CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

essa frase revela a dicotomia incontornavel entre analise e trading. os analistas que apostam o seu dinheiro nas analises que fazem arriscam muito perder muito dinheiro.

ja os que as vendem, arriscam-se a ganhar bastante.
e entao se for ali na cnbc, ui!
quanto pagara a cnbc por uma analisezinha bem feitinha no diazinho oportuno em que, por acaso (!), o mercado ate esta a ir nessa direcçao. balurdios autenticos, sobretudo tendo em conta o verdaeiro valor; isso e que vale a pena. o que acontece depois ja nao e nada com eles, mas aquilo vende-se tao bem... todos os santos dias...

como em muita coisa na vida, é preciso é ter atitude e demonstrar convicção nas suas palavras, depois é só esperar e abusar da curta memória de quem nos ouve.
beijinhos
didi

Estava aqui a ler um pequeno comentário do Rev Shark e parei numa frase que achei simplesmente deliciosa:

"One of the keys way to earn a reputation as a savvy market guru is to make sure that no one remembers at what price level you first made your market prediction. Just keep repeating the same arguments over and over again until you finally get it right."

Sorri ao ler isto que é muito menos surreal do que parece.

Aqui fica o texto completo...


Rev Shark
Market Predictions Need a Time Frame
1/05/04 01:57 PM ET

"As I read predictions for 2004 from various market pundits, one thought keeps running through my mind: Timing is everything. The problem with most market predictions is that timing is a secondary consideration. Being correct about market direction can be just as bad as being dead wrong if the timing is off.

One of the keys way to earn a reputation as a savvy market guru is to make sure that no one remembers at what price level you first made your market prediction. Just keep repeating the same arguments over and over again until you finally get it right.

Sooner or later, the market will pull back or rally just like you predicted, and as long as no one notices that you are still far from break-even, you can claim victory.

I can think of one prominent long-term market bear who first started talking about how expensive technology stocks were back in 1997. He repeated the same arguments as the market bubble built and all the way back down as it popped. Unfortunately, he would still be sitting in a losing position from his initial bearish stance many years ago.

Market predictions without a time frame are useless. When someone claims to have made an accurate market call, make sure you take into account when he first made the prediction and not merely repeated it.

The indices are staying strong and showing few signs of slowing. I'm still finding it difficult to find new buys and have been making only small purchases. "

(in www.realmoney.com)