CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

eheheheh...

estou a ver que as férias te fizeram bem DJ. vens cheio de força e energia ainda bem

e pelo que eu estou a ouvir dizer... o ano 2004 promete muitas surpresas por estes lados...

Um abraço
Nunofaustino

P.S. entretanto o mercado anda na casa dos 1.214-1.217 a ver para que lado cai... esperemos com dedo pronto para negociar

Até que enfim que o James Cramer diz alguma coisa de jeito sobre a verdade dos mercados cambiais.

Estas políticas de dólar fraco ou forte são figuras de retórica e nada mais do que isso.

Há um foco importante nesta matéria: o USD fraco (e eu só considero como tal daqui a uns 20%) não ajuda a equilibrar a balança de pagamentos, como se pensa, devido à curva J (Japão-anos 80). A lenta desvalorização do dólar não permite uma correcção dos défices, provocando uma maior desvalorização que poderá, essa sim, ajudar ao equilibrio, dependendo de outros factores.

Mas disso falarei daqui a dias, e eis uma das surpresas para o Caldeirão (haverá outra) na:
Análise Global 2004 que espero publicar antes do Natal ou do Ano Novo !!

Um abraço

djovarius

"Treasurer Snow Keeps the Dollar Weak"

By James J. Cramer
12/11/2003 11:06 AM EST



"I blew it last night. I had the Treasury Secretary in the crosshairs, was finally getting at the truth about the "alleged" strong dollar and I didn't pull the trigger. I was thrown off by his nice parry that he thought I was a free-marketer and I went on the defensive instead of lunging.

Darn it all. It happens.


Here's the setup: I wanted to know if Treasury Secretary John Snow wanted the dollar to bottom. I told him that if he did, he simply could call for a "logical" dollar, or a "rational" dollar, which then would get traders even shorter, and then he could give them a quick headbanger intervention to get the dollar to stabilize.

Of course, that's right out of great trader Bob Rubin's playbook. Anyone who remembers the brutal short squeeze that he inflicted when he was Treasury Secretary on those who were leaning against the dollar recalls that it started with Rubin seeming to back away from the call for a strong dollar. He made background chatter about how a reasonable dollar was good. That quick backaway caused the shorts to extend themselves, and then he crushed them. The dollar never looked back.

But what I messed up on was that this administration doesn't want a strong dollar. I was deluding myself. And rather than arguing about how I am indeed a free marketer, I should have shot back at Snow that he's the one who actually is pushing the dollar below its logical level by insisting that other currencies be stronger.

There's no free market to the dollar; he's actually bending it lower with his words and deeds. In fact, the "strong dollar" line has become a joke, code for, of all things, "weak dollar," or else he would have said, "You never know when we might intervene." Just saying that would have caused the dollar to jump.

Why is a stable, strong dollar good? Because we have huge deficits and we need others to finance them. Because a weak currency has never brought economic strength to any country. Because this dollar is starting to cause havoc worldwide.

So anyway, better to admit that I blew it than pretend I handled it well or ignore it. I hope I get another chance.

I bet I won't. "

(in www.realmoney.com)