance of a very strong High Five after our trade entry short we kept the stops tight and didn't get hurt.

It was unfortunate to miss buying the BreakDown as that turned out to be an almost perfect Buy Trade covering the entire days trading range from 1146.70 low to the 1157.50 10 point trading range.

These larger scale, outside the range moves are often what occurs when the market makes it's choice on which side of the fence to jump on.

So making the two short trades we had a small loss initially and then picking up 1.50 of that back from the later day TB sell near the highs.

Today's Call & Briefing:
The "weather pattern" for the market (as I like to call it) has changed somewhat on Monday with the closing near the highs of the day. Had we rallied and then fallen back towards the lower third of the range on the close this would have prompted us to be decisively more bearish on the short term.

As it stands now we will still want to be selling rallies to make our money on the pullback reactions from those highs but will now be looking more towards buying drops on early, strong pullbacks for a continued move up.

If this aberration on the Sell Mode continues, as we think it may, we would have our next goal up as being the 1179-80 area with some strong, positive news coming into the markets which would assist the rallies.

We will still be at somewhat of a Crossroads junction IF WE PULLBACK AND HOLD BELOW THE 1151.00 LEVEL. If that occurs then we could continue to Flip Flop between 1151.00 and 1142/43.00 looking for direction as traders and the public remain unconvinced of the Election market direction heading into the year.

Recommended for today: Watch for the BreakOut to be the first Hour One pivot and be prepared to Sell the BreakOut with a rally above it with a Trailblazer formation. That should provide a decent short trade we can make some money on if it all sets up right.

Value Area: 1,147.00 - 1,154.50
Although we had a strong move on Monday be prepared to watch the market fall back into this Value Area and pull back to test 1151.00 area.

Holding above 1151.00 should see a gradual move higher with projections up to 1179.00 on an aberration on the current Sell Mode we are in.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,149.00 - 1,150.00
No Trade at this target today as we will be more inclined to sell an early rally that occurs above the BreakOut.

This price area to buy is a bit too close to the closing price for comfort to recommend a strait buy trade at this price.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,159.75 - 1,158.75
No Trade at this Sell Pivot today but keep an eye on 1164.00 (+4.25) as an upward resistance target.

We would be more inclined to sell up in that area (1164) if we saw a Trailblazer formation up there on an attempted rally and BreakOut.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,146.40
We have moved solidly above the Pit Bull but we are still closing within the 10 point CROSSOVER range.

What that means is we still have to be cautious of pullbacks that would challenge this price area. This could occur today and we would expect prices to stall here if we move to this level.

Pro Trader's Action
Monday's market was a bit tricky to read. We had the bullish Monday pattern, the market had closed just above the 1142-43 price area we have been talking about as the level to create an aberration on the Sell Mode (causing higher prices) yet Friday's erratic behavior suggested continued pressure to the downside.

Today we are going to be looking for early rallies to pullback from the highs which should give us a good short trade if we get the correct setup with the Trailblazer pattern we would look for to accomplish this.

Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action.

Mohan