CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Então as correcções ao mercado que supostamente irão suceder durante este mês são tipo "ursinhos"

Já agora e desculpem a ignorância, qual a razão principal destes ajustamentos

Cumprimentos a todos

Olá! Já sabes a minha opinião...
Acrescento que estou quase convencido que as correcções no mercado americano estão para breve, se não começarem já hoje!
Aí sim, depois de um redobrar de forças, o mercado seguirá a sua tendência de subida!

Abraço

O meu curto prazo falo de duas/três semanas. Aliás, no artigo a que o Hobbes se refere ("Um touro que acredita na próxima vitória dos ursos"), aquilo que digo é que não acredito num Janeiro tão bom como a História mostra e como a maioria dos investidores e analistas prevê. Por isso, penso que podemos considerar esse o horizontem temporal.

Quanto a essa ida do S&P aos 1150, antes de cair, claro que é possível, mas eu pessoalmente, acredito que o S&P retrairá antes disso, para depois voltar a subir.

Qual seria esse curto prazo?
O que achas da teoria do S&P ir testar os 1150 (50% de retracção) e aí termos as quedas?

Em termos de curto prazo, sim. Isso em nada belisca a minha perspectiva e estratégia optimista de médio/longo prazo.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Caro Ulisses,

Ainda acredita na vitória dos Ursos

Cumprimentos

"Seize the Market"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
01/08/2004 08:53 AM EST



"Remember this time! It might not happen again for years. Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE - commentary - research), Nokia (NOK:NYSE ADR - commentary - research), Alcoa (AA:NYSE - commentary - research) and Best Buy (BBY:NYSE - commentary - research) all say things are better than they thought. A consumer products company, a cell phone company, an aluminum company and a hard-goods retailer all are saying this. That's an unbelievable confluence of good news. It shouldn't be happening. There shouldn't be an environment where all of those good things are happening.

Giddy.


That's how you have to be about it. I am a skeptical guy, but this confluence is blowing my skepticism to smithereens simply because I have never seen it like this. Never.

Again, consider that we have seen periods where all of the commodity companies do well. But that usually spells negativity for the consumer nondurables like Procter & Gamble. We have seen periods where the consumer has done well, but again, those aren't usually periods when the producers do well. If we get good news from a financial right here, we may very well be in true nirvana territory: no inflation, low rates, high growth for many industries.

Savor this time. Understand how unusual it is.

The big worry about 2004, the big knock, was that the rally of 2003 foretold positive news. But, and this is what I am good at, it wasn't supposed to be this positive.

Remember this time! You'll need it again someday when things are much worse than expected, as they were from mid-2000 to mid-2003. You will need this time to stay in the game again when bleakness intrudes again and things go awry. You have to savor this time because this is when an immense amount of money can be made in many areas.

It's the kind of stuff that says, "If you don't think there is a new bull market now, you ain't ever going to think it." "

(in www.realmoney.com)