Não sei se toda a gente já leu o discurso mas em todo o caso vou-me entreter a selecionar umas partes que achei mto porreirinhas:
"Globalization has altered the economic frameworks of both developed and developing nations in ways that are difficult to fully comprehend. Nonetheless, the largely unregulated global markets do clear and,
with rare exceptions, appear to move effortlessly from one state of equilibrium to another. It is as though an international version of Adam Smith's "invisible hand" is at work."
Começa logo em grande estilo! Este discurso realmente tá mto fixe!
"One key aspect of the recent globalization process is the apparent persistent rise in the dispersion of current account balances. (...)
This trend is inherently sustainable unless some countries build up deficits that are no longer capable of being financed.
Many argue that this has become the case for America's large current account deficit."
E no parágrafo seguinte continuou a dar-lhe sem dó nem piedade! Começa a ficar mto giro o cenário!
"There is no simple measure by which to judge the sustainability of either a string of current account deficits or their consequence, a significant buildup in external claims that need to be serviced."
Ou seja, não sabem bem pra onde estão a ir... porreiro... é sempre bom saber que quem vai à frente nem sequer leva a luz acesa...
"In the end, the restraint on the size of tolerable U.S. imbalances in the global arena will likely be the reluctance of foreign country residents to accumulate additional debt and equity claims against U.S. residents."
Ok, já percebi, se "os outros" continuarem a financiar a vossa dívida a coisa é capaz de não acabar mal...
"
There is,
for the moment,
little evidence of stress in funding U.S. current account deficits. To be sure, the real exchange rate for the dollar has, on balance, declined about 15 percent broadly and roughly 25 percent against the major foreign currencies since early 2002. Yet inflation, the typical symptom of a weak currency, appears quiescent."
Tá bem. Até agora, e até ver, a coisa tá mais ou menos nos conformes...
"
Can market forces incrementally defuse a worrisome buildup in a nation's current account deficit and net external debt before a crisis more abruptly does so? The answer seems to lie with the degree of flexibility in
both domestic and international markets. By flexibility I mean the ability of an economy to absorb shocks, stabilize, and recover."
Ok, estás a preparar-me... venha lá então a conclusão do resto...
"
In domestic economies that approach full flexibility, imbalances are likely to be adjusted well before they become potentially destabilizing. In a similarly flexible world economy, as debt projections rise, product and equity prices, interest rates, and exchange rates could change, presumably to reestablish global balance."
Pois... tudo bem então?... Not!
Pq quem te está a pagar a dívida é a China e ela nem de perto nem de longe está "fully flexible".
Por isso é q andas tão preocupadinho com a China, meu malandro!
Enfim, desvaneios meus que já dão pra falar "taco a taco" com o Mr. Green! ROTFL!
Enviado: 13/1/2004 21:23
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