CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

E aqui ficam alguns breves comentários (algo pessimistas) dos analistas do Realmoney:

Robert Marcin

Amazon Looks Primed to Disappoint
1/27/04 04:43 PM ET

"I think the Amazon numbers will disappoint. On the surface the numbers looked good, but there were some major issues. North America revenue growth looks low, gross margins were down, and the company did not guide up. As I have maintained, little leverage exists in the business model. At 90 times fully taxed '04 estimates, the share looked primed to disappoint. I just shorted some stock. "
Short AMZN




Peter Eavis

AMZN Tricks: A Suspect Set of Numbers
1/27/04 04:36 PM ET

"Despite the upped guidance, Amazon reports a suspect set of numbers. The bombshell is the sharp compression in gross margin to 21.9%, which suggests the company is discounting the heck out of stuff.
It may also mean that Amazon is selling proportionately less through third parties, a high-margin source of revenue. But what do you know? Amazon has omitted from its fourth-quarter press release the contribution of third-party sales to overall units sold. Another shocker: It has also left out unit sale growth.

Maybe they'll give out these numbers on the call. If they don't, things could get nasty for Amazon once again.

And we thought turning off the Delight-O-Meter was bad enough! "

(in www.realmoney.com)

"Amazon boosted its 2004 operating income estimate to between $355 million and $455 million in the current year. Assuming the company's interest expenses remain roughly constant and its share count grows at the same rate as last year, that projection works out to be about 81 cents to $1.06 a share in pro forma income.

Amazon had previously predicted that it would post operating income of $315 million to $415 million on sales of $5.75 billion to $6.25 billion. Analysts forecast the company will earn 88 cents a share, excluding charges, on $6.21 billion in sales.


But Amazon's report had a number of disturbing tidbits.

As it had throughout the year, Amazon benefited in the fourth quarter from the decline of the dollar versus other major currencies because that change in exchange rates increases the nominal dollar value of its sales.

In the fourth quarter, the dollar's decline added about $98 million to Amazon's revenue and about $6 million to its operating profits, company CFO Tom Szkutak said on a conference call with members of the press. For the full year, the change in foreign exchange rates added about $232 million to Amazon's sales and about $14 million to its operating profits, Szkutak said.

Meanwhile, the company saw a decline in its gross profit margin. Gross margin, which represents the difference between what a company charges customers for its goods and what it pays suppliers for them, fell to 21.9% of sales from 23.5% in the year-ago period.

Part of the decline was likely fueled by the company's free shipping promotion, which the company made permanent last January. The company's loss from the promotion grew 86% year over year to $56 million.

The company also saw a disturbing rise in inventories. Amazon's inventories jumped 45% year over year to $293.9 million. In contrast, the company's 2003 sales grew about 34% over 2002. "

(in www.realmoney.com)