Fed mantém juros pela quarta reunião consecutiva. Continua a ver dois cortes este ano

[analista]

Real estate has a fairly consistent 18-20 year cycle. In fact, I first became interested in trading about 20 years ago when I was involved in real estate sales and fix-up properties. I used to visit the U of A library to read all of the back issues of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles journal going back to the early 50’s. I read about the real estate cycle in a late 70’s journal that projected a top in real estate construction for 1980 (which closely coincides with a top in prices). If you remember the early 80’s, that was definitely a peak in prices for several years in most areas of the country.

We are now about 20 years from the early 80’s peak and it is time for another peak in real estate, right on schedule. Consider a few facts.

Housing prices have been rising faster than incomes, a trend that can’t be sustained.
Housing payments as a percentage of disposable income are at historically high levels. A modest decline in income for many families will make it difficult if not impossible to service the mortgage debt.
More than 50% of all mortgages in 1999 had down payments of 10% or less compared to just 7% in 1989. A modest decline in housing prices will wipe out the equity of many relatively new homeowners.
Twenty years ago, annual consumer-debt payments including mortgages, credit cards and other debt payments was about 60% of income. By the fourth quarter of 2001, payments due for many were more than 100%. Someone is not getting paid. A trend that can’t persist before foreclosure or bankruptcy for many.
These and many more are the signs of a bubble real estate market. At the least, the upside should be very limited for the next several years. In some areas of the country, such as most larger metropolitan and coast cities, prices are at the most extreme relative to income and ability to pay. These areas are the most likely to experience a significant decline in value during the next wave of the bearish economy projected for next year when the stock market drives to a new low.

If you think you may need to sell in the near future, now is the time to serious considering doing it.

If you don’t have an immediate need to buy, consider waiting. In a few years, there should be some steal deals in housing and commercial property as well.