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"Complacency's Rise Dampens Bullish Outlook"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
01/14/2004 10:22 AM EST
"Can 1,500 Chicago executives be wrong?
That's what I wondered Tuesday after Terry Savage, the terrific Chicago-Sun-Times columnist and author, asked the attendees of the Executives' Club of Chicago luncheon I was speaking at to raise their hands if they thought the Dow was going to retreat below 10,000.
Only three people raised their hands.
The showing took my breath away, especially when you consider that when that question was asked at this event a year ago, when the Dow was at 8700, more than a third of the attendees thought the Dow could go much lower and most thought it wouldn't do anything.
When I saw only three hands go up vs. tons of hands going up when Savage asked for shows of confidence in 10% and 25% gains, I gulped, turned to my co-panelist, Diane Swonk from Bank One, and blurted "Bad dispersion!"
Yep, I can't stress how much that tidbit, that anecdotal tidbit, made me want to reassess my aggressively bullish stance. I can't stress it enough because it says three important things:
1. Everyone's invested already or else hundreds more hands would have gone up for the Dow retreat question.
2. Nobody's got puts or shorts or positions that would profit from a decline.
3.They were wrong last year; it would be consistent if they were wrong again this year.
Of course, the issue I am fighting against has to do with the delectable combination of good earnings, low inflation and low interest rates coupled with, of course, the lack of competition from other investment alternatives.
The straw poll at this luncheon Tuesday doesn't impact those fundamentals.
But it does speak loudly: There is less room for error than we think. When everyone is in, it's really hard to get new money coming in that will move the market higher other than the money that comes from the annual contributions, which turns to a trickle come February.
You can't just be a contrarian and make money. You can't say "OK, I have to bet against those hands because my gut says to do so even though I don't have a good bear case."
But you can raise cash when you see too much complacency around.
And that's what I've been doing -- not hand-over-fist, not aggressively, but not idly, either -- and I will continue to do so today for my Action Alerts PLUS portfolio. "
(in
www.realmoney.com)
Enviado: 14/1/2004 20:50
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num ele diz "caramba, é melhor tirar dinheiro do mercado, já está tudo dentro, não shorto, mas dentro não me sinto confortável", e no outro, 5 minutos mais tarde, diz "COMPRAR! ADORO COMPRAR, TANTA COISA PARA EU COMPRAR..." lol. O "homem" nesses 5 minutos nem teve tempo para escrever o segundo artigo, quando mais para mudar assim de opinião...