CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

"Session Shows a Real Rally Building"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/18/2004 4:34 PM EST

"We get 8-point spikes on drug approvals, court wins and earnings surprises. Tuesday's spike was on Reuters (RTRSY:Nasdaq ADR - commentary - research). Today's spikes are on Rambus (RMBS:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and Biogen Idec (BIIB:Nasdaq - commentary - research). I don't know about you, but when looking for takeaways of the last few days, I would seize on the ability to make big money on news that's not about takeovers.

In the late 1990s, we became accustomed to the up 12-down-12-up world as disappointments crushed stocks and surprises buoyed them. In retrospect, though, many of those pump-ups were pure short-squeezes, the legacy of stocks being run up by unscrupulous hedge funds.


Now, stocks run up big not on short-squeezes -- neither Biogen Idec nor Reuters nor Rambus had huge short positions coming into their bountiful sessions, although all were larger at one time -- but on animal enthusiasm. It may not be any healthier in the eyes of some of you, but I like real rallies based on interest, not phony rallies based on squeezes, even as the profits you make if you are long are no different.

One is an edifice that can give back a few bricks but rally again, the other is pure quicksand that will later give it back in gobs, as happened after the 1999 bull.

I know that some of you will focus on the decline of the broader averages today, but I think that's more option expiration than anything else. I expect it to be reversed later in the week. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

"This Bull's Not Boring, Just Sensible"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/18/2004 2:36 PM EST

"This isn't 1999. We can't go up for days on end for no reason. Each day needs a new reason. And on the day after a big up day, we tend to trade sideways to down without new information.

Each bull market has a hallmark. The hallmark of the previous bull, the one that started Oct. 8, 1998, was reckless, drunk-driving bullishness. We just weren't pulled over fast enough to stop the wreck.


This bull market has a series of designated drivers that suit me fine. A designated driver takes its turn while the fun guy nurses the hangover.

Those who came of age during the drunk-driver bull think that this market is boring and slow. For those of us who have been around a while, this bull seems downright commonsense and natural, almost prudent in its bullishness.

I'll take that anytime. Tends to go a lot longer without a crash, and certainly lowers the insurance rates! And keep in mind that much of the most recent action is related to expiration Friday. The gains lost in this session will be tacked back on tomorrow or Friday, barring really negative news.

Those who long for the reckless days, let me suggest that you play with someone else's money.

Otherwise, this pace is perfect for a sober bull. "

(in www.realmoney.com)