Mohan 04/12/03
Enviado: 4/12/2003 14:42On a higher opening and early move up expect further selloff. CAUTION: Possible Bear Ugly day today. If No Bear Ugly day and we get an early, strong sell off we will be looking to buy.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, December 3, 2003:
TCF Trade setup #1: Sell 1069.50 or higher/ Cover on a drop and return to price above entry for small 2-4 pt loss.
TCF Trade setup #2: Sell BreakOut at 1072.00 or higher/ Cover for up to 7-8pts.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us for today's action.
Our Headline Call was looking for the market to sell off if we got a higher opening and early run up in prices which we did. We had advised in the Morning Call on Wednesday that if we saw prices move above the Sell Pivot but not trade beyond 1074.75 to look to short the Sell Pivot for a move down. We had also suggested Selling the BreakOut if the correct TCF setup was there for that action.
Well, Wednesday was a very difficult trading day as we got the early, first setup at the Sell Pivot target as the market gapped up open and ran up BUT missed hitting the 1074.75 price for the stop/pivot (+4.25). Just after getting short you would have seen the market get squashed fast and hard down to the 1066.50 area on a government report that came out. As has been the case the last 2 days prices stabalized and pushed back up again.
As most of you are aware from reading these briefings carefully the last few days we have been positioning for a larger scale sell off but ALSO keeping an eye out for a temporary ABERRATION on that Sell Market Force possibly through Christmas. So as the prices pulled back off the Sell Pivot Target, found support and moved back up back over the Sell Pivot Target we wanted to use caution as the market was "hanging up at the highs" which is a very bullish sign. Usually when you see this occuring it is a sign that the market is going to run up substantially. So with this in mind you would have wanted to cut the short trade taken at the Sell Pivot Target just above the Breakout Price of 1072.00 as the market literally SAT ON 1073 FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
This was a highly nervous trade and with our suggestion that prices holding above the 1067.50 area would throw the Sell Market Force into aberration possibly getting short at the BreakOut would have been a higher risk trade with the NAZ up substantially over +15.
So some of you may have taken the BreakOut trade and if you did after a long, nervous trade we finally saw the Sell Market Force kick in as suggested and drive the prices down into the close.
Again, this was a highly nervous trade, typical of the Christmas season, and with prices Hanging up at the Highs like they were with the NAZ above +15 the chance of a breakout to higher prices was strong and you may have avoided this BreakOut sell. In trading the futures markets you have to PUT SURVIVAL FIRST and apply as many safety valves as you can in order to stay in the trading game. Sometimes the markets trade very mechanically and relatively easily with the TCF setups and sometimes it can be quite a nervous grind.
The best thing is to read great books like Mark Douglas "Trading In the Zone" and also our TCF Traders Affirmations to keep yourself on track and functioning in a centered and peaceful way in the markets.
So on balance if you shorted the Sell pivot target you may have taken a small loss as they climbed back up to Hang up near the highs or if you held in conjunction with the BreakOut Sell after some time the market pulled back and you made up to 7-8 points on that trade.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is another double sided call for the opening and first hour or so of trading action.
If we get a higher opening and an early push up in prices we expect that the market will continue to erode if we have the High Five showing signs of resistance. On a lower opening and early run lower there is a strong chance of finding support and having a reflex rally day today as the Christmas cheer keeps kicking in.
Retailers are feeling good about sales and the overall mood at this time is fairly positive (finally) and this is lending support to the markets. The market has seemed to absorb all the excess reports on the so called terrorism attacks and is not responding much any more to these types of emergencies. However, there is still that lingering feeling of something dramatic happening and it appears to also be keeping a cap on the rallies.
Many of the bulls who are trying to buy into this positive scenario are getting hacked up by these rapid, high speed Bear Market Force drops we have been telling you about and it is not a pretty picture as their stops are getting hammered through hard and fast.
You can see from our work here though that although the downside is NOT getting a lot of profit action (until Wednesday's 11th Hour nervous short) still the short side is not experiencing these hard drops causing panic stops to get run.
So for today watch for this double sided action and lean towards the side of the Bear Market Force indicators kicking in harder and with more force as we move towards the FIRST GOAL LOWER OF 1036-38.00 AREA ON THE DOWNSIDE.
In keepiing with the thread of yesterday's briefing, we are expecting that if prices keep stabalizing and holding above 1067.50 then we will see an aberration on the Sell Market Force which will drive prices up slowly higher as has been the case lately.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: As mentioned in the Headline Call be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day today with some surprise bad news that sends the markets reeling lower.
If this does NOT occur then let's be ready to buy the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One pivot hit on a lower opening and lower early move. If the High Five is very bearish then we would look to subtract 2-4 points from the Hour One low and make our move to get long there. Good luck.
If we hit the BreakOut FIRST there is a good chance that we could have a BreakOut Buy day where the market moves back up off the Hour One High and gives us some profit making new highs for the week. This would require the TCF setup conditions to be there as described in our Trading Handbook.
Value Area: 1,068.40 - 1,074.00
The most volume was facilitated at these levels on Wednesday and the market closed below here which is bearish. If the prices can stay below this zone today then there should be pressure on the market to the downside.
Pushing up into this zone and then falling back out to the downside is also another important sign of weakness.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,061.50 - 1,062.50
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch for the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1057.25 to either give us some new support or get hammered through to the downside. Although I favor the downside on a larger scale down move occuring we need to remember that there is still a case for higher prices going into Christmas.
Because things are looking up yet we have this strong Sell Market Force looming as shown by our 18 proprietary indicators this is causing the feeling of these "STUCK MARKETS" right now.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,071.25 - 1,070.25
No trade directly at this target today. Compare it with the BreakOut price and see if we get a move up here that fails again and pushes lower with a corresponding High Five.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,052.80
We are closing in on the Pit Bull and this will be the test if we are going to get the full Sell Force expected. Prices should at firt find strong support here but then we will be watching to see if a "line in the sand" is drawn or we move up from here.
As mentioned above, as the sell force kicks in our first goal lower will be the 1036-38 area.
Pro Trader's Action
Please be a little extra cautious in these Christmas Holiday markets. You can see how radical some of the moves are becoming as the two opposing forces go to war over market bias.
We want to lean towards the Sell side bias yet be willing to honor an aberratioin on that Sell Force if the market continues to hold above 1067.50 and moves higher. We are no where near that decision point after today's trading and that is why we have exercised more caution that normal on today's trade and comments. There are hundreds of trading days available next year in 2004 where the market will move smoothly in our favor following our TCF setups. By taking a bit more caution now and erring on the side of CAPITAL PRESERVATION and safety we will be around for the New Year and far beyond.
This is what mature and experienced traders KNOW AND LIVE BY. The beginners want every damn dime out of the markets even at the risk of blowing out of the business. This is what separates the Pros from the Amateurs. PLAIN AND SIMPLE: THE PROS UNDERSTAND HOW DANGEROUS AND RISKY TRADING THE S&P500 IS AND LOOK TO PRESERVE CAPITAL FIRST.
So let's be a bit more cautious while these Market Forces are dueling it out. You'll thank me later when you are still in the game and you hear about other traders who blew it all on the Christmas Craziness in the markets.
All the best of luck and success today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, December 3, 2003:
TCF Trade setup #1: Sell 1069.50 or higher/ Cover on a drop and return to price above entry for small 2-4 pt loss.
TCF Trade setup #2: Sell BreakOut at 1072.00 or higher/ Cover for up to 7-8pts.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us for today's action.
Our Headline Call was looking for the market to sell off if we got a higher opening and early run up in prices which we did. We had advised in the Morning Call on Wednesday that if we saw prices move above the Sell Pivot but not trade beyond 1074.75 to look to short the Sell Pivot for a move down. We had also suggested Selling the BreakOut if the correct TCF setup was there for that action.
Well, Wednesday was a very difficult trading day as we got the early, first setup at the Sell Pivot target as the market gapped up open and ran up BUT missed hitting the 1074.75 price for the stop/pivot (+4.25). Just after getting short you would have seen the market get squashed fast and hard down to the 1066.50 area on a government report that came out. As has been the case the last 2 days prices stabalized and pushed back up again.
As most of you are aware from reading these briefings carefully the last few days we have been positioning for a larger scale sell off but ALSO keeping an eye out for a temporary ABERRATION on that Sell Market Force possibly through Christmas. So as the prices pulled back off the Sell Pivot Target, found support and moved back up back over the Sell Pivot Target we wanted to use caution as the market was "hanging up at the highs" which is a very bullish sign. Usually when you see this occuring it is a sign that the market is going to run up substantially. So with this in mind you would have wanted to cut the short trade taken at the Sell Pivot Target just above the Breakout Price of 1072.00 as the market literally SAT ON 1073 FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
This was a highly nervous trade and with our suggestion that prices holding above the 1067.50 area would throw the Sell Market Force into aberration possibly getting short at the BreakOut would have been a higher risk trade with the NAZ up substantially over +15.
So some of you may have taken the BreakOut trade and if you did after a long, nervous trade we finally saw the Sell Market Force kick in as suggested and drive the prices down into the close.
Again, this was a highly nervous trade, typical of the Christmas season, and with prices Hanging up at the Highs like they were with the NAZ above +15 the chance of a breakout to higher prices was strong and you may have avoided this BreakOut sell. In trading the futures markets you have to PUT SURVIVAL FIRST and apply as many safety valves as you can in order to stay in the trading game. Sometimes the markets trade very mechanically and relatively easily with the TCF setups and sometimes it can be quite a nervous grind.
The best thing is to read great books like Mark Douglas "Trading In the Zone" and also our TCF Traders Affirmations to keep yourself on track and functioning in a centered and peaceful way in the markets.
So on balance if you shorted the Sell pivot target you may have taken a small loss as they climbed back up to Hang up near the highs or if you held in conjunction with the BreakOut Sell after some time the market pulled back and you made up to 7-8 points on that trade.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is another double sided call for the opening and first hour or so of trading action.
If we get a higher opening and an early push up in prices we expect that the market will continue to erode if we have the High Five showing signs of resistance. On a lower opening and early run lower there is a strong chance of finding support and having a reflex rally day today as the Christmas cheer keeps kicking in.
Retailers are feeling good about sales and the overall mood at this time is fairly positive (finally) and this is lending support to the markets. The market has seemed to absorb all the excess reports on the so called terrorism attacks and is not responding much any more to these types of emergencies. However, there is still that lingering feeling of something dramatic happening and it appears to also be keeping a cap on the rallies.
Many of the bulls who are trying to buy into this positive scenario are getting hacked up by these rapid, high speed Bear Market Force drops we have been telling you about and it is not a pretty picture as their stops are getting hammered through hard and fast.
You can see from our work here though that although the downside is NOT getting a lot of profit action (until Wednesday's 11th Hour nervous short) still the short side is not experiencing these hard drops causing panic stops to get run.
So for today watch for this double sided action and lean towards the side of the Bear Market Force indicators kicking in harder and with more force as we move towards the FIRST GOAL LOWER OF 1036-38.00 AREA ON THE DOWNSIDE.
In keepiing with the thread of yesterday's briefing, we are expecting that if prices keep stabalizing and holding above 1067.50 then we will see an aberration on the Sell Market Force which will drive prices up slowly higher as has been the case lately.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: As mentioned in the Headline Call be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day today with some surprise bad news that sends the markets reeling lower.
If this does NOT occur then let's be ready to buy the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One pivot hit on a lower opening and lower early move. If the High Five is very bearish then we would look to subtract 2-4 points from the Hour One low and make our move to get long there. Good luck.
If we hit the BreakOut FIRST there is a good chance that we could have a BreakOut Buy day where the market moves back up off the Hour One High and gives us some profit making new highs for the week. This would require the TCF setup conditions to be there as described in our Trading Handbook.
Value Area: 1,068.40 - 1,074.00
The most volume was facilitated at these levels on Wednesday and the market closed below here which is bearish. If the prices can stay below this zone today then there should be pressure on the market to the downside.
Pushing up into this zone and then falling back out to the downside is also another important sign of weakness.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,061.50 - 1,062.50
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch for the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1057.25 to either give us some new support or get hammered through to the downside. Although I favor the downside on a larger scale down move occuring we need to remember that there is still a case for higher prices going into Christmas.
Because things are looking up yet we have this strong Sell Market Force looming as shown by our 18 proprietary indicators this is causing the feeling of these "STUCK MARKETS" right now.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,071.25 - 1,070.25
No trade directly at this target today. Compare it with the BreakOut price and see if we get a move up here that fails again and pushes lower with a corresponding High Five.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,052.80
We are closing in on the Pit Bull and this will be the test if we are going to get the full Sell Force expected. Prices should at firt find strong support here but then we will be watching to see if a "line in the sand" is drawn or we move up from here.
As mentioned above, as the sell force kicks in our first goal lower will be the 1036-38 area.
Pro Trader's Action
Please be a little extra cautious in these Christmas Holiday markets. You can see how radical some of the moves are becoming as the two opposing forces go to war over market bias.
We want to lean towards the Sell side bias yet be willing to honor an aberratioin on that Sell Force if the market continues to hold above 1067.50 and moves higher. We are no where near that decision point after today's trading and that is why we have exercised more caution that normal on today's trade and comments. There are hundreds of trading days available next year in 2004 where the market will move smoothly in our favor following our TCF setups. By taking a bit more caution now and erring on the side of CAPITAL PRESERVATION and safety we will be around for the New Year and far beyond.
This is what mature and experienced traders KNOW AND LIVE BY. The beginners want every damn dime out of the markets even at the risk of blowing out of the business. This is what separates the Pros from the Amateurs. PLAIN AND SIMPLE: THE PROS UNDERSTAND HOW DANGEROUS AND RISKY TRADING THE S&P500 IS AND LOOK TO PRESERVE CAPITAL FIRST.
So let's be a bit more cautious while these Market Forces are dueling it out. You'll thank me later when you are still in the game and you hear about other traders who blew it all on the Christmas Craziness in the markets.
All the best of luck and success today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan