Cramer: "Momentum Fund Selling May Be Feeding Decline&q
Enviado: 11/12/2003 16:46"Momentum Fund Selling May Be Feeding Decline"
By James J. Cramer
12/11/2003 09:54 AM EST
"Here's a theory behind the selloff of the winners: Mutual funds have such great tax-loss carry-forwards that they can ring the register hard. In past years, the fund industry didn't like taking capital gains at the end of the year and would hold off the selling until January. This time around, they are bailing left and right.
The theory makes sense because the momentum funds racked up tremendous losses. Then they plowed into housing as a momentum play.
Some of you have been blaming short-sellers for these declines in hot areas. I think that's plain wrong. Short-sellers covered these stocks a long time ago, which is the reason the winners are falling so swiftly. The braking mechanism that shorts always provide isn't there.
There's a silver lining here: Eventually, the register-ringing comes to an end, I believe before the end of the year, so these firms don't hurt their year-end performance.
Of course, the selling is augmented by people who are truly worried about rates. But this kind of selling is trademark momentum-fund in nature. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
12/11/2003 09:54 AM EST
"Here's a theory behind the selloff of the winners: Mutual funds have such great tax-loss carry-forwards that they can ring the register hard. In past years, the fund industry didn't like taking capital gains at the end of the year and would hold off the selling until January. This time around, they are bailing left and right.
The theory makes sense because the momentum funds racked up tremendous losses. Then they plowed into housing as a momentum play.
Some of you have been blaming short-sellers for these declines in hot areas. I think that's plain wrong. Short-sellers covered these stocks a long time ago, which is the reason the winners are falling so swiftly. The braking mechanism that shorts always provide isn't there.
There's a silver lining here: Eventually, the register-ringing comes to an end, I believe before the end of the year, so these firms don't hurt their year-end performance.
Of course, the selling is augmented by people who are truly worried about rates. But this kind of selling is trademark momentum-fund in nature. "
(in www.realmoney.com)