Mohan 7/01/04
Enviado: 7/1/2004 16:24Fool Moon Day today! Look for the possibility of erratic swings. We want to stay on the sell side of the market.
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, January 6, 2004:
Sell 1119.75 area/ Cover for 2-3 pt. loss
* Sell BreakOut and cover in final trading hour with no downside pressure on the trade.
special note: SEE BELOW FOR VALUE AREA.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
On our Headline Call for Tuesday we were looking for the market to "hang up" near the highs and sell off later in the session with this type of price action. We were also looking for continued bullish action IF we got a fast, early sell off from early highs.
Tuesday was basically an early zig zag type day with no real sell off so to speak and the prices did "hang up" so we went ahead and shorted the BreakOut at the 1119.75 area. Usually we use MIT (Market if touched) orders to enter so if you use these your fill will usually be within a few ticks of this. The idea is that if we hit that price and assuming we want to trade RIGHT AT THE BREAKOUT (or BreakDown if we are hitting a trade there) then you will get filled somewhere near the Pivot.
Prices Hung up as expected near the highs but never really gave us any downside confirmation other than a point or so. It was also another tight range day of 6.40 points so overall it was a challenge to get some profit out of the trade.
The High Five had all the bearish characteristics we needed which stayed in negative territory but in the final hour they kept trying to push higher and with the Dow and NAZ improving we cut the trade following our methods.
When you see the final hour approaching and a trade has not given you any profit or if indeed it is pushing against you then you want to look for a place to consider getting out. This is just normal logic here and not any rocket science. However, if there is any symptom of the trade working out it is always better to try and hold the trade to what we call "the stop or fruition of the trade".
So the trade was cut with a small 2-3 pt. loss.
Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we are going to look for prices to rise further and for there to be some erratic market moves due to the Full Moon (I call it the Fool Moon for traders because these days can get really crazy sometimes and fool a lot of market players.)
Our overall stategy is going to be the same as Tuesday where we ideally be able to short a rally at the BreakOut. My gut feeling is that for today if the market is showing bullish High Five signs we are going to need to add 2-4 pts. to the BreakOut but we will see when we get there.
We will not be using the Buy/Sell Pivots this week as we let the market play catch up and reveal itself for a few days. Keep an eye on those levels though plus the +/-4.25 stop/pivot for clues of price support and resistance.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We ideally will be able to get short at the BreakOut again on an early push up in prices. Watch for this and look to add 2-4 pts. if it is a bullish High Five.
If we hit the BreakDown first then we simply want to see if an early selloff is part of a Bear Ugly type day with strong, negative news effecting the markets. This does not involve ordinary, course of business governmental reports but some out of the ordinary news that is shocking the markets. Theses are usually how Bear Ugly days show up.
If the market is NOT in a Bear Ugly type mode but the BreakDown is hit first then we want to Buy that BreakDown and look for another day where the market pushes towards the highs. I would prefer to stay on the sell side of the market but we will take this trade if it shows up. A similar situation occured on Monday.
Value Area: 1,118.40 - 1,120.90
Watch this area for support and resistance. Like yesterday we will look for prices to trade into the VA as confirmation of weakness with support around the numbers until the range can breakout. VALUE AREA IS: 1118.40-1120.90
Buy Pivot Target: 1,118.25 - 1,119.25
No Trade at this pivot target today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1114.00 for support. Busting below that is a negative for the markets for today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,124.50 - 1,123.50
There may be some strong resistance up here but we will avoid trading at this pivot today and look for the BreakOut to compare to this price zone. +4.25 stop/pivot is 1128.75 which should hold buying back if they are going to sell off today.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,105.00
We are solidly above the Pit Bull and in a buy trend which may be getting exhausted soon. We are more or less expecting that to happen today near the Highs of the day or the BreakOut. Keep buying early drops above this number unless the climate changes and we get a Bear Ugly type day as described above.
Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if we can get a chance to hit the BreakOut again today with a sell and get some Fool Moon erratic drop lower.
No guarantees in this game but the signs are there for a small correction to start getting going.
We are going to be willing buyers if they smack em down early and give us the BreakDown without it being a Bear Ugly day.
Have a great and succesful day today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, January 6, 2004:
Sell 1119.75 area/ Cover for 2-3 pt. loss
* Sell BreakOut and cover in final trading hour with no downside pressure on the trade.
special note: SEE BELOW FOR VALUE AREA.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
On our Headline Call for Tuesday we were looking for the market to "hang up" near the highs and sell off later in the session with this type of price action. We were also looking for continued bullish action IF we got a fast, early sell off from early highs.
Tuesday was basically an early zig zag type day with no real sell off so to speak and the prices did "hang up" so we went ahead and shorted the BreakOut at the 1119.75 area. Usually we use MIT (Market if touched) orders to enter so if you use these your fill will usually be within a few ticks of this. The idea is that if we hit that price and assuming we want to trade RIGHT AT THE BREAKOUT (or BreakDown if we are hitting a trade there) then you will get filled somewhere near the Pivot.
Prices Hung up as expected near the highs but never really gave us any downside confirmation other than a point or so. It was also another tight range day of 6.40 points so overall it was a challenge to get some profit out of the trade.
The High Five had all the bearish characteristics we needed which stayed in negative territory but in the final hour they kept trying to push higher and with the Dow and NAZ improving we cut the trade following our methods.
When you see the final hour approaching and a trade has not given you any profit or if indeed it is pushing against you then you want to look for a place to consider getting out. This is just normal logic here and not any rocket science. However, if there is any symptom of the trade working out it is always better to try and hold the trade to what we call "the stop or fruition of the trade".
So the trade was cut with a small 2-3 pt. loss.
Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we are going to look for prices to rise further and for there to be some erratic market moves due to the Full Moon (I call it the Fool Moon for traders because these days can get really crazy sometimes and fool a lot of market players.)
Our overall stategy is going to be the same as Tuesday where we ideally be able to short a rally at the BreakOut. My gut feeling is that for today if the market is showing bullish High Five signs we are going to need to add 2-4 pts. to the BreakOut but we will see when we get there.
We will not be using the Buy/Sell Pivots this week as we let the market play catch up and reveal itself for a few days. Keep an eye on those levels though plus the +/-4.25 stop/pivot for clues of price support and resistance.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We ideally will be able to get short at the BreakOut again on an early push up in prices. Watch for this and look to add 2-4 pts. if it is a bullish High Five.
If we hit the BreakDown first then we simply want to see if an early selloff is part of a Bear Ugly type day with strong, negative news effecting the markets. This does not involve ordinary, course of business governmental reports but some out of the ordinary news that is shocking the markets. Theses are usually how Bear Ugly days show up.
If the market is NOT in a Bear Ugly type mode but the BreakDown is hit first then we want to Buy that BreakDown and look for another day where the market pushes towards the highs. I would prefer to stay on the sell side of the market but we will take this trade if it shows up. A similar situation occured on Monday.
Value Area: 1,118.40 - 1,120.90
Watch this area for support and resistance. Like yesterday we will look for prices to trade into the VA as confirmation of weakness with support around the numbers until the range can breakout. VALUE AREA IS: 1118.40-1120.90
Buy Pivot Target: 1,118.25 - 1,119.25
No Trade at this pivot target today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1114.00 for support. Busting below that is a negative for the markets for today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,124.50 - 1,123.50
There may be some strong resistance up here but we will avoid trading at this pivot today and look for the BreakOut to compare to this price zone. +4.25 stop/pivot is 1128.75 which should hold buying back if they are going to sell off today.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,105.00
We are solidly above the Pit Bull and in a buy trend which may be getting exhausted soon. We are more or less expecting that to happen today near the Highs of the day or the BreakOut. Keep buying early drops above this number unless the climate changes and we get a Bear Ugly type day as described above.
Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if we can get a chance to hit the BreakOut again today with a sell and get some Fool Moon erratic drop lower.
No guarantees in this game but the signs are there for a small correction to start getting going.
We are going to be willing buyers if they smack em down early and give us the BreakDown without it being a Bear Ugly day.
Have a great and succesful day today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan