Reacção do mercado depois de grandes negócios
Enviado: 15/1/2004 14:33Muito interessante a breve nota agora escrita pelo Rev Shark. Segundo um estudo do Sentimentrader.com, depois de um grande negócio (isto vem a propósito do anúncio da fusão entre JPMorgan e Bank One), a reacção do S&P apenas é positiva no dia seguinte, geralmente sinalizando um topo de curto prazo.
Deixo-vos a nota completa:
Rev Shark
"Don't Overestimate the Bank Deal's Effect on Short-Term Action"
1/15/04 08:25 AM ET
"Jason Goepfert, who runs a great site at Sentimentrader.com, sent me a study he did of how the S&P 500 has performed following large mergers. There have been nine big mergers in recent years:
AOL and Time Warner; Warner-Lambert and Pfizer; Mobil and Exxon; Citicorp and Traverlers; Ameritech and SBC; BankAmerica and Nations Bank; Wells Fargo and Norwest; JP Morgan and Chase; and US Bancorp and Firstar.
On the day that the merger was announced the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.3% but the positive action did not last for long. Within one day, the S&P 500 had declined an average of 0.4%. Eight times out of nine the S&P 500 was lower within three days by an average of 1.4% and within 10 days the S&P 500 was down an average of 2.3% from the date of the merger.
The sample size is small and the data are grouped into a limited time frame but the point to be recognized is that big mergers have not typically resulted in igniting big market moves. In fact, just the opposite tends to be the case: Big mergers tend to produce short-term tops. Don't be overly euphoric about today's news. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Deixo-vos a nota completa:
Rev Shark
"Don't Overestimate the Bank Deal's Effect on Short-Term Action"
1/15/04 08:25 AM ET
"Jason Goepfert, who runs a great site at Sentimentrader.com, sent me a study he did of how the S&P 500 has performed following large mergers. There have been nine big mergers in recent years:
AOL and Time Warner; Warner-Lambert and Pfizer; Mobil and Exxon; Citicorp and Traverlers; Ameritech and SBC; BankAmerica and Nations Bank; Wells Fargo and Norwest; JP Morgan and Chase; and US Bancorp and Firstar.
On the day that the merger was announced the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.3% but the positive action did not last for long. Within one day, the S&P 500 had declined an average of 0.4%. Eight times out of nine the S&P 500 was lower within three days by an average of 1.4% and within 10 days the S&P 500 was down an average of 2.3% from the date of the merger.
The sample size is small and the data are grouped into a limited time frame but the point to be recognized is that big mergers have not typically resulted in igniting big market moves. In fact, just the opposite tends to be the case: Big mergers tend to produce short-term tops. Don't be overly euphoric about today's news. "
(in www.realmoney.com)