Mohan 20/02/04
Enviado: 20/2/2004 11:01No Headline Call today due to options expiration.
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, February 19, 2004:
1) (10:20est) Buy 1054.00/ Sell 1056.00 +2 pts. (TB-3rd level down)
2)(11:43est) Sell 1156.50/Cover 1154.50 +2pts. (TB-3rd level up)
3) (1:26-27est) Buy 1154.00/Sell 1156.50 +2.50 (TB- 3rd level down)
Total: Up to +6.50 pts.
* Note 2nd trade was coordinated with the Sell Pivot Target.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us for this brief update for Friday's Option Expiration.
As most of you know, we do not offer a Headline Call on Option Expiration days and therefore do not recommend any trades.
The market is starting to show more resiliance and more fluidity in the trading action. This is a good sign and ideally a return soon to better ranges and volatility.
Our Headline Call for a Bearish but Neutral Market Force looking for some early strength before the later weakness played out according to script. The overall bias is still bearish as we watch for the aberration to wrap up on the Sell Mode which caused the rise over the last 6-7 sessions. As mentioned on Thursday's briefing, this has not been a strong contrary aberration as we have not seen the market really take off to the upside.
Now, as far as resiliance, I am not referring to Thursdays's "AirBall" or Airpocket (as they are known on the floor) which occured at 3:30est. That is not real volatility but actually the lack of liquidity. My contacts on the floor told me that a large order came in at that time to an empty S&P500 pit and no one to trade against the short so the market hit an Airpocket and got slammed instantly from around 1153-4 down to 1148.00 (yesterdays' low) before finding some support.
Anyway, those of you who were holding short from a previous trade at the Sell Pivot target area got lucky and saw some fast cash appear. Most had scalped some points off the earlier highs near the Sell Pivot Target (me included) before that last half hour squash.
Other than that it was a nice day of quick scalps off Trailblazer setups and accumulating points and trying to keep the stops tight.
Abrieviated commentary so have a nice weekend and we'll catch up on Monday.
Today's Call & Briefing:
No Headline Call and No briefing today due to options expiration. We are standing aside in any trade action today.
Value Area: 1,153.80 - 1,157.20
Watch for resistance now at the bottom of the Value area and see if they can hold in Value or continue lower. Trade below this zone is bearish.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,142.50 - 1,143.50
No Trade at this pivot today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,155.25 - 1,154.25
No Trade at this pivot today.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,145.60
We are closing in on the Pit Bull. Get ready for a Crossover to the downside OR grand support to come in as they push higher again from here.
We will have to see how the expiration treats this level and then we can have a more clear idea. Trade that blows through this number to the downside but then backs up and returns to stall at this zone is probably a bullish sign.
Pro Trader's Action
Use today to observe the markets reaction to that Airball yesterday in the Pit and see if those numbers stick as Value in the market. If the balance of prices is lower then we are fully resuming the Sell Mode below 1142-43 as discussed recently here in these briefings.
Have a nice relaxing weekend and will look forward to updating you on Monday.
All the best, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, February 19, 2004:
1) (10:20est) Buy 1054.00/ Sell 1056.00 +2 pts. (TB-3rd level down)
2)(11:43est) Sell 1156.50/Cover 1154.50 +2pts. (TB-3rd level up)
3) (1:26-27est) Buy 1154.00/Sell 1156.50 +2.50 (TB- 3rd level down)
Total: Up to +6.50 pts.
* Note 2nd trade was coordinated with the Sell Pivot Target.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us for this brief update for Friday's Option Expiration.
As most of you know, we do not offer a Headline Call on Option Expiration days and therefore do not recommend any trades.
The market is starting to show more resiliance and more fluidity in the trading action. This is a good sign and ideally a return soon to better ranges and volatility.
Our Headline Call for a Bearish but Neutral Market Force looking for some early strength before the later weakness played out according to script. The overall bias is still bearish as we watch for the aberration to wrap up on the Sell Mode which caused the rise over the last 6-7 sessions. As mentioned on Thursday's briefing, this has not been a strong contrary aberration as we have not seen the market really take off to the upside.
Now, as far as resiliance, I am not referring to Thursdays's "AirBall" or Airpocket (as they are known on the floor) which occured at 3:30est. That is not real volatility but actually the lack of liquidity. My contacts on the floor told me that a large order came in at that time to an empty S&P500 pit and no one to trade against the short so the market hit an Airpocket and got slammed instantly from around 1153-4 down to 1148.00 (yesterdays' low) before finding some support.
Anyway, those of you who were holding short from a previous trade at the Sell Pivot target area got lucky and saw some fast cash appear. Most had scalped some points off the earlier highs near the Sell Pivot Target (me included) before that last half hour squash.
Other than that it was a nice day of quick scalps off Trailblazer setups and accumulating points and trying to keep the stops tight.
Abrieviated commentary so have a nice weekend and we'll catch up on Monday.
Today's Call & Briefing:
No Headline Call and No briefing today due to options expiration. We are standing aside in any trade action today.
Value Area: 1,153.80 - 1,157.20
Watch for resistance now at the bottom of the Value area and see if they can hold in Value or continue lower. Trade below this zone is bearish.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,142.50 - 1,143.50
No Trade at this pivot today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,155.25 - 1,154.25
No Trade at this pivot today.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,145.60
We are closing in on the Pit Bull. Get ready for a Crossover to the downside OR grand support to come in as they push higher again from here.
We will have to see how the expiration treats this level and then we can have a more clear idea. Trade that blows through this number to the downside but then backs up and returns to stall at this zone is probably a bullish sign.
Pro Trader's Action
Use today to observe the markets reaction to that Airball yesterday in the Pit and see if those numbers stick as Value in the market. If the balance of prices is lower then we are fully resuming the Sell Mode below 1142-43 as discussed recently here in these briefings.
Have a nice relaxing weekend and will look forward to updating you on Monday.
All the best, Mohan