Cramer: "Analysts Resolve to Not Blow It in 2004"
Enviado: 7/1/2004 15:18"Analysts Resolve to Not Blow It in 2004"
By James J. Cramer
01/07/2004 08:22 AM EST
"At the beginning of the year, many bizarrely positive things happen on Wall Street. Maybe it's the intoxication that comes with New Year revelry. Maybe it's the inherent optimism that a new year brings, with its washing away of the old. It's almost as if the change in the calendar can amend sins and cause people to say, "You know what? I blew it last year. I am not blowing it this year."
Take the upgrades of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Nokia (NOK:NYSE - commentary - research) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM:NYSE - commentary - research) we've seen on Wall Street in the last 24 hours.
Do you believe anything's really better at these companies than it was a week ago? Don't people know that Intel's doing well? So what's with Sanford Bernstein's Adam Parker -- the same guy I criticized last night on "Kudlow & Cramer" for downgrading Micron (MU:NYSE - commentary - research) the day before its blowout quarter? I think this upgrade is one of those exercises in "trying to get it right" in 2004 and get the pain over with now.
The same goes for the J.P. Morgan upgrade by Mike Mayo. That travesty of an upgrade occurred strictly as a consequence of Mayo having to affiliate himself with some of the bank boom before it ends -- with his luck, he'll probably end it. Nothing great's happening at Nokia that anyone can tell, but at least that upgrade doesn't come after a 90% move, which is the case with the Intel and J.P. Morgan ratings changes.
I point all of this out not to poke fun at Parker and Mayo -- although that certainly would have been enough to justify my skewering in the old, mean days. (Can you believe someone emailed me and criticized me for going too easy on Mayo?) I point it out because January exuberance is always a part of the game and I want you to build it in, keep it in mind and recognize that we are in an incredibly seasonally strong period.
How strong? Put it this way: It is so strong that perhaps we can break the moronic linkage between markets that has been going on for some time, notably that when Europe and Asia go down because of the weak dollar, we also go down. Why is it moronic? The reason Toyota and BASF go down is because of lost sales to GM (GM:NYSE - commentary - research) and Dow Chemical (DOW:NYSE - commentary - research). You don't sell GM and Dow Chemical down for the same reasons!
But then again, that would assume a level of short-term rationality to the markets that I already have told you can't exist in a world where analysts upgrade Intel and J.P. Morgan just to make amends.
Random musings: Who can blame Steve Galbraith for wanting a change in lifestyle? I don't think most people realize that it's really Galbraith's main job to get on a plane and see people. While I communicate with Steve regularly, I have to tell you he is rarely in the same city, and I am always amazed when other portfolio manager friends from around the world tell me they just had dinner with Steve Galbraith last night. I just hope the hedge fund life allows him to spend more time with his family. I'm not a good one to ask about that subject, though! Best of luck, Steve, faithful friend and reader, and the best sell-side strategist on Wall Street until ... now. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
01/07/2004 08:22 AM EST
"At the beginning of the year, many bizarrely positive things happen on Wall Street. Maybe it's the intoxication that comes with New Year revelry. Maybe it's the inherent optimism that a new year brings, with its washing away of the old. It's almost as if the change in the calendar can amend sins and cause people to say, "You know what? I blew it last year. I am not blowing it this year."
Take the upgrades of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Nokia (NOK:NYSE - commentary - research) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM:NYSE - commentary - research) we've seen on Wall Street in the last 24 hours.
Do you believe anything's really better at these companies than it was a week ago? Don't people know that Intel's doing well? So what's with Sanford Bernstein's Adam Parker -- the same guy I criticized last night on "Kudlow & Cramer" for downgrading Micron (MU:NYSE - commentary - research) the day before its blowout quarter? I think this upgrade is one of those exercises in "trying to get it right" in 2004 and get the pain over with now.
The same goes for the J.P. Morgan upgrade by Mike Mayo. That travesty of an upgrade occurred strictly as a consequence of Mayo having to affiliate himself with some of the bank boom before it ends -- with his luck, he'll probably end it. Nothing great's happening at Nokia that anyone can tell, but at least that upgrade doesn't come after a 90% move, which is the case with the Intel and J.P. Morgan ratings changes.
I point all of this out not to poke fun at Parker and Mayo -- although that certainly would have been enough to justify my skewering in the old, mean days. (Can you believe someone emailed me and criticized me for going too easy on Mayo?) I point it out because January exuberance is always a part of the game and I want you to build it in, keep it in mind and recognize that we are in an incredibly seasonally strong period.
How strong? Put it this way: It is so strong that perhaps we can break the moronic linkage between markets that has been going on for some time, notably that when Europe and Asia go down because of the weak dollar, we also go down. Why is it moronic? The reason Toyota and BASF go down is because of lost sales to GM (GM:NYSE - commentary - research) and Dow Chemical (DOW:NYSE - commentary - research). You don't sell GM and Dow Chemical down for the same reasons!
But then again, that would assume a level of short-term rationality to the markets that I already have told you can't exist in a world where analysts upgrade Intel and J.P. Morgan just to make amends.
Random musings: Who can blame Steve Galbraith for wanting a change in lifestyle? I don't think most people realize that it's really Galbraith's main job to get on a plane and see people. While I communicate with Steve regularly, I have to tell you he is rarely in the same city, and I am always amazed when other portfolio manager friends from around the world tell me they just had dinner with Steve Galbraith last night. I just hope the hedge fund life allows him to spend more time with his family. I'm not a good one to ask about that subject, though! Best of luck, Steve, faithful friend and reader, and the best sell-side strategist on Wall Street until ... now. "
(in www.realmoney.com)