CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

poe esta é que já me queimam os dedos nos últimos dias para abrir posições longas:

"But when you have a stock up 100% for a year, it has to keep performing miracles to levitate. Otherwise, it must do exactly what Intel is doing: backing and filling, and waiting for the next move."

Ora aí está expresso na INTL o que este mercado está a criar.. expectativas tão altas que qq coisa que venha neste momento e nos próximos tempos terá de ser 'miraculosa' para continuar a levitar estes valores.

Cump.

Artigo muito simples, mas também muito incisivo do Cramer e que acho que retrata bem a situação actual da Intel e de como o mercado funciona...

"Intel Gives Good Update, Fails to Impress"

By James J. Cramer
12/05/2003 07:59 AM EST


"If I was at Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research) right now, I would be sitting back with amazement at how my stock is be acting.

I'd be thinking, huh? Did everyone lose their minds at once? Did the bears take over the media? Did a couple of struggling hedge funds, desperate to knock this market down to make their performance look better, paint the tape with red ink?


First, let's review what really happened in the IM trenches in the world of hedge funds and mutual funds the moment Intel gave its update. I was there. The chatter went like this:

"Hmmm, pretty good."

"Lotta margin expansion."

"Revenues look better."

"Have to like the possibility of 64% gross margins."

"What's this write-off?"

"You know Intel paid too much for those acquisitions in communications in the heyday."

"Oh it is just an old writedown?"

"Something wrong with flash, too."

"Something's always wrong with flash, that's nothing."

"Yeah, it's all good."

"Hold it, the stock's trading down."


"Why's it trading down?"

"Beats me."


"It's trading down again."

"How much now?"

"It's down almost a dollar."

"But the revs are up, the margins are up, the write-offs for old stuff."

"Nope, it's disappointing."

"It's disappointing because the stock's trading down."

"But it's not disappointing."

"Stock says it is going lower."

"Hmm, must be bad, gotta go sell some."

"Yeah, it's real bad."

"Maybe I will sell and go short."

"I am short it now."

There, in a dialogue nutshell, is what happened last night in Intel. There's not much more to it. The update was a good one; the stock just didn't go up. It's been up for a while, and it will be up again because the EPS that results from that midquarter update will still be above consensus.

But when you have a stock up 100% for a year, it has to keep performing miracles to levitate. Otherwise, it must do exactly what Intel is doing: backing and filling, and waiting for the next move. "

(in www.realmoney.com)