Mohan 03/02/04
Enviado: 3/2/2004 13:53If market opens flat to higher and rallies early then we will stay on the sell side of the market. NOTICE: Monday's action gave us more evidence of the ranges and volatility opening up some.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, February 2, 2004:
We stood aside in Trading on Monday to observe the action. Look at the TCF Trade setups that occured on the chart. Nice action. A good sign we may be getting back to trading with some more range and volatility. Let's hope so.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's Action.
Well, things appear to be looking up with Monday coming in a bit stronger on the range and volatility. Maybe Mr. Market read my briefing yesterday and decided he didn't want to mess with our original TCF setups after all and decided to start giving us a break.
All kidding aside, Monday did present a bit more evidence of things opening up so let's continue to trade all of our setups including especially the new Trailblazer setup but concentrate on 6-8 points on the Hour One pivots and 3-5 points on the Trailblazer setups.
We saw the BreakDown get hit on Monday as the first Hour One pivot at 1128.00, pull back just a bit putting no pressure on a 6 point stop and then moving higher until the later afternoon.
This upward movement created a clear third level Trailblazer pattern completion which became a sell after the 3rd level up. As the markets went flat after the 3rd level up and not seen a pullback begin the trade would have been exited at a scratch to small 1 pt. loss. A re-entry short occured as the market moved higher and the Trailblazer line crossed over again at 2:58est with the price around 1140-41.00.
There was a fast, strong pullback at the 3:06est candle which sent the markets into a tailspin. Later the long extended candles that took prices back down to the BreakDown area between 1130.00 and 1128.50 is where you would have covered up the trade.
This trade would have panned out for as much as +12 pts. but this is NOT normal. It was just a dramatic move and gift for those who understand the pattern and got short.
Once you get volume hitting a few candles like that then that power drives the prices fast and you just get out and take the gift. It is common for emotions to want to keep you in the trade but once you become experienced in trading this TCF Trailblazer setup you will become adept at liquidating into spike candles.
I'll help you to learn this over time.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We will be looking to stay on the sell side of the market today on a higher opening and early push up in prices.
There are two important things to be aware of today:
First is that we could get some BEAR UGLY NEWS on the opening that would send the markets into a Tailspin. Not sure if this IS going to happen but the Market Force indicators are all lined up as usual when a rig like this occurs. Just be ready so you are not surprised. If it doesn't occur...then no big deal.
Second, We will want to sell the Sell Pivot Target today up there at 1141.25-1142.25. This is a very crucial area today for seeing the markets FAIL if indeed the bearish pattern is to unfold.
I have the resistance level at 1131.25-1138.50-1142.60.
So we have closed in this zone and that means we would need to see the top two numbers hold back the buying and then fail below 1142.60 and drop back below 1131.00 to confirm the Bearish action.
The Value Area, as you can see, brackets in this zone nicely too. Although it appears to be a wide zone it is not really in the scope of a 30-50 handle move LOWER which we could get UNLESS we see the prices push above 1145.00 and throw the lower pattern into aberration.
TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We will want to watch for selling the Sell Pivot today at the 1142.00 area. It will be better today to wait for the first Hour One pivot most likely to correlate that price with this Sell Pivot target.
There is a large resistance point here though at 1142.00 but if prices cross over to the upside and the High Five are especially bullish then it will be important to note that it could be a signal for a stronger move up again to test the previous highs at 1155.00. I am rather expecting this to NOT be the case and see the prices fall back from here.
Sell the BreakOut if the NAZ is weak in relation to a higher Dow move and with a high TRIN above .90 with VXO up also +.50 or higher.
I AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A 6 POINT STOP IN THIS CURRENT TIGHT RANGE MARKET ENVIRONMENT. With Monday's range opening up some it may be OK but I need to say that a 6 point stop is too high for an average 10 point Ten Day average range.
Value Area: 1,131.40 - 1,141.50
Watch this area for support and resistance as mentioned above in correlation with this entire area being the upper support level for a lower price move to 1112.00.
If prices push above 1142-45 with a bullish High Five then it appears we are going back to test the highs at 1155.00 and most likely continue up more.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,126.75 - 1,127.75
No Trade at this pivot today. If we get a Bear Ugly day with strong, bad news associated with the drop then we may find that 1122.50 becomes a pivot point for support or lower prices if the prices blow through that area.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,142.25 - 1,141.25
We want to look to sell in this 1142.00 area but be careful if the High Five is bullish and not showing any faltering signs such as a high TRIN or VIX. Correlate this price area with the BreakOut and compare the two after the first hour for extra confirmation.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,138.80
Our second level of resistance is here at the Pit Bull. If prices stall and pullback from here this will confirm our lower move expected.
On Monday price climbed through the Pit Bull and then fell back below on that fast dive shown on the charts above. Keep in mind that many floor professionals and fund managers watch this important Pit Bull number and that may have contributed to the quick pullback on an attempt to rally higher above it.
Pro Trader's Action
The more volatile action has our fingers crossed for today continuing to give us intraday traders something to go on. We need volatility to earn our paycheck each day by capturing a nice chunk of S&P500 points each day.
Let's see if today will hand that to us again. Watch for the Trailblazer level 3 formations and use the above setups suggestions to attempt to stay on the short side.
Will we get a BreakOut BUY and see the prices violate the 1142-45 area making things bullish again? It could happen as we are still in this powerfully influenced market by Political interests who want to see their party win again this year. They have got the clout and the company insiders in their pockets to pull these kinds of tricks as we have seen since the so-called Iraq War.
So don't in any way put big Bullishness behind us just yet. I expect this year will be another very bullish year. We are looking for a pullback according to our Market Force indicators probably down to at least 1112.00 but if they rally above 1145.00 and hold up then we are IN ABERRATION on the Market Force indicators and that will mean ...be on the long side.
Good luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, February 2, 2004:
We stood aside in Trading on Monday to observe the action. Look at the TCF Trade setups that occured on the chart. Nice action. A good sign we may be getting back to trading with some more range and volatility. Let's hope so.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's Action.
Well, things appear to be looking up with Monday coming in a bit stronger on the range and volatility. Maybe Mr. Market read my briefing yesterday and decided he didn't want to mess with our original TCF setups after all and decided to start giving us a break.
All kidding aside, Monday did present a bit more evidence of things opening up so let's continue to trade all of our setups including especially the new Trailblazer setup but concentrate on 6-8 points on the Hour One pivots and 3-5 points on the Trailblazer setups.
We saw the BreakDown get hit on Monday as the first Hour One pivot at 1128.00, pull back just a bit putting no pressure on a 6 point stop and then moving higher until the later afternoon.
This upward movement created a clear third level Trailblazer pattern completion which became a sell after the 3rd level up. As the markets went flat after the 3rd level up and not seen a pullback begin the trade would have been exited at a scratch to small 1 pt. loss. A re-entry short occured as the market moved higher and the Trailblazer line crossed over again at 2:58est with the price around 1140-41.00.
There was a fast, strong pullback at the 3:06est candle which sent the markets into a tailspin. Later the long extended candles that took prices back down to the BreakDown area between 1130.00 and 1128.50 is where you would have covered up the trade.
This trade would have panned out for as much as +12 pts. but this is NOT normal. It was just a dramatic move and gift for those who understand the pattern and got short.
Once you get volume hitting a few candles like that then that power drives the prices fast and you just get out and take the gift. It is common for emotions to want to keep you in the trade but once you become experienced in trading this TCF Trailblazer setup you will become adept at liquidating into spike candles.
I'll help you to learn this over time.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We will be looking to stay on the sell side of the market today on a higher opening and early push up in prices.
There are two important things to be aware of today:
First is that we could get some BEAR UGLY NEWS on the opening that would send the markets into a Tailspin. Not sure if this IS going to happen but the Market Force indicators are all lined up as usual when a rig like this occurs. Just be ready so you are not surprised. If it doesn't occur...then no big deal.
Second, We will want to sell the Sell Pivot Target today up there at 1141.25-1142.25. This is a very crucial area today for seeing the markets FAIL if indeed the bearish pattern is to unfold.
I have the resistance level at 1131.25-1138.50-1142.60.
So we have closed in this zone and that means we would need to see the top two numbers hold back the buying and then fail below 1142.60 and drop back below 1131.00 to confirm the Bearish action.
The Value Area, as you can see, brackets in this zone nicely too. Although it appears to be a wide zone it is not really in the scope of a 30-50 handle move LOWER which we could get UNLESS we see the prices push above 1145.00 and throw the lower pattern into aberration.
TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We will want to watch for selling the Sell Pivot today at the 1142.00 area. It will be better today to wait for the first Hour One pivot most likely to correlate that price with this Sell Pivot target.
There is a large resistance point here though at 1142.00 but if prices cross over to the upside and the High Five are especially bullish then it will be important to note that it could be a signal for a stronger move up again to test the previous highs at 1155.00. I am rather expecting this to NOT be the case and see the prices fall back from here.
Sell the BreakOut if the NAZ is weak in relation to a higher Dow move and with a high TRIN above .90 with VXO up also +.50 or higher.
I AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A 6 POINT STOP IN THIS CURRENT TIGHT RANGE MARKET ENVIRONMENT. With Monday's range opening up some it may be OK but I need to say that a 6 point stop is too high for an average 10 point Ten Day average range.
Value Area: 1,131.40 - 1,141.50
Watch this area for support and resistance as mentioned above in correlation with this entire area being the upper support level for a lower price move to 1112.00.
If prices push above 1142-45 with a bullish High Five then it appears we are going back to test the highs at 1155.00 and most likely continue up more.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,126.75 - 1,127.75
No Trade at this pivot today. If we get a Bear Ugly day with strong, bad news associated with the drop then we may find that 1122.50 becomes a pivot point for support or lower prices if the prices blow through that area.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,142.25 - 1,141.25
We want to look to sell in this 1142.00 area but be careful if the High Five is bullish and not showing any faltering signs such as a high TRIN or VIX. Correlate this price area with the BreakOut and compare the two after the first hour for extra confirmation.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,138.80
Our second level of resistance is here at the Pit Bull. If prices stall and pullback from here this will confirm our lower move expected.
On Monday price climbed through the Pit Bull and then fell back below on that fast dive shown on the charts above. Keep in mind that many floor professionals and fund managers watch this important Pit Bull number and that may have contributed to the quick pullback on an attempt to rally higher above it.
Pro Trader's Action
The more volatile action has our fingers crossed for today continuing to give us intraday traders something to go on. We need volatility to earn our paycheck each day by capturing a nice chunk of S&P500 points each day.
Let's see if today will hand that to us again. Watch for the Trailblazer level 3 formations and use the above setups suggestions to attempt to stay on the short side.
Will we get a BreakOut BUY and see the prices violate the 1142-45 area making things bullish again? It could happen as we are still in this powerfully influenced market by Political interests who want to see their party win again this year. They have got the clout and the company insiders in their pockets to pull these kinds of tricks as we have seen since the so-called Iraq War.
So don't in any way put big Bullishness behind us just yet. I expect this year will be another very bullish year. We are looking for a pullback according to our Market Force indicators probably down to at least 1112.00 but if they rally above 1145.00 and hold up then we are IN ABERRATION on the Market Force indicators and that will mean ...be on the long side.
Good luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan