CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

ulisses já agora quando puderes poê este comentário do Alan Farley
The Selloff Gives Charts a Toppy Look
If the market drops further, keep your eye on these levels as possible rally points.

um abraço.

Aqui está ele:

"Market Has More Patience Than You"

By Jeff Cooper
TheStreet.com Contributor
01/28/2004 07:27 AM EST


"Another failure for piggyback momentum. A manic Monday gave only a turnaround Tuesday. Our hope for a three-day spike up toward 1170/1180 S&P remains elusive.

As we have said many times, the market usually gives a graceful exit. In other words, any significant high is typically tested with a return-rally failure. The classic example of a significant top that was tested was the bubble top in March 2000 and the return-rally failure into September 2000.


The key word here as to the exit is graceful. It all depends on how you define graceful. A test failure could be within 3% to 5% of a prior high -- either below or above the prior high.

Our expectation has been for a fleur-de-lis, a three-day-or-so spike characterized by expansion of range into our target band, because, historically, strong-trending persistent moves go parabolic before exhausting themselves. Such powerful thoroughbred equity moves usually rear up on their heels before being tamed.

Of course, the possibility exists that a 3% to 5% pullback occurs prior to our outer projections being reached and tested. In that case, the market may choose to whoop 'em up on that test rather than from current levels.

Remember that a 3% to 5% correction can occur at any time, and God knows the market is overdue for one. A 3% to 5% correction does nothing to destroy the trend. Remember (to paraphrase John Maynard Keynes) that the trend can last longer and the market stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

No one knows the answer as to when a 3% to 5% correction will occur. Just as no one knew that the only correct forecast for the past six months was straight up.

One of the reasons I believe we are getting these late-day levitations, or surges, as we did Monday is because there are 6,000 hedge funds out there, many of which are run by young masters and commanders who have been fighting the trend.

These hedgies are active traders. When the market fails to trade lower toward the end of the session, many times these hedgies rush to cover. This constant covering of shorts saps fuel from the market -- eventually. How often can this behavior, this personality of late-day surges without any follow-through, charm the players?

Last week, a burst of momentum above 1136 seemed to signal that this workhorse of a trend, which had been stair-stepping up since March and morphed into a thoroughbred since mid-December, was poised to gallop into the wire. Again, Monday, it looked like the bit was taken by players. How many attempts to jump into our upper projections can the short-term trend withstand without sellers showing some consecutive conviction?

On Tuesday, the popular indices gave up nearly as much as they gained on Monday. When this occurs from new swing highs on the heels of a relentless advance, these reversal bars -- what some call train tracks and what I refer to as Expansion Range Double Sticks -- often (not always) raise a yellow flag. Of course, the volatility over the past few days may be more descriptive than predictive: It may simply be reflective of nervousness during earnings season in an environment in which much is priced for perfection."

(in www.realmoney.com)

ulisses podias postar o comentário do jeff
Market Has More Patience Than You
Our hope for a three-day spike up toward 1170/1180 S&P remains elusive.

Rev Shark
"Warning Signs Suggest a More Cautious Game Plan"
1/28/04 08:06 AM ET

"One thorn of experience is worth a whole wilderness of warning."

-- James Russell Lowell

"Yesterday, for the first time in weeks, the market saw some tangible warning signs of the possibility of a pullback. Several things have occurred recently that should give us pause when considering the ability of this market to keep on climbing without some sort of rest or consolidation.

One of the hallmarks of a bull market is strength in the late afternoon. When market participants are feeling confident they tend to engage in a flurry of buying at the close. Yesterday we had no afternoon strength. We closed very weak and the dip buyers were not inclined to step up even though there was a significant pullback.

Another concern about the action yesterday was that it was a day of distribution. That simply means the market declined on volume that was higher than the prior day. An isolated day of distribution is no big deal. It is only when there are several in a fairly short time that we need to be worried. When we start seeing pullbacks on heavier volume on several different days, it is a sign that institutions are locking in profits.

A third warning sign is the increased volatility we have had in recent days. Markets become increasingly unstable when they are near important turning points. Investors become less confident and more indecisive as they begin to think about taking profits. They aren't quite sure whether they should hold on or do some selling, which creates some quick swings like the one we saw over the last two days. The big gain on Monday was completely reversed on Tuesday. That is a sign that market participants are uncertain about what to do, and may signal a turning point.

Remember, all of these things are simply warnings. It doesn't mean we should expect a sudden and complete collapse of the market. It simply means that we should increase our vigilance and be prepared to move out of the way should the warnings prove prescient.

This is where experience comes into play. The mistake the novice makes is to dismiss warnings because similar ones in the recent past have proved to be the equivalent of the boy who cried wolf. Why should we fuss over these things when the market clearly has substantial upside momentum? The folks who have suffered have been the worrywarts who refuse to respect all of the positives that are out there. Blind optimism can be a great way to make money but it's also a great way to lose it when things turn.

Experience teaches you to keep an open mind and not to become too entrenched in one particular viewpoint. Keep the warning signs in the back of your mind and watch for further ones. Don't overanticipate, but don't be oblivious to the possibility of a turning point. I still have plenty of long positions but I'm cautious and a bit concerned after the action yesterday.

Another important thing to keep in mind is that a market pullback doesn't have to be anything dramatic. The bears would like you to believe that as soon as this market cracks, we're destined to quickly visit the lows of a year ago. Just like the bulls who think this market will never rest, the bears expecting a crash of epic proportions are very likely to be disappointed.

Earnings reports produced some early tremors last night but after some reflection the buyers stepped up and are helping to produce a positive open this morning. Most of the major earnings reports are out of the way now with the exception of Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) and a couple others, so we'll have to look toward other market-moving catalysts, such as economic data.

The most important economic consideration is the FOMC position on interest rates. Its announcement is due out today at 2:15 p.m. EST but it is widely anticipated to simply be a repeat of the prior report. We also have durable orders and new-homes sales data due this morning, which will garner some attention.

European markets are generally higher and Asian markets lower. Spot gold is trading up 1.80 to 412. Oil is down, the dollar mixed. A big snowstorm on the East Coast may impact trading volume today, which could lead to increased volatility.

Once again the key to the market mood will be the action the last couple hours of the day. A weak finish will be another important warning sign to contemplate. "

(in www.realmoney.com)