CIP quer preço definido na “compra de férias”

[Dwer]

Market Force: still bullish on drops. However, we are expecting one more down day today before a rally kicks in.

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, February 24, 2004:
1) 10:47est Sell 1143.50/Cover 1141.00 +2.50 (3rd level up TB which corresponded to Selling above B/O...held longer could have made up to +10 points. The return of the prior TCF setups? Maybe soon...hope so. TB's are scalps though for 2-3 pts in these ranges.

2)11:28est Buy 1141.00/Sell at scratch/breakeven (3rd level down TB)

3) 2:27est Buy 1136.50/ Sell 1134.50 -2.00 pts. (3rd level buy....get out and buy next level lower)

4) 2:39est Buy 1134.00/ Sell 1138.00 +4.00 pts. (Buy next level after stopped out on 3rd level buy shown in #3... Nice rally off the lows back above the opening price.

TOTAL: UP TO +4.50

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

We had some great double sided trading action again on Tuesday as the market dropped earlier and the Buy Market Force kicked in.

With the Sell Mode in force though under the 1142-43.00 price level they collapsed back lower to test the early 1134.00 low. Then, again a bounce as the buyers came in supporting the market.

You can see how we are in a tug of war at a "line in the sand" that I mentioned yesterday. The underlying Sell Market Force just can't get going yet we can't get the solid aberration on the Sell Force above 1142-43 to cause a rally.

HOWEVER, THAT IS COMING SOON. We are expecting one more weak day today and then they should start taking off to the upside again once the Bears get fully entrenched. The way things are setting up in the market right now we have committed bears betting on "the big collapse" but they need to be really entrenched and convinced of the downside move they think is coming.

This should occur with some kind of WASHOUT LOW today that really locks the Bears in. Then we will see the reversal upside probably on Thursday.

The Trailblazer was carving up some nice trade signals again today as listed above along with the times (shown in EST). Go to your one minute candle charts with the 9/18 SMA's and you will see the exact Trailblazer setups as we have described on our site and in the Ask Mohan section.

Right now this is still the best way to capture profits during these trading times. These trades are less painful than our previous method of holding long or short from the selected TCF Hour One or Buy/Sell Pivots with the 5-6 point stops.

On the Trailblazer trades we are looking for an almost immediate reaction upon correct entry. If no favorable reaction be ready to get out. As shown in Trade #3 what you have to do is get out with a small loss and then look to re-enter same side at the next Trailblazer level.

You can see the result was making back the loss and adding 2 more points. The Trailblazer TCF setup is totally unique in that it trades both sides of the volatility and also tends to measure the markets range for profit.

It appears that the Hour One and Buy/Sell Pivots are coming back into play more as evidenced from today's early drop to the Buy Pivot and the reaction lower off the Hour One BreakOut. The difficulty is that there were not clear corresponding High Five setups to go along with these and that always increases the risk on these setups.

There is a strong chance that we will NEVER see these setups come back to how they originally used to pan out like in 2003. The internal structure of the market has changed considerably and the High Five readings are reacting differently.

I am preparing an entire RE-TOOL of the 21st Century Futures trading methodology to reflect all of this and will be working on it after my seminar coming up this week.

Those who are able to attend will have a sneak preview of some of the methods I will be using to adjust to the new market environment we are in.

This is the nature of the markets and particularly the S&P500. I had talked about this about 2 weeks ago in referring to trading methodologies. As Real S&P500 traders we have to be willing to constantly go back to the drawing board and be doing what is RELEVANT in the markets RIGHT NOW.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today I am expecting one more lower move to create a sort of "washout low" that will get the bears nice and gleeful...and short.

That will setup the launch of higher prices that should carry us back above the 1143.00 area up to test 1151.00 to start.

If things pan out today as expected we will get that washout lower move today and, like Tuesday's action, a buy force bounce off those lows.

So look for double sided trading again today.

Bottom line: Would be to look for BreakDown lows to get squashed out a bit lower and then brought back above the BreakDown trying to cross over the OPENING PRICE and perhaps failing. This would keep the bears convinced of prices going lower.

There is an outside chance we could have seen the bottoming action yesterday in the 1133.00 area and they will take off from the BreakOut today IF THAT IS THE FIRST HOUR ONE PIVOT HIT. Not expected today but giving you an advanced warning to watch for this if that B/O Hour One pivot is hit FIRST.

Value Area: 1,135.00 - 1,140.60
This tight VA range symbolizes the actual trading zone most of Tuesday. They had popped em up a bit higher earlier to test that 1142-43 but holding below the B/O at 1140.25 was the main action of the day.

This area should be significant today if we get a further washout low as expected. If so we would watch for prices to rise back up into this VA as a bullish sign if the washout takes prices below 1130.00

Buy Pivot Target: 1,133.25 - 1,134.25
No Trade at this pivot but compare this with the Hour One BreakDown and the -4.25 stop/pivot of 1129.00 which would put us right below 1130.00

Will be very intersting to see if they can get em in the 20's today and then bounce. Our original first level goal lower you may recall for the Sell Mode is 1121.00.

That is still in the cards if they really get hammered soon. The way the Market Force indicators are reading though is for a JUMP UP IN PRICES very soon off the next washout lows.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,144.00 - 1,143.00
No Trade at this pivot but again watch and compare this number to the Hour One BreakOut and see if we get into this zone for strong resistance upside.

We have to continue to be willing to sell rallies up to this area or higher to the Pit Bull in the 1147.00 area until we get this lower washout in prices.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,147.30
Monday was a great example of seeing prices fail here at the 1147.00 area and Tuesday they failed lower at 1144.00 so we need to watch this zone for entering sell orders.

Look for Trailblazer formations on a 3rd level up move into this area to short and hold short for more points than normal.

Ideally we would look for this on a higher opening. If the market hits some washout lows and then comes back up to this prices in a gradual climb then that is more of a bullish sign.

Pro Trader's Action
I am very excited this week about meeting those of you who are attending my seminar and will look forward to the weekend and our live trading sessions.

Many of you I know from the hundreds of emails I get are becoming accustomed to the Trailblazer setups.

Keep in mind that these are PROFESSIONAL FLOOR TRADING METHODS and definitely NOT for beginners. It takes time and experience to learn to properly scalp the markets...not just book learning but real live trading experience, and years of it.

I am confident of the Hour One and Buy/Sell Pivots as price points for entering trades and as mentioned soon I will be showing you additional methods of trading off of those that are different from the TCF Handbook.

For now you want to be looking for those price points to trade on the side of a clear High Five setup along with the predominant Market Force that I show in the Headline Call. That is the safest way to trade those pivots right now.

Unfortunately, they are not setting up as clearly as they have in 2003 and so you need to look to get slightly better prices if you can to tighten the stops (don't want to risk 6 point stops in these small ranges).

With a good entry and seeing the trade move in your favor you then want to consider taking 3-4-5 points on the setup as explained in the UPDATE SECTION of the TCF Trading Handbook. That will coincide more with the current 10 Day average range (which is currently 11.00).

So ranges are opening up some, volatility is increasing a bit and we are hopefully getting out of these tight ranges gradually.

Good luck in your trading today and let's see how today's call pans out. I'll be there in the action with you scaping as many 100$ bills off the floor as we can (or 200$, 300$ or 500$ or whatever your size).

Try to have some fun while doing this. Makes for a better career and day. Mohan