Cramer: "Bulls Need to Curb Their Market Enthusiasm&quo
Enviado: 20/1/2004 19:26"Bulls Need to Curb Their Market Enthusiasm"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
01/20/2004 12:57 PM EST
"We bulls want profit-taking. We want people saying the market has run too far, too fast. We need some people to bet against the market.
We need people to say, "United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - commentary - research), what's up with that?" We need people to say "Hey, that Honeywell (HON:NYSE - commentary - research) was up on nothing."
We have to have more concern, more worry, more fretting, maybe even some political risk associated with a stronger Democratic field.
In fact, we could use a couple of days where:
gold goes higher,
Nortel (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) and Lucent (LU:NYSE - commentary - research) go lower and
we have another run on the dollar.
Why do I want all of this negativity? Because the only thing that can defeat this market is the bulls themselves getting carried away. We could get too excited taking up too many bad stocks and then setting ourselves up for disappointment, particularly if the Federal Reserve listens to the Philly Fed, which wants rate hikes now.
This market must be a Larry David market: We need to Curb Your Enthusiasm.
If we do, we could be up 20% this year, no problem.
If we don't?
We could be up 20% and then down 20%!
So, build pessimism, build. Sell off, Lucent and Nortel, sell off. And we could keep climbing for some time.
A stairstepped move, not a parabolic one, is the key. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
01/20/2004 12:57 PM EST
"We bulls want profit-taking. We want people saying the market has run too far, too fast. We need some people to bet against the market.
We need people to say, "United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - commentary - research), what's up with that?" We need people to say "Hey, that Honeywell (HON:NYSE - commentary - research) was up on nothing."
We have to have more concern, more worry, more fretting, maybe even some political risk associated with a stronger Democratic field.
In fact, we could use a couple of days where:
gold goes higher,
Nortel (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) and Lucent (LU:NYSE - commentary - research) go lower and
we have another run on the dollar.
Why do I want all of this negativity? Because the only thing that can defeat this market is the bulls themselves getting carried away. We could get too excited taking up too many bad stocks and then setting ourselves up for disappointment, particularly if the Federal Reserve listens to the Philly Fed, which wants rate hikes now.
This market must be a Larry David market: We need to Curb Your Enthusiasm.
If we do, we could be up 20% this year, no problem.
If we don't?
We could be up 20% and then down 20%!
So, build pessimism, build. Sell off, Lucent and Nortel, sell off. And we could keep climbing for some time.
A stairstepped move, not a parabolic one, is the key. "
(in www.realmoney.com)