E já começou a guerra (de palavras) cambial
Enviado: 21/11/2003 10:07Numa grande surpresa para muitos, contrariando até posições oficiais recentes, a Alemanha segue as pisadas do Japão e tenta influenciar os mercados pelo discurso. O chanceler Alemão falará dentro de minutos numa entrevista à Bloomberg Alemã, afirmando que um dólar forte é do interesse da Europa e dos Estados Unidos.
Portanto, veremos até que ponto, o mercado se deixará influenciar por esta postura.
Não deixa de ser interessante o facto de surgir este novo discurso quando o Euro está em cima dos máximos face ao dólar. Parece que o 1.20 assusta os exportadores da zona Euro.
Abraços
dj
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said a rebound in the dollar, which dropped to a record low against the euro this week, would benefit Europe and the U.S. by boosting European exports and curbing American deficits.
``Both sides have an interest in more favorable exchange rates,'' Schroeder said in a televised interview with Bloomberg News in New York. ``Nobody has an interest in a weak dollar.''
The dollar has declined 12 percent against the euro this year. The U.S. currency fell Thursday to $1.1980, the lowest since the euro was introduced in 1999. The dollar has also dropped against 14 of 16 major currencies including the Swiss franc and the British pound.
Germany's $2.3 trillion economy, Europe's largest, emerged from recession in the third quarter as an increase in exports compensated for a slump in domestic demand. The dependence on sales overseas raised concern that the euro's increase to a record may stifle the recovery in coming months.
The euro's gains against the U.S. currency make it harder for European exporters such as BASF AG and Volkswagen AG to compete on price in markets outside the 12-nation currency region. The U.S., whose exporters benefit from the dollar's decline, is becoming increasingly reliant on foreign investors to finance widening budget and current account deficits.
`Too Fast'
The dollar rose against the euro after Schroeder's remarks. The euro bought $1.1891 at 7:30 a.m. in Frankfurt, down 0.2 percent from $1.1911 yesterday.
``This is a signal he felt the euro has gained too fast and too much recently,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who helps manage $1 billion in overseas debt at Tokyo's Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest brokerage.
Schroeder said he doesn't think the U.S. is seeking to keep the dollar low to bolster exports and boost growth. A nation's currency reflects the strength of its economy, he said.
``The U.S. can't have an interest in that, at the very least because they have a twin deficit on their current account and trade balance and are dependent on capital inflows,'' Schroeder said. ``I don't believe there is an intentional policy of a weak dollar.''
The U.S. federal budget shortfall reached a record $374 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. The current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade and investment, reached a record $138.7 billion in the second quarter, or 5.1 percent of gross domestic product on an annualized basis. Exports account for 10 percent of the U.S. economy.
U.S. Deficit
The U.S. Treasury Department said on Tuesday foreigners bought a net $4.19 billion in September, down from $49.9 billion in August. The U.S. has had to borrow more money overseas to satisfy demand for imported goods and services to finance investment not covered by U.S. savings.
A drop in the amount of securities bought by international investors makes it harder for the U.S. to finance its current- account deficit.
The U.S. also benefits from a falling dollar because machine tools, autos, chemicals and other exports become cheaper in other countries. Atlanta-based United Parcel Service Inc., the world's largest package-delivery company, said that currency-related gains boosted its revenue by $79 million in the third-quarter and its profit by $18 million compared with the year-ago period.
Global Growth
For European exporters, the currency moves have the opposite effect. The rising euro slashed pretax profit at Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, by 1.2 billion euros in the first nine months. French rival PSA Peugeot-Citroen SA lowered its full-year profit forecast last month, partly because of the euro.
The acceleration in global growth has helped compensate for the euro's increase. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.2 percent in the third quarter, the fastest pace in almost two decades. Growth in China accelerated to 9.1 percent from 6.7 percent in the previous quarter. And Japan's economy grew for a seventh quarter, the longest expansion since 1997.
French Finance Minister Francis Mer told the LCI television channel yesterday that the falling dollar ``is of secondary importance compared with the economic recovery.'' If the euro stays above $1.20, ``that would start causing a number of problems,'' Mer told reporters in Paris on Wednesday.
A 1 percent increase in U.S. industrial production boosts German exports to the world's largest economy by 1.7 percent, the German IWH economic research institute said last month. By comparison, a 1 percent gain in the euro cuts U.S. demand for German goods by only 1 percent, the study showed.
``Given what I know and what has been said by business representatives, an acute threat to German exports is not to be feared,'' Schroeder said.
The interview will be aired in full at 11:35 a.m. Berlin time on Bloomberg's German television channel.
Portanto, veremos até que ponto, o mercado se deixará influenciar por esta postura.
Não deixa de ser interessante o facto de surgir este novo discurso quando o Euro está em cima dos máximos face ao dólar. Parece que o 1.20 assusta os exportadores da zona Euro.
Abraços
dj
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said a rebound in the dollar, which dropped to a record low against the euro this week, would benefit Europe and the U.S. by boosting European exports and curbing American deficits.
``Both sides have an interest in more favorable exchange rates,'' Schroeder said in a televised interview with Bloomberg News in New York. ``Nobody has an interest in a weak dollar.''
The dollar has declined 12 percent against the euro this year. The U.S. currency fell Thursday to $1.1980, the lowest since the euro was introduced in 1999. The dollar has also dropped against 14 of 16 major currencies including the Swiss franc and the British pound.
Germany's $2.3 trillion economy, Europe's largest, emerged from recession in the third quarter as an increase in exports compensated for a slump in domestic demand. The dependence on sales overseas raised concern that the euro's increase to a record may stifle the recovery in coming months.
The euro's gains against the U.S. currency make it harder for European exporters such as BASF AG and Volkswagen AG to compete on price in markets outside the 12-nation currency region. The U.S., whose exporters benefit from the dollar's decline, is becoming increasingly reliant on foreign investors to finance widening budget and current account deficits.
`Too Fast'
The dollar rose against the euro after Schroeder's remarks. The euro bought $1.1891 at 7:30 a.m. in Frankfurt, down 0.2 percent from $1.1911 yesterday.
``This is a signal he felt the euro has gained too fast and too much recently,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who helps manage $1 billion in overseas debt at Tokyo's Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest brokerage.
Schroeder said he doesn't think the U.S. is seeking to keep the dollar low to bolster exports and boost growth. A nation's currency reflects the strength of its economy, he said.
``The U.S. can't have an interest in that, at the very least because they have a twin deficit on their current account and trade balance and are dependent on capital inflows,'' Schroeder said. ``I don't believe there is an intentional policy of a weak dollar.''
The U.S. federal budget shortfall reached a record $374 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. The current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade and investment, reached a record $138.7 billion in the second quarter, or 5.1 percent of gross domestic product on an annualized basis. Exports account for 10 percent of the U.S. economy.
U.S. Deficit
The U.S. Treasury Department said on Tuesday foreigners bought a net $4.19 billion in September, down from $49.9 billion in August. The U.S. has had to borrow more money overseas to satisfy demand for imported goods and services to finance investment not covered by U.S. savings.
A drop in the amount of securities bought by international investors makes it harder for the U.S. to finance its current- account deficit.
The U.S. also benefits from a falling dollar because machine tools, autos, chemicals and other exports become cheaper in other countries. Atlanta-based United Parcel Service Inc., the world's largest package-delivery company, said that currency-related gains boosted its revenue by $79 million in the third-quarter and its profit by $18 million compared with the year-ago period.
Global Growth
For European exporters, the currency moves have the opposite effect. The rising euro slashed pretax profit at Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, by 1.2 billion euros in the first nine months. French rival PSA Peugeot-Citroen SA lowered its full-year profit forecast last month, partly because of the euro.
The acceleration in global growth has helped compensate for the euro's increase. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.2 percent in the third quarter, the fastest pace in almost two decades. Growth in China accelerated to 9.1 percent from 6.7 percent in the previous quarter. And Japan's economy grew for a seventh quarter, the longest expansion since 1997.
French Finance Minister Francis Mer told the LCI television channel yesterday that the falling dollar ``is of secondary importance compared with the economic recovery.'' If the euro stays above $1.20, ``that would start causing a number of problems,'' Mer told reporters in Paris on Wednesday.
A 1 percent increase in U.S. industrial production boosts German exports to the world's largest economy by 1.7 percent, the German IWH economic research institute said last month. By comparison, a 1 percent gain in the euro cuts U.S. demand for German goods by only 1 percent, the study showed.
``Given what I know and what has been said by business representatives, an acute threat to German exports is not to be feared,'' Schroeder said.
The interview will be aired in full at 11:35 a.m. Berlin time on Bloomberg's German television channel.