Mohan 12/01/04 (atrasado)
Enviado: 13/1/2004 12:26If market stages an early drop we will be looking to be buyers unless we move into a Bear Ugly mode.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, January 9, 2004:
Sell at 1128.00/ Cover for up to +8 pts
*Sell the BreakOut.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Welcome back from the weekend. I hope it was a relaxing and productive one for you.
On Friday our Headline Call was looking for any rallies for the day to start fizzling out and moving to the downside.
We hit the BreakOut at 1128.00 and with just a little bit of pressure above that price a sell off occured later in the session going into the final hour of closing.
There has been a continuous move upwards over the last few weeks and some downside reflexion was to be expected. We had the NAZ attempt to rally again but this time it faded out along with the Dow and the other indexes.
Today brings us to somewhat of a crossroads in the markets. The indexes would seem prepared for further downside action however many bears jumped all over Friday's drop thinking it was the big concluding climax of a bull run. Not fully understanding that the markets will most likely stay primarily bullish for the remainder of this year the bears will probably continue to sell rallies causing further upside. Sure we would expect some setbacks to occur along the way but with new highs being made going into the close of 2003 that says a lot for the markets.
As long as the bears stay committed to leaping all over any early signs of a drop support will come in and thwart the bearish projections like they always do during a bull market period.
The best thing to do now is consider that we will be range bound over a certain period of time with a gradual bias higher unless things change in a major way.
For us as daytraders frankly we don't really care which way things go as long as we got nice volatility and range which I suggested would be returning to the markets this week. So let's see how it goes. Here's the plan for today.
Today's Call & Briefing:
The general story of the TCF 18 Proprietary Indicators today is that we want to look to be BUYERS on any early drops of a larger scale size as the bears get more entrenched in negativity.
I have written this as the main theme for the Headline Call as that is the dication of the indicators but also we want to continue to stay on the sell side of the market if we see the market push higher first and attempt to rally off the open. Although this could happen we would prefer to stay on the buy side of the market today if that is what sets up for us.
The market holding above 1120.00 is going to be mildly bullish. We are still above the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average and as such we need to stay bullish although we are on CROSSOVER ALERT for today. We may see support come in at the Pit Bull today.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We ideally want to be BUYERS on the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One Pivot set up that we get and the market is NOT in a Bear Ugly situation. We would consider the market to be Bear Ugly if the market gaps down lower with some bad market shaking news on. We would then look for the High Five to also move into Bear Ugly readings as shown on our table on the site.
If the market opens higher and runs up higher FIRST after the opening then we would expect prices to be ready to sell off to a new lower level. Now if they take off substantially (like 8 pts. or more) from the open then there is a good chance we will stay on the sell side for today's action.
Let's keep our eye on the Buy Pivot only today as a trading opportunity on an early move lower. However, let's consider the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1111.50 to be a strong point of support and attempt to get long on a lower opening closer to that number then the 1115.75 area.
Value Area: 1,119.30 - 1,126.80
Trade below 1119.30 continues to be bearish however we would look for lower prices that we buy to move up and get back above 1120.00 to be considered mildly bullish. So if we do get a chance to buy em lower then we can watch this bottom of the VA as a key pivot to compare with the High Five for a move higher. Top of the VA will provide resistance at first. Moving above that solidifies the bullish case again.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,115.75 - 1,116.75
As mentioned above let's look to be buyers slighly below this area on a flat to lower opening and early drop down to the 1112.00-1113.00 area.
The best part about getting long on a chance trade at this level is that you can use a tight stop just below 1111.00 to get out if the trade doesn't pan out and we can re-enter at the BreakDown if that is lower and the markets have not turned Bear Ugly.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,127.25 - 1,126.25
No Trade at this pivot. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1131.50 to hold back any buying if they run em up here again.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,114.50
We are closing in on this important number and our expectation is that we will find it holding the prices up today unless we get a Bear Ugly market situation.
Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if we can get a flat to lower opening and an early downside move that tests this whole 1112.00-1114.00 area so we can get long just below the Buy Pivot Target.
Now if we get this action we want to place a stop just below 1111.00 and get out repositioning at the BreakDown if that is the correct move to make. Most likely if the High Five indicators are real bearish we could see this occur but we want to be sure off the open that no Bear Ugly news has been released on the markets.
We still want to sell em if we get the higher open and early run up in prices so be on the lookout for another rally attempt that cleans out the current excess bears in the market. We would be willing sellers if we see the Dow get going strong but the NAZ holding back with the TRIN above 1.10 or more.
All the best of luck and success today. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, January 9, 2004:
Sell at 1128.00/ Cover for up to +8 pts
*Sell the BreakOut.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Welcome back from the weekend. I hope it was a relaxing and productive one for you.
On Friday our Headline Call was looking for any rallies for the day to start fizzling out and moving to the downside.
We hit the BreakOut at 1128.00 and with just a little bit of pressure above that price a sell off occured later in the session going into the final hour of closing.
There has been a continuous move upwards over the last few weeks and some downside reflexion was to be expected. We had the NAZ attempt to rally again but this time it faded out along with the Dow and the other indexes.
Today brings us to somewhat of a crossroads in the markets. The indexes would seem prepared for further downside action however many bears jumped all over Friday's drop thinking it was the big concluding climax of a bull run. Not fully understanding that the markets will most likely stay primarily bullish for the remainder of this year the bears will probably continue to sell rallies causing further upside. Sure we would expect some setbacks to occur along the way but with new highs being made going into the close of 2003 that says a lot for the markets.
As long as the bears stay committed to leaping all over any early signs of a drop support will come in and thwart the bearish projections like they always do during a bull market period.
The best thing to do now is consider that we will be range bound over a certain period of time with a gradual bias higher unless things change in a major way.
For us as daytraders frankly we don't really care which way things go as long as we got nice volatility and range which I suggested would be returning to the markets this week. So let's see how it goes. Here's the plan for today.
Today's Call & Briefing:
The general story of the TCF 18 Proprietary Indicators today is that we want to look to be BUYERS on any early drops of a larger scale size as the bears get more entrenched in negativity.
I have written this as the main theme for the Headline Call as that is the dication of the indicators but also we want to continue to stay on the sell side of the market if we see the market push higher first and attempt to rally off the open. Although this could happen we would prefer to stay on the buy side of the market today if that is what sets up for us.
The market holding above 1120.00 is going to be mildly bullish. We are still above the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average and as such we need to stay bullish although we are on CROSSOVER ALERT for today. We may see support come in at the Pit Bull today.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We ideally want to be BUYERS on the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One Pivot set up that we get and the market is NOT in a Bear Ugly situation. We would consider the market to be Bear Ugly if the market gaps down lower with some bad market shaking news on. We would then look for the High Five to also move into Bear Ugly readings as shown on our table on the site.
If the market opens higher and runs up higher FIRST after the opening then we would expect prices to be ready to sell off to a new lower level. Now if they take off substantially (like 8 pts. or more) from the open then there is a good chance we will stay on the sell side for today's action.
Let's keep our eye on the Buy Pivot only today as a trading opportunity on an early move lower. However, let's consider the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1111.50 to be a strong point of support and attempt to get long on a lower opening closer to that number then the 1115.75 area.
Value Area: 1,119.30 - 1,126.80
Trade below 1119.30 continues to be bearish however we would look for lower prices that we buy to move up and get back above 1120.00 to be considered mildly bullish. So if we do get a chance to buy em lower then we can watch this bottom of the VA as a key pivot to compare with the High Five for a move higher. Top of the VA will provide resistance at first. Moving above that solidifies the bullish case again.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,115.75 - 1,116.75
As mentioned above let's look to be buyers slighly below this area on a flat to lower opening and early drop down to the 1112.00-1113.00 area.
The best part about getting long on a chance trade at this level is that you can use a tight stop just below 1111.00 to get out if the trade doesn't pan out and we can re-enter at the BreakDown if that is lower and the markets have not turned Bear Ugly.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,127.25 - 1,126.25
No Trade at this pivot. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1131.50 to hold back any buying if they run em up here again.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,114.50
We are closing in on this important number and our expectation is that we will find it holding the prices up today unless we get a Bear Ugly market situation.
Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if we can get a flat to lower opening and an early downside move that tests this whole 1112.00-1114.00 area so we can get long just below the Buy Pivot Target.
Now if we get this action we want to place a stop just below 1111.00 and get out repositioning at the BreakDown if that is the correct move to make. Most likely if the High Five indicators are real bearish we could see this occur but we want to be sure off the open that no Bear Ugly news has been released on the markets.
We still want to sell em if we get the higher open and early run up in prices so be on the lookout for another rally attempt that cleans out the current excess bears in the market. We would be willing sellers if we see the Dow get going strong but the NAZ holding back with the TRIN above 1.10 or more.
All the best of luck and success today. Mohan