FED mantém taxas inalteradas
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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
E continua o interessante debate no Realmoney...
Howard Simons
May 4, 2004: Be There Or Be Square
12/09/03 02:37 PM ET
"The definition of "considerable period," at least according to the folks in the fed funds futures market, is between now and the May 4th FOMC meeting. I guess we'll have to start hearing considerable jawboning before that date arrives.
While the evidence of disinflation may not be apparent on the surface, or even immediately beneath the surface, I do think that the FOMC is concerned about slack loan demand and CP issuance and fears the sort of damage that could occur from tightening too early. It's a grand experiment, true, but one that I understand.
BTW, I was looking in an online thesaurus for interesting synonyms for "considerable," the word du jour. About the best I could come up with was "scopious."
A Fed-basher supporting the Fed"
Aaron Task
tongue-biters
12/09/03 02:36 PM ET
"David, I'm sure there's plenty of other issues a play in Treasuries today (hey, that rhymes) but I wonder if some fixed-income traders weren't disappointed the Fed left in "considerable period." (According to CNBC's Rick Santelli, 2/3 of traders in the Chicago pits thought they'd take it out; WSJ's Jesse Eisigner thought the Fed would "probably" drop the language.)
I know it's not a popular view, but *some* people think the bond market WANTS the Fed to tighten sooner vs. later (due to burgeoning inflation pressures in commodity prices, most notably). Today's statement hints at that, but not as strongly (soon) as it might have had the FOMC removed "considerable period."
seeing inflationary pressures...having paid $25 to park in downtown SF today, and that was at the 'cheaper' place"
David Merkel
Bite My Tongue
12/09/03 02:27 PM ET
"Reaction on the long end of the treasury market is going the opposite way from what I would have expected. It's small, and still early, but I would guess that the effect is from too much of the market getting caught leaning the wrong way, and selling on the news. The change in language also helps fuddle matters.
No position."
(in www.realmoney.com)
Howard Simons
May 4, 2004: Be There Or Be Square
12/09/03 02:37 PM ET
"The definition of "considerable period," at least according to the folks in the fed funds futures market, is between now and the May 4th FOMC meeting. I guess we'll have to start hearing considerable jawboning before that date arrives.
While the evidence of disinflation may not be apparent on the surface, or even immediately beneath the surface, I do think that the FOMC is concerned about slack loan demand and CP issuance and fears the sort of damage that could occur from tightening too early. It's a grand experiment, true, but one that I understand.
BTW, I was looking in an online thesaurus for interesting synonyms for "considerable," the word du jour. About the best I could come up with was "scopious."
A Fed-basher supporting the Fed"
Aaron Task
tongue-biters
12/09/03 02:36 PM ET
"David, I'm sure there's plenty of other issues a play in Treasuries today (hey, that rhymes) but I wonder if some fixed-income traders weren't disappointed the Fed left in "considerable period." (According to CNBC's Rick Santelli, 2/3 of traders in the Chicago pits thought they'd take it out; WSJ's Jesse Eisigner thought the Fed would "probably" drop the language.)
I know it's not a popular view, but *some* people think the bond market WANTS the Fed to tighten sooner vs. later (due to burgeoning inflation pressures in commodity prices, most notably). Today's statement hints at that, but not as strongly (soon) as it might have had the FOMC removed "considerable period."
seeing inflationary pressures...having paid $25 to park in downtown SF today, and that was at the 'cheaper' place"
David Merkel
Bite My Tongue
12/09/03 02:27 PM ET
"Reaction on the long end of the treasury market is going the opposite way from what I would have expected. It's small, and still early, but I would guess that the effect is from too much of the market getting caught leaning the wrong way, and selling on the news. The change in language also helps fuddle matters.
No position."
(in www.realmoney.com)
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re
a conversa de sempre..uahhhh:
Rates to stay low for considerable time: FOMC sees equal risks of deflation, inflation
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 2:15 PM ET Dec. 9, 2003
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- While acknowledging a "briskly" growing U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve renewed its promise Tuesday to keep interest rates low for a "considerable period."
Keeping the language is a strong signal that the Federal Open Market Committee does not intend to raise interest rates as soon as March, as the market now expects.
As expected, the FOMC kept its target interest rate steady at 1 percent. The vote was unanimous.
The risks to economic stability changed, with the risk of deflation and inflation now roughly equal. The Fed had been warning of "unwelcome" disinflation since May. Read the statement.
"With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period," the statement said.
"The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly and the labor market appears to be improving modestly," the committee said.
Despite the evidence of improved labor markets and increased demand for goods and services, the FOMC repeated its assessment that the risks to sustainable growth remain balanced.
The Fed had inserted the language vowing to maintain "policy accommodation ... for a considerable period" in its August statement in an effort to calm market fears that the Fed would begin to raise rates quickly as the economy stabilized and recovered.
Earlier in the year, the markets had anticipated further rate cuts from the Fed, one factor that drove long-term market-set interest rates to their lowest levels since the 1950s.
Those low rates set off a mortgage and home equity boom that helped propel the economy to its fastest growth in more than 20 years in the third quarter.
Since adding the "considerable period" language in August, the financial markets have followed the Fed's script to a T. U.S. stocks are up 9 percent, yields on 10-year Treasurys ($TNX: news, chart, profile) are down 0.15 percentage points and the trade-weighted dollar is off 7.9 percent.
But several members of the FOMC objected to the wording, according to a summary of September meeting. The policymakers argued that it seemed to commit the Fed to hold rates steady for a period of time, rather than letting economic events dictate the timing of the next move higher.
However, the wording remained in both the September and October statements. And now in the December statement as well.
Economists argued that the Fed should begin to prepare the financial markets for higher rates by removing the "considerable period" language well in advance of any expected rate hike.
Others said the language didn't matter, because the words would not constrain the Fed from doing what it thought was the right thing.
The FOMC has lowered the federal funds target rate 13 times since the first rate cut in January 2001 for a total reduction of 5.5 percentage points. The last cut came in June.
The fed funds rate, the primary instrument of monetary policy, is the rate at which banks borrow from each other on an overnight basis to maintain required levels of reserve funds.
By buying and selling Treasurys in its open market operations, the Fed can target the fed funds rate and influence the level of borrowing in the economy.
Rates to stay low for considerable time: FOMC sees equal risks of deflation, inflation
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 2:15 PM ET Dec. 9, 2003
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- While acknowledging a "briskly" growing U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve renewed its promise Tuesday to keep interest rates low for a "considerable period."
Keeping the language is a strong signal that the Federal Open Market Committee does not intend to raise interest rates as soon as March, as the market now expects.
As expected, the FOMC kept its target interest rate steady at 1 percent. The vote was unanimous.
The risks to economic stability changed, with the risk of deflation and inflation now roughly equal. The Fed had been warning of "unwelcome" disinflation since May. Read the statement.
"With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period," the statement said.
"The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly and the labor market appears to be improving modestly," the committee said.
Despite the evidence of improved labor markets and increased demand for goods and services, the FOMC repeated its assessment that the risks to sustainable growth remain balanced.
The Fed had inserted the language vowing to maintain "policy accommodation ... for a considerable period" in its August statement in an effort to calm market fears that the Fed would begin to raise rates quickly as the economy stabilized and recovered.
Earlier in the year, the markets had anticipated further rate cuts from the Fed, one factor that drove long-term market-set interest rates to their lowest levels since the 1950s.
Those low rates set off a mortgage and home equity boom that helped propel the economy to its fastest growth in more than 20 years in the third quarter.
Since adding the "considerable period" language in August, the financial markets have followed the Fed's script to a T. U.S. stocks are up 9 percent, yields on 10-year Treasurys ($TNX: news, chart, profile) are down 0.15 percentage points and the trade-weighted dollar is off 7.9 percent.
But several members of the FOMC objected to the wording, according to a summary of September meeting. The policymakers argued that it seemed to commit the Fed to hold rates steady for a period of time, rather than letting economic events dictate the timing of the next move higher.
However, the wording remained in both the September and October statements. And now in the December statement as well.
Economists argued that the Fed should begin to prepare the financial markets for higher rates by removing the "considerable period" language well in advance of any expected rate hike.
Others said the language didn't matter, because the words would not constrain the Fed from doing what it thought was the right thing.
The FOMC has lowered the federal funds target rate 13 times since the first rate cut in January 2001 for a total reduction of 5.5 percentage points. The last cut came in June.
The fed funds rate, the primary instrument of monetary policy, is the rate at which banks borrow from each other on an overnight basis to maintain required levels of reserve funds.
By buying and selling Treasurys in its open market operations, the Fed can target the fed funds rate and influence the level of borrowing in the economy.
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Info
Aaron Task
FOMC
12/09/03 02:24 PM ET
"they kept the "considerable period" but changed the risk-assesement statement: "The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation."
In sum, the Fed is letting the finanical markets have it both ways (as usual) "
whatever
Christopher Edmonds
Considerable Fed
12/09/03 02:19 PM ET
"If Greenspan were to have a press conference would this be posssible: "After considerable consideration the Fed made no considerable changes but will provide additional consideration in due course about future considerations."
The English language is an amazing tool sometimes! "
(in www.realmoney.com)
FOMC
12/09/03 02:24 PM ET
"they kept the "considerable period" but changed the risk-assesement statement: "The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation."
In sum, the Fed is letting the finanical markets have it both ways (as usual) "
whatever
Christopher Edmonds
Considerable Fed
12/09/03 02:19 PM ET
"If Greenspan were to have a press conference would this be posssible: "After considerable consideration the Fed made no considerable changes but will provide additional consideration in due course about future considerations."
The English language is an amazing tool sometimes! "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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FED mantém taxas inalteradas
A FED acabou de deixar as taxas inalteradas.
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